Zozo Championship Odds, Picks, PGA Tour Predictions: Can Matsuyama Defend Title in Japan?

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan hosts a 78-man PGA Tour field for this week's Zozo Championship. Here's a look at the top odds and picks for the 2022 Zozo Championship as Hideki Matsuyama aims to defend his 2021 title.

Matsuyama returns to Japan as the winner of the 2021 Zozo Championship. The Japanese star is among the favorites in the condensed field; however, American Xander Schauffele is atop the odds board at all of our top-rated sportsbooks. There's no cut in this event, meaning all 78 players will play four rounds, barring withdrawal.

Entering the week sixth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), Schauffele is the top-ranked player in the field. He's joined by Collin Morikawa (No. 9), Viktor Hovland (No. 11), Tom Kim (No. 15), Cameron Young (No. 16), Matsuyama (No. 19), and Sungjae Im (No. 20) from the top 20.

Check out our Zozo Championship Fantasy Golf Power Rankings.

Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2022 Zozo Championship based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.  

Zozo Championship Odds

Zozo Championship Odds Analysis

Schauffele is the consensus favorite with an implied win probability ranging from 10.53% at FanDuel Sportsbook to 11.11% at PointsBet and DraftKings Sportsbook. Eight of the 78 golfers in the field have an implied win probability of at least 4.76% at DraftKings.

There's been a fair bit of movement in the odds since Monday's opening lines. The likes of Im, Morikawa, Matsuyama, and Young have seen their odds drop considerably, while there is now better value on Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton, and Corey Conners at most sportsbooks.

Zozo Championship Picks

Accordia Golf Narashino Course Profile

Par: 70
Length: 7,079 yards
Greens: Bentgrass

Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club was lengthened by roughly 40 yards since last year's tournament. The course features tight tree-lined fairways and water is in play on four holes. Sand bunkers guard most greens. Just three players finished better than 6-under par last year.

It's important to note that this venue hosted the 2019 and 2021 editions of the Zozo Championship, while the 2020 tournament was played in the United States.

Seven holes played below par last year, with the easiest being the 562-yard, par-5 18th. Only two of the three par 5s played below par last year, but so did three of the five par 3s. The most difficult hole by scoring average in 2021 was the 505-yard, par-4 fourth at a stroke average of 4.345.

The par 4s vary considerably in length from 363 to 505 yards. The most common range is 450-500 yards, with five such holes. All of the par 3s are shorter than 200 yards.

Zozo Championship Key Stats

Strokes gained: off-the-tee
SG: around-the-green
Bogey avoidance
Par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards
Par-3 efficiency: 150-175 yards
Proximity: 175-200 yards

Accordia Golf Narashino CC features long par 4s and par 5s so we'll need to focus on strokes gained: off-the-tee. The contoured greens also present a significant challenge that makes SG: around-the-green another vital stat to consider this week.

Scoring is rather difficult at this venue. As such, we'll focus on our key distances for the par 3s and par 4s as well as bogey avoidance.

Matsuyama leads this week's field with an average of 4.13 true total strokes gained on the field per round across his eight career rounds at Accordia Golf Narashino. He was the runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2019 and won last year.

Who Will Win the Zozo Championship?

Hovland (+2200)

Hovland returns to PGA Tour play this week after two events on the DP World Tour. He tied for fifth at the BMW PGA Championship before a more lackluster T-34 showing at the DS Automobiles Italian Open. He heads to Japan ranked 11th in the world.

Despite being the third-ranked golfer in this field, Hovland has just the seventh-best odds to win the tournament at most of our top sportsbooks. However, DraftKings and Caesars both have odds of just +1800 for him with an extra $4 of value available at PointsBet.

Hovland tied for 41st in this event in 2019 but didn't play last year. While his often problematic short game wouldn't figure to have him under consideration at a course where we're valuing SG: around-the-green, Hovland has actually averaged 0.20 strokes gained per round around the greens across his last 12 measured rounds. He was also third on the PGA Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards and 26th in SG: off-the-tee last season.

Kim (+3500)

Kim tied for eighth at last week's Shriners Children's Open.  That followed a T-5 finish at the Asian Tour's Shinhan Donghae Open.

Kim played this event both years it was held in Japan, finishing T-37 in 2019 and T-18 last year. He has struggled on the greens of late but has averaged 0.22 SG: off-the-tee and 0.03 SG: around-the-green across his last eight measured rounds. He also gained strokes with his putter last week as he returns to familiar putting surfaces.

Like with Hovland, we're taking advantage of an outlier number on Kim. He's +3000 at PointsBet and +3100 at FanDuel, so the +3500 via DraftKings offers strong value.

Steele (+8000)

Steele often plays his best golf on the fall swing. His last two PGA Tour victories came at the Safeway Open in October of 2016 and 2017, and he lost in a playoff to Cameron Smith at the Sony Open in January 2020.

Steele made his debut in this event last fall and tied for second with 2.86 true total strokes gained on the field per round. He missed the cut in each of his first two events of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, but poor putting shoulders the bulk of that blame. He's still gaining 0.39 strokes per round off the tee across his last 12 rounds. Steele also tied for 23rd on Tour in proximity: 175-200 yards and was 53rd in bogey avoidance last season.

You're getting great value here at BetMGM. FanDuel has Steele priced at a market-low of +6500.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

Zozo Championship picks made on 10/10/2022 at 1:30 p.m. ET.