Sony Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Tom Kim Meet High Expectations in Second Hawaii Event

The PGA Tour remains in Hawaii this week for the second of two events, this one featuring the first full field of 2023. Waialae Country Club in Honolulu hosts the Sony Open in Hawaii, where Tom Kim will look to hold off a strong field as the consensus favorite. Check out below for our top Sony Open golf picks based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Tom Kim is the consensus betting favorite for the first time in his young and brilliant PGA Tour career. The 20-year-old South Korean is fresh off of a T-5 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui. Kim proved he can compete with strong fields after picking up his first two wins against softer competition in August and October.

Though not everyone from last week's elite field stuck around in the 50th state for this event (at least not to play), Sungjae Im, Jordan Spieth, and defending Sony Open champ Hideki Matsuyama are among the top contenders looking to hold off Kim.

Read on for our top picks for the 2023 Sony Open (odds via our best sportsbooks).

Check out our Sony Open Power Rankings, along with our look at the WM Phoenix Open odds, The Players Champions odds, and the Masters odds.

Sony Open Odds

Sony Open Odds Analysis

The odds on the tournament favorite dropped across the board over the course of Monday and Monday night. Kim is now listed at +1100 for an implied win probability of 8.33%. He's logged two victories over 16 PGA Tour events (including majors) for a win rate of 12.5%, so that probability may not be farfetched. However, that winning is likely unsustainable.

DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet give the most separation between Kim and Im as the next-closest contender. The first real disagreement among our top sportsbooks lies in the odds for Matsuyama as the defending champion, and two-time PGA Tour winner Brian Harman. FanDuel Sportsbook looks most favorably upon Matsuyama, while BetMGM offers a slight discount.

Looking to the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) for potential value plays, Billy Horschel enters the week as the third-highest ranked golfer in the field. But his odds are as high as +3500 via PointsBet, with eight golfers getting lower odds at that book.

Sony Open Picks

Waialae Country Club Course Profile

Par: 70
Length: 7,044 yards
Greens: Bermuda

Though the PGA Tour remains in Hawaii this week, the expanded field will be playing a much different course than the one used for the Sentry TOC. Tight tree-lined fairways and thick rough guard Waialae CC, while bunkers litter the grounds and protect most greens. Water is in play on just three holes.

Scoring was below par on average at 12 holes during the 2022 Sony Open, with 41 golfers finishing at minus-10 or better for the tournament. Three of the past four winners finished at 21-under par or better.

The par 3s range from 176 to 204 yards, with all but one shorter than 200 yards. Two par 4s are shorter than 400 yards, with five ranging between 400 and 450 yards, and another five between 450 and 500 yards. The two par 5s check in at 506 and 551 yards, and those holes were the easiest two on the course in 2022.

Sony Open Key Stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: around-the-green
• SG: off-the-tee (accuracy over distance)
• Proximity: 175-200 yards
• Birdie or better percentage
• Sand-save percentage

Aside from the Bermuda grees, the emphasis on the second shot is among the few similarities between Waialae CC and the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

Strokes gained: approach is again our most important stat for the week. SG: around-the-green and SG: off-the-tee follow closely behind, but be sure to value accuracy over distance at the short venue.

Who Will Win the Sony Open?

Russell Henley (+2200)

Henley lost this event in a playoff against Matsuyama in 2022, with the 2021 Masters champ putting his way to victory. He's been the better of the two in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green, two areas where Henley frequently, and currently, excels.

The 33-year-old also enters this week as the most accurate golfer in the field off the tee over everyone's last 12 rounds. He won the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba in runaway fashion over that stretch.

Course history matters a lot this week, and Henley is averaging 1.16 true strokes gained per round on the field over 34 career outings at Waialae CC. We're getting slight value on him via BetMGM's +2200 odds, as DraftKings and PointsBet are each offering a more conservative price of +2000.

K.H. Lee (+4000)

Lee lacks the course history of Henley and the rest of the contenders atop the oddsboard. However, his current form suggests a breakthrough lies ahead in Hawaii. The two-time PGA Tour champ picked up both of his victories at the comparable TPC Craig Ranch, and he's in the top 35 of all but two of our key stats this week in 2022-23. Those stats include Lee ranking sixth on Tour in proximity from 175-200 yards during the young season.

Lee is offered with odds as low as +3300 via BetMGM, so be sure to grab the added value PointsBet is offering.

Adam Svensson (+8000)

Svensson opened with odds as high as +10000 via PointsBet on Monday. While that price is gone and his odds have come down across the board, PointsBet remains the best place to invest in the Canadian.

He picked up his first career PGA Tour win at The RSM Classic during the fall swing. That victory came at the very comparable Sea Island Golf Club, which also requires quality approach shots and a good short game. This number is far too high considering that recent success and Svensson's T-7 finish at the 2022 Sony Open.

Sony Open Prop Pick

Tom Kim Top 10 (+130 via DraftKings)

This is tantalizing value for the tournament favorite to secure his fourth top-10 finishing internationally in his last six events. Those six events also include a T-11 finish at the highly-competitive CJ Cup in the fall swing.

FanDuel is offering a market-low price of +105 for Kim in this market. Run to DraftKings or PointsBet for the +130 offering. BetMGM has odds of +115 and pays out ties in full while the other books do not.

Sony Open Recent Winners

How to watch the Sony Open

Golf Channel will carry Sony Open television coverage on Thursday and Friday from 7-10:30 p.m. ET. Saturday and Sunday coverage will be carried by NBC from 4-6 p.m. ET, and then switch to Golf Channel from 6-8 p.m. ET.

Here are our top-rated sportsbook

• FanDuel: Bet $5, Get $150 in First Bet Offer | Read our FanDuel Review
• Caesars: Earn a First Bet Offer of Up to $1,250| Read our Caesars Review
• DraftKings: Get a 20% Deposit Match up to $1,000| Read our DraftKings Review
• PointsBet: Earn Five First Bet Offer of Up to $100 Each| Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a First Bet Offer of Up to $1,000| Read our BetMGM Review

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