Add 'Under' to Your MLB Picks as Rockies-Brewers Series Finale is Expected to be a Low-Scoring Game

Darin Zank

Wednesday, April 8, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 8, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

Colorado shoots for the sweep Wednesday night at Miller Park, but Milwaukee has its horse going, and will try to ride Wily Peralta to its first victory of the season.

Rockies-Brewers Betting Odds
Most of the MLB betting market opened this game with Milwaukee and Wily Peralta favored by around -150 over Colorado and rookie righty Eddie Butler. Many shops then dropped the Brewers to around -140. Also, the total on this game started at 8.5, then dropped to eight in the early betting.


Rockies-Brewers: Game 3
Colorado has taken the first two games of this series, after Tuesday's 5-2 victory. The Rockies grabbed a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning, and that was enough for starter Jordan Lyles and three relievers, who held Milwaukee to six hits. Colorado, meanwhile, rapped out 12 hits, including six doubles.

The Rockies cashed in as +115 underdogs in the MLB odds Tuesday, and the game stayed UNDER its total of eight runs.

Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, who both missed a lot of time last season with injuries, have scored seven runs combined through the first two games of this season.

Milwaukee starter Matt Garza gave up four runs in five innings Tuesday, so that's two straight non-quality starts for the Brewers rotation.

Tuesday's game stayed UNDER its total of eight runs, as neither team scored after the Rockies put one on the board in the top of the sixth. Milwaukee had a chance to push that total, with a runner on second and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, but Colorado closer LaTroy Hawkins, the oldest player in the league, got Gerardo Parra to fly out to end the game.

Milwaukee took the season series from Colorado last year six games to one; the Rockies seem to be grabbing some revenge this week, outscoring the Brewers so far 15-2.


Starting Pitching Matchup – Butler vs. Peralta 
Peralta was a horse for the Brewers last year, going 17-11 with a 3.53 ERA. He went 20-for-32 on quality starts, gave up 198 hits in 199 innings, walked 61 and struck out 154. That walks total was down by a dozen from 2013, while the strikeouts total was up 25, while making the exact same number of starts.

Milwaukee went 19-13 in Peralta's starts last year, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by an 18-14 margin.

Peralta started twice against Colorado last year, allowing seven ER and 16 hits through 13 2/3 innings. The Brewers won both those games, and both games played OVER the totals.

Butler, a first-rounder from the 2012 draft, made three starts in the Majors last year, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He started twice against the Dodgers, giving up 11 runs in 10 innings, sandwiched around a quality outing against Arizona. Butler “earned” a shot at a spot in the rotation by going 6-9/3.58 at AA Tulsa last summer.

The Rockies went 2-1 in Butler's starts last year, with the totals going 1-2.


Injury Update
Milwaukee OF Ryan Braun missed Tuesday's game after banging into a wall Monday, and his status for Wednesday night is uncertain.

Meanwhile, Colorado 1B Justin Morneau took a throw to the neck last night, and is also questionable for tonight.


Rockies-Brewers Pick
Peralta gets the edge in the pitching matchup, but the Milwaukee bats have looked dead so far. Also, they haven't yet seen Butler, which should be an advantage for the young pitcher, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup. We just don't see any value on either side of tonight's line. So instead, in expectation of a low scoring affair, we'll go with the UNDER for our MLB picks for tonight.

MLB Free Picks: UNDER 8.5 runs at BetOnline

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