'Under' 6 1/2 Runs Best Bet on Nationals vs. Mariners' MLB Odds

Darin Zank

Saturday, August 30, 2014 2:59 PM GMT

NL East-leading Washington is out West this weekend, playing in the other Washington against the Mariners. The Nats beat King Felix in the opener of this series Friday night; here's our take on Saturday's Game 2 (9:10 pm ET), with a free MLB pick.

Saturday's Betting Odds
As of early Saturday morning the best MLB odds we could find on Washington with Stephen Strasburg was the -130 offered at Pinnacle, while Seattle and Roenis Elias could be found getting +127 at BetOnline.

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Game Set-Up
Washington just got swept three games in Philly earlier this week, but opened this series with a 8-3 victory Friday night, hitting six homers, four off of Seattle starter Felix Hernandez.

At 76-57 the Nats lead the NL East by six games over second-place Atlanta, and they're also a game ahead of the Dodgers in the battle for the best record in the National League.

Seattle, meanwhile, dropped two of three games at home to last-place Texas earlier this week, then lost the opener of this series Friday night. That, combined with Detroit's win over the White Sox Friday, dropped the Mariners a game behind the Tigers in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

 

Saturday's Starters
Elias (9-11, 4.01) is just 5/25 on quality starts year, and 0 for his last nine, in part because he can't go six innings. Last time out he gave up one run through five innings against Texas, but walked four. And over his last six outings he's given up seven runs through 30 2/3 innings. But that's an average of just five innings per start.

For the season Elias has allowed 127 hits through 144 innings, walked 58 and struck out 132. Seattle is 11-14 in games Elias has started, with the totals tilting toward the 'unders' 15-9.

This will be Elias' first-ever start against the Nationals.

Stephen Strasburg (10-10, 3.59) is 17/28 on quality starts, and two for his last three. Last time out he gave up five runs and eight hits in four innings against the Giants, but in his two starts previous to that he held the Mets and Arizona to one ER and six hits through 15 innings.

For the season Strasburg has allowed 171 hits, including 21 homers, through 175 innings, but posted a wonderful K/BB ratio of 202/40. Washington is 15-13 in Strasburg's starts, with the totals skewing toward the 'overs' 17-9 mostly because of some good run support.

This will be Strasburg's first-ever start against Seattle.

This game also involves two of the best bullpens in baseball. The Mariners rank No. 1 in bullpen ERA at 2.43, with 41 saves in 51 chances, while Washington ranks sixth in ERA at 2.95, with 32 saves in 45 chances.

 

Betting Trends
The totals have skewed toward the 'unders' in Mariners home games this season by a 41-24 margin.

 

Free Pick for Saturday
We're not sure who's going to win this game, but we believe it will be low-scoring. So we'll go with the 'under' 6.5 runs for our free MLB pick on Saturday's contest.

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