These Numbers Don't Lie! Cardinals Will Win by At Least 2 Runs vs. Marlins

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, June 23, 2015 1:49 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 23, 2015 1:49 PM UTC

This is one of my Road Warrior Run line plays which is backed by a 9-day situation that has gone 49-6 (89%) with subsets of 17-2 (89%) and 14-3 (82%).  You can feel confident with this MLB pick the entire way.

St. Louis Cardinals (C. Martinez) vs. Miami Marlins (Urena) 7:10 ET FOX1
St. Louis Cardinals visit Miami for the 1st of a 3-game early week set at Marlins Park. The Cards come off a 9-2 loss vs. Philly on Sunday, setting them up for a strong bounce back spot. This selection is also backed by a short-term (9 days) run line situation that is 49-6 (89%), as well as team subsets that are 17-2 (89%) and 14-3 (82%). Along with a favorable pitching matchup, this one is an absolute must for your betting pleasure on Tuesday evening.

27 of 30 (90%) of MLB teams are playing between .400 and .600 baseball. At 45-24 (.652), St. Louis is the only greater than .600 team.  Philly and Milwaukee are the sub .400 teams.  But, few know that the Miami Marlins, at 30-41 with a 42.3 winning percentage, have the 3rd worst record in MLB.  While the Marlins await the return of some injured starters, replacements such as Urena have stepped into the void.  Urena is slowly improving with each outing.  In his last trip to the mound, Urena worked 6 IP, allowing just 2 runs in a 2-1 loss to NYY.  In addition to the acceptable work by Urena, Miami has also pulled to 17-17 at home, as they have won 9 of their previous 11 home games.  But, the Marlins have been a streaky team with YTD runs of 3-11, 12-3, 5-15, 9-5 and currently 1-4, as they return home from last week’s road trip. There are not enough positives to back them in this spot against the best and most resilient team in baseball, who are sending a red hot starter to the mound.

St. Louis continues to succeed against all MLB odds. Numerous players remain on the injured list and the Cards must now deal with off-field distractions of hacking allegations.  Through it all, the Cards persist.  St. Louis enters tonight on an 18-8 run with the knowledge that in the last 2+ years, they are 110-61 following a defeat (to lowly Philly, 9-2 on Sunday).  They will be eager to send C. Martinez to the mound.  The Cards have won 10 of his 13 starts, including 10 of 11 Martinez starts against National League foes.  The work of Martinez is even better of late.  In his most recent 5 starts, Martinez is 4-0 with a 0.80 ERA.  But, the real value in this line occurs with our advantage on the run line.  

Normally, road team victories are by 2 or more runs, around 74% of the time. But in the previous 9 days, 49 of 55 road wins in all of MLB (89%) have come by 2 or more runs.  I would be remiss if I did not note the St. Louis road dominance which has seen 17 of 19 (89%) St. Louis road wins come by 2 or more runs.  To round out the equation, please note that 14 of 17 Miami home losses (82%) have come by 2 or more runs. Transform your St. Louis MLB pick into a run line underdog for a healthy profit.

MLB Pick: Take St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+125) at 5Dimes

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