9/3 MLB Picks Focused on Stellar Starting Pitching Matchup

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, September 3, 2014 12:01 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 3, 2014 12:01 PM UTC

Our resident MLB betting odds guru examines a pair of stellar starting pitching matchups today in his constant quest for wagering value. Read his article to find out who he gives the betting edges to in the games between the Mariners/A’s and Brewers/Cubs.

Mariners vs. A’s 3:35 PM ET
The Mariners will go with their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound this afternoon. “King Felix” is coming off a rare bad start in his last outing in which he allowed more than 4 earned runs in a game for the first time this season during an 8-3 home loss to Washington. Hernandez allowed 5 earned runs on 10-hits, and he surrendered a whopping 4 home runs in 7.0 innings of work. The good news is that the Mariners hurler is a perfect 6-0 against the money in day games this season, with an excellent 1.58 ERA, and a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s also a perfect 4-0 against the money versus Oakland in 2014 with a solid 2.43 ERA.

The A’s will go with super southpaw Jon Lester on the hill for this matinee affair. Lester has also been brilliant in day games this season, posting a superb 2.36 ERA, and 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those 11-outings. The veteran has also posted a sparkling 1.84 ERA in 14-starts combined at home this season with Boston and Oakland. Lester has seen just 3 of those 14-appearances at home go over the total. This will be Lester’s first start of the season versus Seattle. Since 2012 he’s posted a 4.05 ERA in 3-starts versus the Mariners.

Advantage: This one is an extremely close call. However, because of the success that Felix Hernandez has had versus the A’s in 2014, and his flawless pitching line during day-games, he gets my small lean. My betting edge to apply at a trusted sportsbook like BetOnline goes to Felix Hernandez of Seattle over Jon Lester of Oakland in this afternoon’s game.

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Brewers vs. Cubs 8:05 PM ET
The Brewers will go with veteran right-hander Matt Garza on the mound this evening. He’s been in magnificent form over his last 3-starts, with a microscopic 0.86 ERA and a 0.54 WHIP. Somehow the Brewers managed to lose 2 of those 3-games. The bad news is that he’s struggled a bit on the road this season, going 4-7 against the money, with a lofty 4.41 ERA. In 2-starts versus the Cubs this season he’s posted a solid 3.21 ERA and both of those games stayed under the total.

The Cubs will counter with a real up and comer in right-hander Kyle Hendricks. The youngster has been terrific since being called up from the minors, going 8-1 against the money, and with a 2.06 ERA. He’s been lights out in 4-starts at Wrigley Field with a fabulous 1.19 ERA. In his 1-start versus the Brewers this season, he allowed 0 earned runs on 6-hits in 7 1/3 innings of work, and it came during a 3-0 Cubs win.

Advantage: It’s hard to ignore how good Matt Garza has been in recent starts. It’s even harder to look away from how dominating Matt Hendricks has been after only 9-starts in the major leagues. For one of my MLB picks today, the edge goes to Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs over Matt Garza of the Brewers.

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