2018 Marlins: Who's Left on Roster After Winter Fire Sale?

Mark Lathrop

Thursday, February 22, 2018 9:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Feb. 22, 2018 9:21 PM UTC

MLB handicapper Mark Lathrop looks at the remains of the Miami Marlins roster to see if there is any remaining value from a wagering perspective in 2018.

MLB: Miami Marlins Preview

We will be breaking down each division team by team as we approach the 2018 MLB season to identify futures value and upcoming betting trends. Today we will look at the Miami Marlins out of the NL East. The Marlins squeaked "over" their 76.5-win total in the futures markets in 2017 with a 77-win campaign. After the Marlins' fire sale over the winter, the market has adjusted downwards in 2018 with a win total line set at 64.5 at Bovada.

Pitching Staff

The Marlins actually have some decent bullpen pieces left from their fire sale with Brad Ziegler, Kyle Barraclough, and Drew Steckenrider in the mix. The problem will be getting to them with the lead after analyzing their starting pitching. Dan Straily looks to be the No. 1 starter, but he rarely pitches past the sixth inning. Dillon Peters, with all of his 31.1 IP in the majors, appears to be the second-best pitcher in the rotation. He has an issue with walks (5.46 BB/9) and dingers (15.8-percent HR/FB rate). Adam Conley will also be in the rotation, yet did not improve on his 1.5-WAR 2016 campaign in 2017.


Miami's lineup has one interesting piece left right now in catcher J.T. Realmuto. But anything I write here is bound to be garbage come April, as the Houston Astros have already come knocking on the door for him. He’d be a great fit for the Astros after putting up 3.6 WAR in 2017 with good offensive and defensive metrics. Really, any team would be better with Realmuto, 26, who is just hitting his prime. He is signed only through this year, though, so I can understand why the Marlins would be willing to flip him for some uber-prospects. The Marlins aren’t concerned with this season. The other bat that could be of consequence, at least from a fantasy perspective, is first baseman Justin Bour. He will get full-time at-bats for the first time since AA ball in 2012 and will look to improve on his 25-homer 2017 season in only 108 games.

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The makings of a five-tool player and a middle-of-the-order threat. 💪

Meet outfield prospect Monte Harrison, who's being referred to “one of Miami's most talented, young players”: https://t.co/eLMmSv5Zuz pic.twitter.com/9LUb3g6itt

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) February 21, 2018

Wild Cards and Betting Trends

The unknown for the Marlins roster is who will still be on it when spring training ends. The win total on the MLB odds board is set at the basement, but the variability due to impending trades has me reluctant to make a call on the futures market. One idea I will float out there for your MLB picks is that Straily should be good enough to be a .500 pitcher. Considering that the Marlins will likely be moneyline underdogs in almost any game they play this year, those plus odds paying out 50 percent of the time could be a valuable addition to your portfolio.

Current 2018 Win Total: 64.5Best Line Offered: Bovada
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