Shriners Children's Open Odds, Picks, PGA Tour Predictions: Best Field of Fall Swing

Patrick Cantlay leads a respectable PGA Tour field to TPC Summerlin for the 2022 Shriners Children's Open, and we have our top picks and preview below.

Cantlay is among the top-heavy field looking to dethrone reigning Shriners champion Sungjae Im. In all, 11 members of the field enter the week in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Ranking. Cantlay leads that group at No. 4 in the OWGR and is this week's consensus betting favorite as a former champion at TPC Summerlin.

Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2022 Shriners Children's Open based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

Shriners Children's Open Odds

Shriners Children's Open Odds Analysis

There's a fair bit of variance in the odds to win this week at our top-rated sportsbooks. While Cantlay is a consensus +650 favorite (13.33% implied win probability), Im's odds to win outright vary by as much as $3.

One of the biggest discrepancies is with Mito Pereira, who enters the week at No. 49 in the OWGR. His implied win probability ranges from 1.96% via DraftKings Sportsbook to 1.49% via BetMGM.

Going by the measure of the OWGR, there's some value on Tom Kim and K.H. Lee this week. And Taylor Montgomery seems to be favored a little too heavily while entering the week just 77th in the OWGR and 24th in this field.

Check out our Shriners Children's Open power rankings.  

Shriners Children's Open Picks

TPC Summerlin Course Profile

Par: 71
Length: 7,255 yards
Greens: Bentgrass

Though it runs through the desert, TPC Summerlin is still filled with water hazards. Four of the final six holes prominently feature a water hazard in front of or alongside the green. No. 17 and No. 18 both played above par in 2021.

Still, Im won the 2021 event at -24, with Matthew Wolff the runner-up at -20. Fifteen golfers shot at least -15 over four rounds, but only 11 scored in the 60s all four days. Twelve holes played below par for the tournament. The easiest was the 563-yard, par-5 ninth at a scoring average of 4.41. The most difficult hole was the 492-yard, par-4 third at a scoring average of 4.19.

The most common par-4 range is 400-450 yards with seven such holes. Three of the four par 3s are shorter than 200 yards, with a long of 239 yards. Just one of the four played below par in 2021.

There were five eagles carded on the 341-yard, par-4 15th, which provides an excellent finishing boost for those able to take advantage.

Shriners Children's Open Key Stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: tee-to-green
• SG: around-the-green
• Scrambling
• Par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards
• Proximity: 125-150 yards

Low scores are fairly within reach at TPC Summerlin, so our main focus is on the key par-4 range of 400-450 yards. From there, we're seeking ball-strikers and strong short games. Just 10 of the 20 golfers to finish T-14 or better in the 2021 event hit at least 70% of their fairways, and 14 of the top 20 averaged more than 310 yards off the tee.

Scrambling percentage can be used in combination with SG: around-the-green to counter wayward drives and any difficulty with the water hazards.

Cantlay, who won at TPC Summerlin in 2017 and has recorded four career appearances during this event, is the field's leader with an average of 2.89 true total strokes gained on the field per round. He was the runner-up in each of the two years after his victory, and Cantlay also logged a T-8 finish in this event in 2020.

Who Will Win the Shriners Children's Open?

Kim (+2200)

Kim enters this week at No. 21 in the OWGR, and he would continue his meteoric rise up the world ranking with a second PGA Tour win. The 20-year-old from South Korea won the Wyndham Championship in early August, and he'll be making his first appearance at TPC Summerlin.

Kim hasn't teed it up outside of the Presidents Cup since being knocked out of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with a T-54 finish at the BMW Championship, just two weeks after his maiden victory. However, across his last 12 rounds dating back to the Wyndham, he leads this field with 1.29 SG: approach per round to go with 1.42 SG: tee-to-green and 0.54 SG: putting. 

Davis (+4000)

Cam Davis has made three appearances at this event without missing a cut. His best career finish at the Shriners Children's Open was a T-27 in 2021, when Davis lost strokes on and around the green.

Davis has given up 0.06 strokes per round on his approach shots across the 27-year-old's last 12 rounds. However, he averaged 0.61 SG: around-the-green, with 0.85 SG: tee-to-green per round during that time. He also ranked 50th on the PGA Tour in 2021 in SG: approach and was T-25 in proximity from this week's key distance of 125-150 yards.

We're paying up for the Aussie, who enters the week at No. 66 in the OWGR. But he fits the course well and is displaying a better form with his short game.

Pereira (+6600)

We're going to grab the rogue number available on Mito Pereira via BetMGM and run with it.

The Chilean ranks 49th in the world and hasn't played since the BMW Championship. Pereira was averaging 0.89 SG: approach per round across his final 12 rounds of the 2021-22 season. That ranks fifth in this field among those with 12 measured rounds.

Pereira also tied for 40th during his debut at TPC Summerlin in 2021. That modest experience should lead to a boost following a horrible performance on and around the greens. He managed to average 1.32 SG: approach and 1.47 SG: tee-to-green per round at TPC Summerlin in 2021.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

Shriners Children's Open picks made on 10/3/2022 at 4 p.m. ET.