Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds, Picks, Predictions: PGA Tour Season Resumes in Hawaii

Kapalua, Hawaii welcomes a 39-man PGA Tour field for a no-cut event that begins the 2023 schedule. Check out below for our breakdown of the best golf odds and picks to win the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua.

Cameron Smith isn't back to defend his title at the Sentry Tournament of Champions after the Australian joined the controversial LIV Golf Invitational Series last summer. That leaves Jon Rahm, who enters the week at No. 5 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), as the consensus favorite to win.

Joining Rahm at the top of the odds board are Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, and Xander Schauffele in a star-studded field. 

Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions based on the odds at our best sportsbooks.

Check out our Sentry Tournament of Champions fantasy golf power rankings, and our look at the best Masters odds and WM Phoenix Open odds!

Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds

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Sentry Tournament of Champions Best Odds

As is often the case with the odds when betting on the PGA Tour, any notable discrepancies at the top of the board disappeared by Tuesday morning. Rahm remains the consensus favorite, though the most common price has risen slightly to +650. FanDuel Sportsbook is now offering the outlier of +600.

Most of the top contenders had their odds shorten. This is likely a result of Rory McIlroy's withdrawal and the stars drawing the majority of the early betting handle in the elite field.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks

Plantation Course at Kapalua Course Profile

Par: 73
Length: 7,596 yards
Greens: Bermuda

The sheer length of the Plantation Course is possibly overcompensated by the fact that it's the only par-73 course on the PGA Tour. The primary defense of the ocean-side venue is the often-harsh winds. Those didn't blow last year, allowing Smith to set the tournament record with a winning score of minus-34, which was just one stroke better than Rahm and two strokes better than third-place finisher Matt Jones. Three golfers set Kapalua's 18-hole record of 12-under par, 61 last year.

The large Bermuda greens play quite slowly, which allows for even better scoring. Without the wind, there's very little risk of trouble off the tee, allowing the PGA Tour's best and longest hitters to go all out.

All but three holes played below par in last year's Sentry Tournament of Champions. The easiest was the 526-yard, par-5 fifth hole at a scoring average of 4.099. It featured 10 eagles and 122 birdies against just five bogeys over 72 holes for the field.

The three par 3s range from 161 to 219 yards; the longest of which played over par last year. The 11 par 4s are evenly distributed. Four are shorter than 400 yards, four range from 400-450 yards, and three exceed 500 yards. Only the 520-yard first and 550-yard 17th played over par last year. All four par 5s played at least 0.434 strokes below par last year with 30 combined eagles carded between them.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Key Stats

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: off-the-tee
• 3-putt avoidance
• Proximity: 200-plus yards
• Par-5 scoring

Though winds and tee-time draws can derail even the best models for the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Plantation Course is primarily a second-shot golf course. We can focus on proximity from outside of 200 yards, especially on the par 5s. Most golfers in the field will be trying to reach the green in two and go for eagle every time.

Putting was a major key to Smith's success last year. Three-putt avoidance tends to be a little more predictable of success than strokes gained: putting, so we can focus there. Value distance over accuracy when looking at SG: off-the-tee, as there is little penalty with the wide fairways.

Who Will Win the Sentry Tournament of Champions?

Xander Schauffele (+1100)

Schauffele ranks third in this field with an average of 2.35 true strokes gained per round across his 20 career rounds at the Plantation Course. His 12th-place finish last year was his worst result since his tournament debut in 2018. He won in 2019, was a co-runner-up in 2020, and tied for fifth in 2021.

Schauffele also ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last season in proximity from 200-225 yards, eighth in three-putt avoidance, and seventh in SG: approach. 

Though Rahm has the better course history despite never winning this event, we can't turn down the value with Schauffele being offered at double the odds at most sportsbooks. BetMGM is offering the best price in the market. The 8.33% implied probably is much more justifiable in the 39-man field.

Tony Finau (+1400)

Finau started and finished the 2022 calendar year at No. 12 in the OWGR, but he already has a win for the 2022-23 season. His Houston Open victory propelled him from No. 15 to No. 12 in the world ranking.

Finau has made three appearances at this event with a best finish of T-9 in 2017 and a T-19 result last year. He has averaged 0.79 true strokes gained on the field per round across his 12 rounds at this venue. He's also been the best putter on Tour across everyone's last 12 rounds overall entering this week, with an average of 1.78 SG: putting per round. That complements his 0.98 SG: approach and 2.62 SG: tee-to-green per round. 

We were receiving a much better number on Finau to win via Caesars than what was available at PointsBet or BetMGM on Monday, but the market is now aligned on the +1400 number. 

Billy Horschel (+8000)

Given the elite nature of the "Tournament of Champions," it's dangerous pursuing long shots in this event. However, the number is too high for Horschel, who enters the week at No. 18 in the OWGR. He won once last year to go with a runner-up finish and five other top-10 showings.

Horschel hasn't had a whole lot of success in this event, but he enters the 2023 tournament with a field-best 1.85 SG: approach per round across his last 12 rounds. Though not a particularly long hitter, Horschel tied for 32nd on Tour last season in par-5 scoring and was still 50th in SG: off-the-tee.

FanDuel is offering market-low odds of +4200 but nearly every other one of best sportsbooks raised the odds over night. Caesars is now the place to go.

Sentry Tournament of Champions Recent Winners

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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• PointsBet: Earn Five Free Bets of Up to $100 Each| Read our PointsBet Review
• BetMGM: Get a Free Bet of Up to $1,000| Read our BetMGM Review

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