A Low Score Seems Guaranteed With Pitching Duel In Royals & Marlins Matchup

Yordano Ventura

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 23, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

An interesting pitching matchup happens tonight as the Royals visit the Marlins. Ventura and Cashner add great value to backing the under, our handicapper looks closer at this game and provides his pick.

MLB odds have come out with the total between 7.5 and 8 across the board for this matchup. For my MLB pick, I'm going to grab a little bit of value and not pay the higher juice by taking the under total of 7.5 like at Heritage for -105. Other places have the under at 8 (-125) but I really think we're going to see a low-scoring affair.

 

Shop Live Odds For Royals vs Marlins 

 

Kansas City Royals
Yordano Ventura takes the mound with a road 4.54 ERA, 3-6 record, with batters hitting .248 against him. On a cursory glance, his numbers on the road are not that good but recently he has been pitching very well and should have some momentum and confidence to pitch well today. Since two really tough outings at the end of June and the beginning of July versus the Cardinals and the Phillies he has seemed to have turned a corner in his last eight starts on the mound. In his last five starts, he has been solid allowing just 10 earned runs total in over 30 innings of work. What he struggles with at times is giving up home runs but he is facing a Miami team without Giancarlo Stanton as well as a team ranking in the bottom of the league in home runs per game. 

At the plate, Kansas City has been rolling as they are currently on an eight-game winning streak. They are hitting their stride at the right time, however, statistically overall their numbers drop quite a bit on the road as they hit just .248 when they travel compared to hitting over .280 in Kansas City. I expect them to put up at least a couple runs tonight but for this game to overall stay under this total.

 

Miami Marlins
Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Miami with a 4.92 ERA and 1.46 whip and has lost his last four starts for the Marlins. Cashner had quite a bit of success while pitching for San Diego but over the course of this last year, he has not been quite as effective. In his last 10 starts, he has had two really rough outings both of those on the road at Los Angeles and Colorado. He struggled a little bit in his last home start versus the White Sox giving up four earned runs in five innings, however, in his last start at Cincinnati, he pitched extremely well allowing one earned run off of five hits in five innings. He has the capability of keeping teams low in the numbers and his pitching at home statistics combined between San Diego and Miami are decent with a 3.70 ERA. 

Offensively Miami took a big hit losing Stanton for the rest of the season but for the most part they are still a productive team. Surprisingly they actually don't hit as well in Miami compared to on the road as they hit .281 on the road compared to just .257 at home. They could have some difficulty tonight against Ventura who, as mentioned, has been pitching well in his last few starts.

 

July record: 13-9
August record: 10-9
Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Miami under 7.5 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage and at 5Dimes

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