2018 Padres: Friars Have Low Bar to Clear in Futures Wagers

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, March 22, 2018 11:49 AM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 22, 2018 11:49 AM UTC

The Padres went well 'over' their win total in 2017, as predicted by our MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop. He check out their roster again for new names and players looking to break out this season.

We will be breaking down each division team-by-team as we approach the 2018 MLB season to identify futures value and upcoming betting trends. Today, we will take a look at the San Diego Padres out of the NL West. The Padres were a top-5 Over call last year, and with just a 66.5-win total to clear they did so with ease by winning 71 games. The bar has gone up somewhat for the 2018 season, with books such as Bovada placing the line to cross at 69.5 games.

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From submarine pitchers to ‘pen action for our #SDOpeningDay starter, here’s a breakdown of #TodayInPeoria.

📝 https://t.co/SLJDpuwpBh pic.twitter.com/YrhkM9unVV

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) March 22, 2018

Pitching Staff

A pitcher to watch in the Padres rotation is Dinelson Lamet. The 25-year-old has been healthy, should be ready for full-time innings and has great stuff. Lamet is projected at 1.9 WAR over just 140 innings this year, and I think he could log more innings than that, which would increase his value by at least a win. Clayton Richard is slated to be the opening day starter for the Padres, and while he logged his first complete season without injury since 2012, he compiled an 8-15 record. Some luck had to play with that, as Richards put up a 3.76 xFIP despite his 19.4% HR/FB rate. Bryan Mitchell came over from the Yankees and will vie for a rotation spot. He’s hoping to get some good effects from pitching in Petco Park as his upper-90s heater still gets hit pretty hard. The closer for the Padres is Brad Hand, who has put up a fantastic K/9 rate of 11+ two seasons in a row and looks to save over 30 games in 2018.


The big signing of the offseason for the Padres was Eric Hosmer, who after finally blossoming for the Kansas City Royals following 10 seasons turned his contract year into an 8-year deal with the Padres worth $144 million. It’s a good fit for the Padres, as Hosmer hit 25 homers in Kauffman Stadium – maybe a better pitchers' park than Petco. Wil Myers will be in the middle of the Padres lineup as well. He’s the rare 5-tool first baseman who can hit 30 home runs and steal more than 20 bases as well; Hosmer's arrival means Myers is headed to the outfield. The next best batter on the Padres roster unfortunately has a career wRC+ of 90, yet Manuel Margot is young and speedy. That speed will put many fly balls to sleep defensively in the spacious outfield at Petco. Chase Headley returns to the Padres after putting up a 104 wRC+ last year with the Yankees, but park factors have his projections coming in much lower this year.

Wild Cards and Betting Trends

San Diego is the worst team in a division that includes the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, their bar has been set so low it might not take much for them to overperform. I’ll be tracking pitchers like Tyson Ross, who was awful for the Rangers in 2017 yet was very successful with the Padres in 2013-2015. He’s returning from thoracic outlet syndrome, and if fully healed will be a very underrated pitcher who could take the Padres over the top – of 69.5 wins.

Current Win Total: 69.5Best Line Offered: Bovada
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