Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
World Series Game 6
Tuesday, October 27, 2020 – 8:08 pm EST – Globe Life Field
- Rays: Blake Snell (4-3 3.24 ERA; Postseason: 2-2 3.33 ERA)
- Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (2-2 2.31 ERA; Postseason: 0-2 9.39 ERA)
We’ve made it to Game 6. The Dodgers lead 3-2 in the series and have a chance to be crowned world champions in the MLB in 2020. After a night off, both teams have well-rested bullpens and teams eager to get back on the field. The Rays will pitch their ace starter Blake Snell who is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA in the postseason. Snell went 4.2 innings against the Dodgers in Game 2 and allowed two earned runs along with four walks and two hits, including a home run.
Snell broke down late in the 5th inning, but he also had nine strikeouts on 88 pitches. The Dodgers struggled to hit Snell. It had to feel good for snell. Although he was one out away from getting a win, he had been struggling to get a high amount of strikeouts before that start. In the previous three starts, he went 14 innings with just 10 strikeouts.
Then against the Dodgers he struck out nine in 4.2 innings. In the postseason, Snell has been solid. He’s thrown 24.1 innings and has allowed eight hits along with nine runs including five home runs. The walks are beginning to creep up at 14 in five games but he also has 28 strikeouts and a solid amount of grounders. In his five postseason games, he’s helped the Rays trade wins in his starts.
The Rays are 3-2 and have won, lost, won, lost, won with him on the mound. If that trend continues, the Dodgers would be crowned champions tonight. Those trends don’t actually matter though. What matters is that Snell has thrown eight walks in 8.2 innings in the postseason. That’s basically nine walks per nine innings. Once per inning.
The other thing that matters is that Snell, an ace pitcher of the Rays, hasn’t gone six innings at all in 2020 including the regular season. Snell usually starts games off well. In the regular season, he held batters to a .140 average when they faced him for the first time in the game. However, when batters got a second and third opportunity, his average spiked from .140 to over .300. That’s what happened against the Dodgers in his first start.
On the other side, Tony Gonsolin will get the start for the Dodgers with the chance to help lead the Dodgers to a World Series celebration. Dave Roberts, coach of the Dodgers, hinted that this wouldn’t be just a filler, one-inning start. He wants the Baseball America Rookie of the Year to hopefully pitch longer. When you go out there knowing you’re only pitching a certain amount of innings, it can get to you.
Gonsolin hasn’t looked good at all this postseason. He’s had a short leash and hasn’t been able to settle in and settle down. So far, he’s thrown 7.2 innings and allowed eight hits on six hits and seven walks. He’s also allowed 16 fly balls to just four ground balls in those 7.2 innings. But Gonsolin literally allowed just one home run in 1.1 innings along with a walk against the Rays in his first start. In the regular season, that wouldn’t warrant an exit.
We’re talking about one of the best rookies in baseball this season. We’re talking about a pitcher who threw nine games and eight starts, holding batters to a .193 average. We’re talking about a pitcher who allowed just two home runs all regular season and struck out 46 in 46.2 innings. If Gonsolin is able to get his feel for the game, if he’s able to get comfortable on the mound, we should see the premier rookie we saw throughout the season.
Gonsolin allowed just 14 hits in 78 at bats when he faced teams for the first time during the regular season. Like Snell, things started to unravel the second time around the order. However, if he was able to get through the lineup a second time around, he was dominant in the third time around the order.
I don’t think Gonsolin goes that deep in this game unless he has a perfect game. Every pitcher has a short leash and Gonsolin has a much shorter leash than his opponent in Blake Snell. That’s a given.
Both of these pitchers have been fantastic early in games and then things take a turn. One thing that hasn’t changed this postseason is that the Dodgers have scored four or more runs in every World Series game.
In Snell’s start in Game 2, the Rays held the Dodgers to four runs and won 6-4. The expectation is that Gonsolin is much more comfortable in this start and Snell continues his dominance against the Dodgers lineup that struck out nine times in 4.2 innings of work.
MLB Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
MLB Player Prop: Blake Snell Over 5.5 K’s (-160) with BetOnline
MLB Team Total: Dodgers Over 3.5 Team Total (-155) with BetOnline