Plate Approach Favors Brewers With Struggling Pitchers In Cinncy

Drew Martin

Thursday, May 5, 2016 6:48 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 5, 2016 6:48 PM UTC

Patient offensive plate approach creates betting value on the visiting Milwaukee Brewers who find themselves winners of 3 of their last 4. We breakdown this National League game inside. 

Brewers vs. Reds
The Milwaukee Brewers take the short trip over to the Queen City to take on the host Cincinnati Reds in this under the radar National League Central showdown. Tonight’s matchup pins two struggling pitchers against each other in the opener of a four game set in the hitter-friendly confines of Great American Ballpark. A few key metrics having to do with the offensive plate approach from these two teams project one of these righties to really struggle when it comes to keeping runners off the base paths.

Alfredo Simon, a veteran who recently has struggled finding the strike zone, will take the hill for the last place Reds tonight. The 34 year-old Dominican is coming off back to back four inning, four walk performances. To make matters worse, he has been torched to the tune of a 13 plus ERA. One finding that remains constant in his 2016 numbers is that he tends to lose it when facing lineups that work the count. Simon has faced the Pirates, Cardinals and Cubs. All three of the NL Central rivals are patient at the plate. The Cubs, Pirates, and Cardinals are all in the top 8 in MLB when it comes to walks per game.  Unfortunately for Simon, his opponent sports a similar profile. The Brewers’ offensive plate approach is very patient; in fact, the Brew Crew is forth in all of baseball in walks per game, drawing just under four per contest. Making the Brewers lineup the exact profile that Simon has shown the type to get him flustered, ultimately sending him to the showers early in his previous starts.

On the other side, the Milwaukee Brewers’ starter Chase Anderson has lacked consistency so far this year. The former Oklahoma Sooner has posted solid starts yielding no earned runs, but has also posted multiple 8 plus hit games, and is coming off back to back four walk performances himself.

Considering the above, the glaring difference is why the Milwaukee Brewers side has value in their offensive plate approach: the Milwaukee Brewers work the count and draw free passes, while the Cincinnati Reds do not. Cincinnati comes into tonight’s game ranking second to last in walks per game, earning fewer than 2.5 per contest.

The visiting Brewers’ lineup has caught fire of late, averaging 30 runs over the last four games, and sports a team OPS of over .800 in the last week, which ranks this Brewers offensive attack 6th in all of MLB. Considering the recent Brewers offensive explosion and their uniquely patient offensive plate approach, metrics project that tonight’s opposing pitcher Alfredo Simon may be pitching his last game before a demotion. Suddenly the Brewers, winners of 3 of their last 4, find themselves among the leaders in offensive production in multiple offensive categories in the National League over the past week and are showing signs of being a bet on team. I recommend a MLB pick on this quietly surging Milwaukee Brewers team as the even money road warrior in tonight’s series opener.

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MLB Pick: Brewers -103
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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