A Pair of Totals Plays to a Make Manic Monday for the Bookie

Mark Lathrop

Monday, September 18, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 18, 2017 12:27 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper analyzes the short Monday MLB betting card and finds two games which should go Over the listed total. Read on as we see where the runs will be scored as Mark Lathrop makes his MLB Picks of the Day.

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Our MLB handicapper doesn’t know why Matt Harvey is starting for the Mets at this point in the season as he is completely ineffective. All he knows is that we should take advantage of the situation as presented on Monday night.

Matt Harvey & Mets vs. Dan Straily & Marlins

Matt Harvey was really good and now he is really bad. It’s a sad thing to see talent ruined by injury, but here we are with a 28-year old pitcher who has had his best years behind him. His control has completely abandoned him this year, and he has a 4.46 BB/9 rate on the season and a 1.57 WHIP through 80.2 innings pitched. He also has a 20.2% HR/FB rate, which is more than double any other season in his career. Along with his 6.08 FIP rate that is also about double his career high, I can tell that this pitcher is broken.

Dan Straily gets the start opposite of Harvey for the Marlins, and he has been perfectly average on the season. He has an average 9-9 record, average 12.1% HR/FB rate, and average 4.50 FIP. However, Straily hasn’t been average at all over the 2nd half of the season, as he’s been much worse. Since the All-Star break, Straily has a .310 BAA, 1.62 WHIP, and 5.32 FIP. His line drive rate has also climbed to 23.4% from 15.8% in the first half of the season. With two pitchers we can’t trust here I’m looking to Over 8.5 runs as one of my Monday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs Best Line Offered (-115) at 5Dimes

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With a successful system of picking Over totals listed under 7 on the year, our MLB handicapper looks at the lowest total on Monday’s short card with the same approach in mind.

Kershaw and LA Dodgers vs. Pivetta and Philadelphia Phillies

I’ve picked the Over in quite a few of Clayton Kershaw’s starts this year, as they have come in under 7 often. That is not the case this week, as he’s facing a 7.5 run mark on Monday night in Philadelphia. The starter he is going up against has a lot to be desired though, and I think that if Kershaw and the Dodgers pitching staff give up 2-3 runs we will have a decent chance of going over the mark. They do average 3.7 runs against per game, after all.

Starting for the Phillies in this game is Nick Pivetta, owner of a .287 BAA and 1.57 WHIP on the season. Walks have been an issue all year, and he has a 3.80 BB/9 rate to show for it. The rookie has seen his game decline as the season has worn on as well. In the 2nd half Pivetta carries an 8.84 ERA, .315 BAA, and 1.70 WHIP. Giving up 13 runs in his last two starts, I could see him getting touched for more tha a few runs here against the superior Dodgers lineup. With a low bar of 7.5 runs listed I’ll take the Over as another Monday MLB selection.

MLB Pick: Over 7.5 Runs Best Line Offered (+101) at Pinnacle

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2017 MLB Record, 201-179-10, +8.26 units

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