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Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the first tee as we offer our Players Championship sleeper picks.
Rickie Fowler of the United States plays his shot from the first tee during the third round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Golf Course on March 04, 2023 in Orlando, Florida. Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images via AFP.

TPC Sawgrass is hosting the best field in golf once again this week, but the venue has produced no shortage of dark-horse winners. Read on as we look for the top long-shot picks in our 2023 Players Championship sleeper predictions.

Known for its required pinpoint accuracy, TPC Sawgrass is the perfect course at which to throw some darts with your PGA Tour bets.

For the fourth time in five weeks, the golf betting board is fronted by Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler. With those three topping the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), they're rightfully the favorites once again, this time for The Players Championship.

However, plenty of long-shot winners have seemingly come out of nowhere in this event. We'll look for those being undervalued in The Players Championship odds as we offer our top Players Championship sleeper predictions (odds via our best sportsbooks).

Players Championship sleeper picks

Players Championship long shots

Rickie Fowler (+6600 via PointsBet)

Fowler nearly made it in as one of my top Players Championship picks but I decided to stick with three more confident bets. I'm still adding the five-time PGA Tour winner and 2015 Players Champion to my card, as he serves as one of my best bets for the tournament as a sleeper pick.

After losing his invitations to several of the majors and not playing this event last year, Fowler has surged from No. 103 in the OWGR at the end of 2022 to No. 71 entering this week. Still just 34 years old, Fowler has playoff wins over Rory McIlroy and Sergio Garcia in his career and is once again competing against the best golfers in the world.

Fowler tied for 31st at last week's ultra-difficult Arnold Palmer Invitational. That followed T-20 and T-10 finishes in the first two elevated events of the season. Those came after a co-runner-up finish in a strong field at the Zozo Championship in the fall. Fowler's gaining 1.14 true strokes on approach per round across his last 12 measured rounds, good enough to rank seventh in this elite field.

Fowler's odds are as low as +5000 via FanDuel to win The Players Championship, so be sure to place this bet with PointsBet.

Si Woo Kim (+7000 via BetMGM)

Kim already has a win this season, his fourth on the PGA Tour. The champion of the Sony Open in Hawaii in early January, Kim will now look for his second Players Championship victory after winning at TPC Sawgrass in 2017. That championship came by a three-stroke margin over Louis Oosthuizen and Ian Poulter.

Though Kim hasn't cracked the top 20 in any of his last five events, he missed only one cut in that span. He tied for 39th during last week's Arnold Palmer Invitational with a final round of minus-2 to move up the leaderboard.

Kim's poor iron play of late is a major concern heading to TPC Sawgrass, but he's driving and putting well, and he has clearly shown he knows how to navigate this oft-unpredictable venue. Kim tied for ninth in this event in 2021 before being forced to withdraw last year. These odds are as low as +5500 elsewhere among our best sports betting sites so we're receiving excellent value from BetMGM.

Sam Burns (+9000 via FanDuel)

I convinced all of my colleagues at Sportsbook Review to bet on Burns to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational at what I thought was an egregious price from the sportsbooks with odds of +7000 or higher by Thursday morning. We were rewarded with a horribly missed cut, as Burns struggled primarily with his iron play.

I'm willing to get suckered in again. Even after last week's result, Burns is 14th in the OWGR with a recent finish of T-6 at the WM Phoenix Open and four PGA Tour wins on his resume. After missing the cut at TPC Sawgrass in 2021, Burns returned to post a T-26 finish amid horrendous weather last year.

Although his approach game has been missing across his last 12 measured rounds, Burns has remained hot with the putter and is averaging 0.59 SG: off-the-tee and 1.10 SG: total in that time frame. The +9000 available via Fanduel is worth a sprinkle with Caesars offering Players Championship odds as low as +6600 for Burns to win outright.

Recent Players Championship winners

YearWinnerScore to ParWinning MarginOdds
2022Cameron Smith-131 stroke+3000
2021Justin Thomas-141 stroke+2000
2019Rory McIlroy-161 stroke+1400
2018Webb Simpson-184 strokes+10000
2017Si Woo Kim-103 strokes+5000

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