8/8 Pitching Report for MLB Bettors

Ross Benjamin

Friday, August 8, 2014 12:12 PM UTC

Friday, Aug. 8, 2014 12:12 PM UTC

Our MLB betting expert deciphers a pair of starting pitching confrontations in his quest to uncover true betting value. Take the sports betting advice of a true pro for your MLB picks tonight before betting on Tigers/Jays & Dodgers/Brewers. 

Detroit Tigers (Sanchez) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Dickey) 705 PM ET
The Tigers starter Annibal Sanchez has quietly turned in a nice season for the Tigers. He’s posted a very good 3.37 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his 20-starts in 2014. When I broke down his performance line, I discovered some very interesting splits. The Tigers hurler has been better on the road (2.95 ERA) than at home (4.12 ERA). He’s also been superior at night (2.99 ERA) as opposed to during the day (4.15 ERA). He was exceptional in his previous start last Sunday versus the Colorado Rockies at Comerica Park in Detroit. Sanchez tossed 7.0 innings of scoreless baseball, allowed just 2-hits, struck out 12, and didn’t issue a walk. The Tigers right-hander has allowed just 4 home runs in 120 1/3 innings this season. That’s incredible numbers for a starter, and it equates to 1-homer allowed per 30.1 innings pitched.

The Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey has posted a lofty 5.00 ERA over his last 4-starts despite having a stellar 1.07 WHIP in those outings. The veteran Knuckleball specialist has been victimized by the long ball this season, and especially at home (14 HRS/76.0 IP). Dickey has allowed 17 home runs over his last 15-starts, including 11 in his last 6 at the Rogers Centre. Since his Cy Young Award winning season in 2012 with the Mets, the Toronto right-hander has surrendered 55 home runs in 376 2/3 innings.

Advantage:  With Dickey’s vulnerability in giving up the long ball, and having to face a powerful Tigers lineup this evening, it certainly isn’t an ideal matchup the Blue Jays hurler. Contrarily, as I alluded to earlier, Sanchez has been much better on the road in addition being more effective at night. My nod here goes to Annibal Sanchez over R.A. Dickey.

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Los Angeles Dodgers (Beckett) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Lohse) 8:10 PM ET


Beckett Scratched for the Dodgers
The Dodgers scratched Josh Beckett from his scheduled start tonight in favor of newly acquired Roberto Hernandez. The 33-year old Hernandez comes over from the Phillies where he was 9-11 against the money this season with a 3.93 ERA. The veteran right-hander displayed very good form in his last 4-starts prior to the trade. He posted a stellar 1.88 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, and went 3-1 against the money in those 4-starts. My lean remains on this game going under the total, and has become a bit stronger as a result of the pitching change.


The Dodgers starter Josh Beckett has been in lousy form over his last 3-starts posting a large 8.25 ERA, a 2.33 WHIP, while surrendering 5 home runs in just 12.0 innings. Despite going just 9-11 against the money this season, Beckett has posted a stellar 2.88 ERA on the year. In 8-starts on the road in 2014 he’s compiled an exceptional 2.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also gone 5-1 versus the money in his last 6-starts on the road. Unfortunately in his last appearance on the road he was banged around by the Pirates, and it snapped a string of 4 straight starts on the road where he didn’t allow an earned run, including tossing a no-hitter at Philadelphia on May 25th.

The Brewers starter Kyle Lohse has hit a temporary rough patch over his last 3-starts, evidenced by his lofty 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in those outings. On a positive note, Lohse has gone 15-8 against the money this season with a solid 3.40 ERA. He’s pitched extremely well in 9-starts at Miller Park in Milwaukee, illustrated by a super performance line which includes a 2.32 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a better than 8:1 strikeout to walk ratio. It must be noted that he’s coming off his worst performance of the year in his previous start at St. Louis when he allowed 7 earned runs and 9-hits in 4.0 innings.

Advantage:  This one is an extremely tough call. Beckett pitches better on the road, Lohse has a similar plight at home, and both guys enter tonight not so sharp in recent starts. Here’s the deciding factor for me. These teams have gone under the total in 14 of their last 20-meetings including 9 of the last 11 at Miller Park. I’m going with a small lean on this one playing on the low side of the total at Bet365.

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