'Over' a Lock MLB Pick for Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Tonight?

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 2:17 PM GMT

Tuesday, May. 5, 2015 2:17 PM GMT

Last night's game between these two teams got rained out, and more bad weather is approaching. Nevertheless, we plan on breaking down the MLB odds for Colorado/Arizona.

Odds Overview
The MLB Odds board shows Colorado favored in the -140 to -145 range, with Arizona listed at just over +130. If you want to take a chance on the Rockies, perhaps to win by two or more runs, the run-line is currently quoted at +140.

Yes, this game will take place at Coors Field, so we can expect a lot of runs to be scored, assuming the game isn't canceled again. Right now the O/U is at 10.5 runs.

 

Colorado Rockies (Matzek)
Times are rough for the Rockies right now, as they've lost five consecutive games to fall two games under .500 for the season (11-13). They were hoping to get back on track last night in a series opener at home against the Diamondbacks, but mother nature wasn't on their side and the game was postponed.

That means Tyler Matzek will have his start pushed back another day. The left-hander has been pretty solid to start the year, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA, and he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all four of his assignments so far. Matzek has already faced Arizona once this season, holding them to five hits and two earned runs over five innings in a 5-4 road win. He struck out three and walked three.

So far so good for the southpaw, who looks to have improved after a shaky rookie season saw him go 6-11 with a 4.05 ERA. Matzek, however, did post very respectable numbers at Coors Field in 2014 (3.61 ERA) and has only surrendered three earned runs through his first two home outings this season. Can he keep it going against the Diamondbacks in a rematch from last week?

 

Arizona Diamondbacks (Collmenter)
Like the Rockies, the Diamondbacks have not been playing their best baseball. They just got swept by the Dodgers in Los Angeles, which has their record at 10-14 on the year, and they enter tonight's game having won just two of their past nine games overall.

Will Josh Collmenter be able to guide Arizona to a positive start in this series at Coors? The righty has been solid as a rock for the Diamondbacks, recording a 2.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first five starts. He opened the year with a couple shaky showings, but has turned up the style recently, allowing just three total earned runs over his last 23 innings of work. That includes a gem against Colorado last week in which he held the Rockies to five hits and one run (zero earned) in a big 9-1 win at home.

Pitching at Coors Field is an entirely different story altogether, however, so Collmenter will really need to be locked in to keep those potent Colorado bats quiet once more. The 29-year-old has pitched just once on the road this season but was tremendous, pitching a complete game shutout in San Francisco.

 

MLB Pick
We don't trust either one of these pitchers all that much, despite what the early-season numbers show.

Both Matzek and Collmenter may have ERAs under 3.00, but we reckon that's going to change tonight. Matzek has been lucky to escape some major damage (1.55 WHIP), and we think it may come crashing down for him against the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and company. The Diamondbacks aren't the most fearsome offense, but they do have some powerful bats.

As for the Rockies, we know what they're capable of doing at Coors. Collmenter is pitching above his head too and there should be regression coming. Put it all together and we believe MLB Picks on the OVER have a great chance at hitting, regardless of this being a large number.

MLB Pick: OVER 9.5 at Bet365 (+105)

comment here