2016 T Mobile Home Run Derby MLB Picks

Mark Trumbo MLB Odds

Joe Catalano

Monday, July 11, 2016 2:23 PM GMT

Monday, Jul. 11, 2016 2:23 PM GMT

My favorite event in the MLB All-Star festivities takes place tonight and that's the T-Mobilie Home Run Derby. What make the Derby unique is that not always the guy with the longest home runs or the best round wins.

It's a matter of timing and consistency. Let's take a look at the master blasters and the rules for this year.

Home Run Derby Rules
Being that they're different than before, I feel that it's mandatory to read them off the MLB.com site, therefore the bettor understands what this event is all about. The T-Mobile Home Rund Derby will take place in San Diego at 8 p.m. EST on ESPN and will be broken down into seedings according to who's hit the most home runs this season thus far. The winner from the 1-8 matchup will face the 4-5 matchup and the winner from the 3-6 matchup will face the 2-7 matchup. Let's Look at their MLB odds:
1, Mark Trumbo - 28 home runs ( +375)   vs. 8. Corey Seager - 17 home runs (+900)
2. Adam Duvall - 23 Home runs   vs.  7. Will Myers - 19 Home runs (+650)
3. Todd Frazier - 25 Home runs (+500)   vs.  6. Carlos Gonzalez -19 Home runs (+800)
4. Robinson Cano - 21 Home runs (+900)   vs,   5. Giancarlo Stanton - 20 Home runs (+300)

 

Not Hitting Themselves Out
1. This is a rule that I like. In the past, even when a player would win a matchup, he would put on a show for the fans and keep hitting. This season, once a player has immediately won a matchup. They stop swinging and can conserve their energy for the next round.
2. There are 4 minutes per batter per round. In the first round and semifinals, the batter is entitled to a time out and in the finals, the batter gets two time outs.
3. 30 Seconds of bonus time will be added for two home runs that equal or exceed 440 ft. Of course, we have never seen a rule such as this and this rule will definitely benefit the big hitters such as Ginacarlo Stanton and Mark Trumbo.
4. Ties will end in a 60- second swing off

 

My Assessment
Todd Frazier
 is the defending champion and either a player is here to put on a show or really follow the rules and take home the trophy. A player like Robinson Cano, who has won in the past will have a tough time here as his father pitches him the baseballs with precision. He takes his time and this is an event that you can't take your time.

Players in the past here, have gotten into a groove; on a streak, so to speak, like a Yoenis Cespedes and with his combination of power and his swing, have won the event. I've also seen big crushers like Josh Hamilton and Mark McGwire hit a ton of home runs and the farthest shots and not win. One player that I do remember, with not a ton of power was Bobby Abreu and he hit 24 home runs in a single round. It's all about technique and eye to ball memorization.

Giancarlo Stanton, the betting favorite in this contest.
He has a very violent swing and that can hurt him. He also has had a tough year this season despite still hitting 20 home runs. The fans will appreciate him the most as he's 2nd on the list of farthest shots this season to Carlos Gonzalez. Stanton is a legitimate favorite, but will he continue to struggle like he has all season long. If not, I can see him and Mark Trumbo, the two betting favorites, fighting it out where the title is concerned.

Todd Frazier
This is a player who won last season, but let's also remember that the scenario was perfect. He was at his home ball park. This season, he plays for a different team and isn't even hitting .200. I woudn't rule him out as a nice price at most sportsbooks, but I don't expect him to win.

Carlos Gonzalez
All I have to say is Coors Field and he's eliminated from the list of contenders. Coors Fields bloats numbers.

Will Myers
He's a wild-card. I don't thnk that he has the ability to go swing for swing with a Mark Trumbo, Giancarlo Stanton, or Todd Frazier, but he'll be hitting in his home town ball park with fan support and he doesn't try to kill the baseball, therefore conserving his energy. I put him in the Cano category, but with these new rules, I think that it favors the sluggers.

Corey Seager
At 22 years old and a rookie, you can wipe him off your list of contenders as he's happy to be here.

Mark Trumbo
This is a player to look out for. He has 9 home runs of over 425 ft. ,which leads the majors and has had a successful season, unlike Stanton. Trumbo doesn't have the power that Stanton has, but in this format, a player needs power, but doesn't have to hit the baseball 500 ft .to accrue extra time. He's the number 1 seed for a reason. He's had a spectacular season and has the power to accrue extra time in this new format. As in games, when Trumbo gets on a roll, there's no stopping him. If you're looking for a good price, Todd Frazier, the defending champion is a great MLB pick at +500, but he's had a really poor season. I think the contest comes down to these two players with Trumbo winning as he's been steady all season long.

Free ATP Pick:  Mark Trumbo +300
Best Line Offered:  at Pinnacle

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