2018 Season 'Most' Props: Dodgers' Jansen to Lead in Saves

Wednesday, March 28, 2018 11:37 AM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 28, 2018 11:37 AM UTC

MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop, looks at the "Most Of" props currently available at 5Dimes and finds that the favorites have plenty of wagering value.

The players have, or have not, made it through spring training without injury. Now it is safe to take a look at some of the individual props that are available on the 5Dimes MLB board. Specifically, I’m going to look at the props regarding the “most” of a certain statistic.

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— MLB (@MLB) March 28, 2018

Most Home Runs: Giancarlo Stanton +375

So, this is likely the most boring pick on the board, but not one without reason. In the projection system I lean on the most to make my futures models, the new Yankee Stanton is projected to hit 53 home runs in 2018. These projections are adjusted for regression to average, and Stanton’s number is still 15 home runs higher than the next player, Mike Trout. You’ve got your + -% error bars and then you’d have what would have to happen for Stanton NOT to win the home run crown in 2018. He’d have to significantly underperform -- in his new hitter-friendly home Yankee Stadium that is 30% better for dingers than Miami -– and someone else in the field would have to be an outlier. This is really a wager on if Stanton will stay healthy all season, and that is where the risk lies. He’s only 28, though, so not out of the question that he can repeat his 159-game performance from 2017.

Most RBIs: Nolan Arenado +280

There is a reason that Arenado is at the top of the odds board for most RBIs: consistency. The Rockies superstar led MLB in RBIs in 2015 and 2016 and fell 2 short of Stanton’s monster campaign of 2017. It is hard to pick a hitter in the Yankees or Astros lineup for this, as the RBI chances are more likely to be spread out between the murderers' rows of those clubs. In projected RBI standings from Steamer, Arenado ranks second in the MLB and the next Rockies batter is Charlie Blackmon at 53rd. Compare that to Stanton’s situation in New York as he’s ranked 1st and Aaron Judge is ranked 16th. Those two will bat next to each other in the order, so it is not out of the question for Judge to steal some of Stanton’s opportunities. If there were a category for most solo home runs we’d take Stanton on that in a second. But this category is just as much about lineup construction than anything, where Arenado has a huge advantage over the field. Considerable Mention: Mike Trout +800

Most Saves: Kenley Jansen +300

For this prop I looked for a great team with an older rotation, i.e. one that wouldn’t be at risk for losing save opportunities to complete game attempts. It just turns out that one of those teams has the closer with the best projected K/9 rate and WHIP in the MLB in Jansen of the Dodgers. The Dodgers only have one starting pitcher in their rotation projected to pitch over 140 innings in 2018, and that is Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw only pitched two complete games in 2017, so that risk appears to be minimal. No, the Dodgers bullpen will be leaned upon quite often in 2018, which should give Jansen the maximum amount of quality save chances in a weaker division. Speaking of weaker divisions, Cubs closer Brandon Morrow is a valuable dark horse in the NL Central. Honorable Mention: Morrow +2200

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