We are past the one-third pole of the season and sportsbooks have locked onto who they think could be World Series champions. The question is are they correct or is their better value against the MLB odds?
We think so and will tell where to place your money and avoid following the wrong teams.
Frontrunners not Playing like Champions
The Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Dodgers continue to be the odds favorites to win the World Series, but you sure would not suspect that would be the case with how they are playing.
The Tigers more resemble the Cubs than being the top betting odds choice at +575. Detroit has lost 12 of 16. While its starting pitchers still rank second in the American League, their ERA has gone up a 0.5 runs and their bullpen has been getting clocked and become the worst in the league by ERA. Particularly disturbing is closer Joe Nathan with his 6.86 ERA, which includes four blown saves.
At least the Tigers are still in first place, which Los Angeles has never been this season in the division. The Dodgers just lost another home series to fall to 13-19 Chavez Ravine for an atrocious -14.9 units and do not resemble anything close to a team that is a +750 pick to win the hardware.
The only value in these teams is passing.
More Value on Next Tier Down
If you are looking to get the most bang for your buck with your MLB picks, look in the Bay Area. San Francisco and Oakland appear to be on a collision course to meet in the Fall Classic, having the two best records in the game and being in the Top 5 in profits.
The A’s are the third choice at +950 and they are the top scoring team in baseball at 5.2 runs per game and concede the fewest runs at 3.1. This is a deep versatile team and the only reason question looking to October baseball is do they have enough starting pitching to win two series?
San Francisco has the finest record and while not as intimidating by numbers as the club on the other side of the Bay Bridge, using the Giants nightly would have been a smart choice with sports picks, as they are +17.5, the best in the game. This is a veteran team with two rings in the past four-plus seasons who understands how to win and is +1000 to win it all.
In between these northern California clubs is St. Louis at +975 and frankly, MLB handicappers have seen very little to get excited about with a dull offense averaging 3.8 runs a game.
In early June, San Francisco and Oakland are your two bet future’s wagers.
The Rest of the Pack
Next up is Washington (+1350) and Atlanta (+1350) and while both appear to have quality up and down the pitching staffs, presently, neither has shown a sustainable offense in the regular season, let alone the pressure of the postseason.
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels are next in line at +1650 and both have been exposed against higher caliber clubs to this point of the season. Can they improve, yes, but they need to exhibit evidence they deserve money being placed on them.
The final two squads are Toronto and Milwaukee. The Blue Jays (+1850) have been sensational in posting a 16-3 record since May 15. Toronto has a terrific offense, which leads the Majors in home runs. What you wonder going forward is what Jays starting pitchers will pick up the slack for Mark Buehrle since they are 11-1 when he starts and it wound seem impossible to maintain that win percentage for the season.
Milwaukee might also be worth a peak at +2000, but a word of caution, the Brewers are 15-17 since May 1.