No Fireworks on these July 4th Games: Saturday's Top MLB Totals to Go 'Under'

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, July 4, 2015 4:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Jul. 4, 2015 4:44 PM UTC

Despite going 1-3 on Friday, our MLB consultant is 23-13 over the last ten days. He’s sharing 2 totals selections along with his detailed analysis for games between Twins/Royals & Angels/Rangers.

Twins (Pelfrey) vs. Royals (Blanton)
Neither of these teams possesses any power to speak of. Minnesota has hit only 62 home runs in 80 games, and the Royals are even worse in that regard with 57 in 77 outings. The Twins have scored just a combined 5 runs in their previous three games. The Royals have struggled as well recently in terms of offensive production. Kansas City has scored a total of 9 runs during their last five games, and 5 of those came in a loss at Houston. The Royals are 22-7 under the total this season when facing an opponent with a winning record like they’ll encounter today.

Mike Pelfrey’s pitching performance line has been less than impressive in recent starts. However, he was very good in his only start versus Kansas City this season, allowing 0 earned runs on 5 hits while walking 3 in 7.0 innings, and that came during a 3-0 Twins win.

The Royals Joe Blanton is coming off a shaky start in his last outing at Houston. However, his whole body of work this season has been solid despite a small sample size. Blanton has posted a very good 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings pitched. Those innings were amassed as both a starter and reliever.

This total opened at 8.5 and has since came down to 8.0 across the board. We’ve seen a reverse movement pertaining to the total considering the majority of general public wagering has been on going over the number. I’m going to oppose the general public in this spot, and Pinnacle has the best price to do so.

MLB Pick: Play on the Twins and Royals under 8.0 (-107) at Pinnacle


Angels (Santiago) vs. Rangers (W.Rodriguez) 
Hector Santiago has displayed good form over his last three starts with a stellar 2.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and compiled an almost 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio. All three of those games stayed under the total. In two starts versus the Rangers this season, Santaigo has a sparkling 1.46 ERA. The Angels southpaw has also posted an excellent 1.45 ERA in seven starts versus AL West opponents this year. The Angels went over the total for the first time in eight games on Friday during a 8-2 win at Texas. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 10-2 under the total in the last 12, and 13-3 under during their previous sixteen games.

Wandy Rodriguez has really struggled in recent starts. In his last five, the veteran southpaw hurler has posted a lofty 4.50 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. However, in one start versus the Angels in 2015, Rodriguez allowed only 1 earned run on 5 hits while walking three during 5.0 innings of work. Rodriguez has also gone 8-0 under the total this season when facing an opponent with a team on base percentage of .320 or less. The Angels enter today with an OBP of .302.

The Angels have gone 14-4-1 under the total this year when facing a southpaw starting pitcher, and they possess a paltry .227 team batting average during those games. The Rangers have gone 18-8-2 under the total in their previous 28 games. I feel the total of 9.0 is a tad high with all things being considered, and one of my MLB picks today will be indicative of that sentiment. After shopping for the best value, 5Dimes provides me with the best number and price for this wager.

MLB Pick: Play on Rangers/Angels under 9.0 (-115) at 5Dimes

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