Phillies vs. Giants: Gutsy Bet or Sportsbook Trap?

Ross Benjamin

Friday, July 10, 2015 12:59 PM GMT

Here's our betting preview for Friday’s game between the Phillies and Giants. Join us in reading this betting preview article which displays a very unique perspective and approach.

Phillies in the Bay Area to take on Giants
The Phillies and Giants are set to begin a three game series in San Francisco today at 10:15 PM ET. These teams met earlier this season in Philadelphia, San Francisco won two of the three encounters, all and three games went over the total.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Phillies veteran ace Cole Hamels will be on the mound for this series opener on Friday. The southpaw has been in very good form during his last four starts with a 2.42 ERA, and compiled just short of a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those outings. In three starts versus San Francisco since 2013, Hamels posted a superb 1.96 ERA. The Phillies have gone an abysmal 11-34 on the road this season, and four of those eleven wins came with Hamels as their starting pitcher.

Madison Bumgarner has been victimized by poor run support during his previous five starts. During that time, the Giants went 1-4, averaged only 2.2 runs per game, and Bumgarner still managed to post a stellar 3.25 ERA. The Giants southpaw is a dismal 1-7 in his home team starts since 2014 when facing an opponent with a team batting average of .250 or less, and Philadelphia enters today at .245. Bumgarner has made one start versus Philadelphia in 2015 and was far from impressive, allowing 5 earned runs in 8.0 innings.

 

Phillies Report
The Phillies have struggled mightily this season which is evidenced by their National League worst 29-59 (.330) record. However, this three game stretch has been especially tough. The last two nights they faced Clayton Kershaw in addition to Zack Greinke of the Dodgers, and were shutout on both occasions. Tonight they face the 2014 World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner. There is a shining light at the end of the tunnel. It’s not as if Bumgarner has been dominating this season, and prior to their last two games against the Dodgers dynamic pitching duo, Philadelphia had averaged 11.3 hits per game in their previous seven.

 

Reeling Defending Champs
The Giants head into today having lost eight of their last nine games. They’ve averaged just 5.67 hits per game in their last six, 1.5 runs per game in the previous six, and scored 3 runs or less in each of those six games.

 

MLB Money Line Betting System
Philadelphia has a team on base percentage of .292 this year. They’re also coming off 5-0 and 6-0 losses to the Dodgers in their last two games. Combining that data with them (Phillies) being a money line road underdog tonight, qualifies for a very profitable betting angle. I’m going to take a calculated risk on the road underdog tonight with a wager at 5Dimes for one of my MLB picks on Friday.

Any National League money line underdog of +100 or more (Philadelphia), possessing a team on base percentage of .300 or less, and is coming off two losses in a row by 4 or more runs, resulted in the road underdog going 72-53 (57.6%) since 1997. The average money line for those road teams was +136.7. Hypothetically, if you risked $100 on the road underdog in all 125 games that qualified under this betting angle since 1997, it would’ve produced a profit of $4530.

MLB Pick: Philadelphia +145 on the money line at 5Dimes..