A Kershaw Win Priced at -377: Bet Phillies vs. Dodgers Run Total

David Lawrence

Wednesday, July 8, 2015 11:24 AM GMT

The LA Dodgers lost Tuesday's game rather easily despite being a -260 favorite on the MLB lines while hosting the lousy Philadelphia Phillies. Is it best to avoid Money Line MLB Picks here?

Momentum
The Phillies have rarely if ever had any kind of good momentum this season. The 2015 season has been one uninterrupted horror show for the Phillies, who have undergone changes in their front office and have pushed former manager Ryne Sandberg out the door. The Phillies are shells of their former selves. The team that, five years ago, was a reliable bet to win the National League East is now one of the worst teams in baseball, with a record more than 20 games under .500. The Phillies have barely any hitting, and that starting rotation they once had (Roy Halliday, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee) has now been reduced to Cole Hamels and very few other outstanding pitchers. The Phillies lost a series this past weekend in Atlanta against the Braves. They came to Los Angeles for the first game of this series on Monday and took a 5-3 lead early on. The Dodgers, whose starting rotation has been harmed by injuries, gave way to a “bullpen by committee” approach, putting Los Angeles in a very vulnerable condition. However, the Phillies could not take advantage of it. The Dodgers broke a 7-7 tie in the seventh inning and went on to score double-figure runs in a comeback victory. The game was representative of the Phillies’ season.

The Dodgers have the feel-good moment of winning that game on Monday, but let’s not get carried away with how the Dodgers have been playing. They lost a three-game series at home over the weekend against a New York Mets team that had been having major problems scoring runs. The Dodgers are not playing great baseball; they’re only better than the Phillies.

 

Pitching Matchup
With this matchup, you’d think the Dodgers will win, but then again, you might have been betting on the Dodgers in the last four games Clayton Kershaw has started. Kershaw is the defending National League Cy Young Award winner and National League MVP winner. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game, and even though this season has been below his standards, it’s still a decent season, with an ERA of 3.08 and a very strong WHIP of 1.04. Kershaw has struck out 147 batters. He has struck out at least seven hitters in each of his last 10 games, at least 10 hitters in six of his last 10 games. He still makes hitters look bad, and he has given up a grand total of just five earned runs in his last three starts, encompassing 21 innings of work. Yet, the Dodgers are 0-3 in those games, because Los Angeles has scored a total of only five runs in those three games. Kershaw has been a rough-luck pitcher. Can that run of bad luck continue in this game?

Philadelphia is sending a young pitcher, Adam Morgan, to the hill. Morgan has a 2.13 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, but those numbers are based on only two starts and 12 2/3 total innings. It remains to be seen how strong and how effective Morgan really is as a big-league pitcher.

 

What’s The Pick?
Do you really want to get burned with these juicy MLB odds – especially knowing that Kershaw has not won for bettors in his last four games? Plus, the Phillies are somewhat respectable against lefties, batting .263 against them (seventh in the big leagues). The Dodgers have scored just eight runs in Kershaw’s last four starts while the Phillies are 20th in the MLB in road average, 26th in road OPS and dead last in road home runs. The smart MLB pick is an under.

MLB Pick: Under at Bovada