Pebble Beach Pro-Am Predictions & Odds: It's a Good Week to Bet a Long Shot
There's been plenty of early movement in the odds to win this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Jordan Spieth entered the week ranked No 16 in the Official World Golf Ranking as the consensus favorite but he's been overtaken at most of our best sportsbooks by Matt Fitzpatrick. Check out below as we preview the event and offer up our top Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks.
Fitzpatrick (No. 10) Spieth lead the way over Viktor Hovland (No. 11) as the favorites to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Spieth finished two strokes behind 2022 Pebble Beach champion Tom Hoge and won this event in 2017.
Celebrity staples, comedian Bill Murray and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen will also be participating in Pebble Beach, CA this week.
This week's event serves as a bit of a tune-up for the powerful field expected to be at next week's WM Phoenix Open, and we're already looking at those odds, as well as The Players Championship odds, the Masters odds, and the PGA Championship odds.
Read on for our top picks for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am (odds via our best sportsbooks).
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds
|Matt Fitzpatrick||+1100||+1100||+900 ❄️||+1100||+1100|
|Jordan Spieth||+1200||+1100||+1000 ❄️||+1100||+1200|
|Viktor Hovland||+1200||+1100||+1000 ❄️||+1100||+1200|
|Seamus Power||+1900||+2100||+2000||+1600 ❄️||+2500 🔥|
|Maverick McNealy||+1800||+1700||+2000||+1400 ❄️||+2000|
|Tom Hoge||+2200||+1900 ❄️||+2000||+2200||+2200|
|Andrew Putnam||+3000 🔥||+2400||+2500||+1800 ❄️||+2800|
|Justin Rose||+3500||+3200||+2800 ❄️||+3500||+4000 🔥|
|Matt Kuchar||+3500||+3700||+2800 ❄️||+4000||+4000|
|Joel Dahmen||+4500||+3600||+3300 ❄️||+5000 🔥||+4500|
|Denny McCarthy||+4000||+3400 ❄️||+4000||+4500||+4500|
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds analysis
There has been a lot of movement in the odds to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am throughout the week. The odds have ticked up on Spieth, Fitzpatrick, and Hovland, while second-tier contenders such as Seamus Power have had their odds dropped at most of our best sports betting sites following the early wave of betting action.
One outlier when comparing the outright odds to the OWGR is Kevin Kisner. He's the sixth-best golfer in the field while ranked 32nd in the world, but he has odds as high as +10000 via PointsBet to win this week.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks
- Seamus Power (+2500 via PointsBet)
- Russell Knox (+9000 via PointsBet)
- Matthew NeSmith (+9000 via PointsBet)
Pebble Beach Golf Links course profile
Length: 6,972 yards
Greens: Poa Annua
We're back to a three-course rotation for this week's Pebble Beach Pro-Am before finally getting some stability (and better predictability) with next week's WM Phoenix Open.
Every player in the field will cycle through Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club over the first three days of the tournament. After the 54-hole cut, the remaining top 65 golfers (and ties) will play Pebble Beach GL on Sunday. Pebble Beach is one of two par 72 courses, with Spyglass Hill measuring fewer than 100 yards longer. Monterey Peninsula is a par 71 at 6,957 yards.
Each of the last eight champions of this event finished at least 17-under par. Hoge was the fourth winner in that span with a 72-hole score of minus-19 in a two-stroke victory. Twenty-three golfers finished 10-under par or better last year.
Twelve holes on Pebble Beach Golf Links played to a scoring average below par in 2022, including each of the final five to set up for a potentially exciting finish. Each of the four par 5s, playing to lengths ranging from 516 to 580 yards, played below par with a total of 83 eagles carded. Two of the four par 3s played below par.
The par 4s range from 331 to 504 yards. The most common range is between 400-450 yards, though four are shorter than 400 yards.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am key stats
- Strokes gained: approach
- SG: around-the-green
- Par 5 scoring
- Birdie or better percentage
- Proximity: 100-125 yards
Pebble Beach GL, in particular, is a second-shot golf course and the extremely small greens by PGA Tour standards put a heavy emphasis on strokes gained: approach. Relatedly, play around the greens will be important for those who need to scramble to make par or salvage birdie opportunities.
Taking advantage of the par 5s with birdies or eagles is a requirement for success over the 36 holes the leaders will play on Pebble Beach GL.
The key proximity distance for approach shots on PBGL is 100-125 yards.
Who will win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am?
Seamus Power (+2200 via PointsBet)
Power's odds to win opened as high as +2500 via DraftKings before falling at most of our top sports betting sites throughout the first day of betting. PointsBet's +2200 offering is the best remaining price and that still presents strong value over the +1900 now available elsewhere. The Irishman is coming off a T-9 finish in this event last year.
Power claimed his second PGA Tour victory at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in October. That started a run of three straight top-five finishes which ended his 2022 playing calendar. He began the new year with a T-25 finish during the Sentry Tournament of Champions and tied for 20th against a strong field for the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship.
Power is gaining strokes in every major category across his last 11 measured rounds, including 0.57 true strokes gained per round on approach. He's also tied for 43rd for the 2022-23 PGA Tour in par-5 scoring average, and he is ninth in birdie-or-better percentage.
Russell Knox (+9000 via BetMGM)
Knox had a career-best T-7 finish in this event in 2021 and followed it up with a T-33 showing last year. Over 16 career rounds on Pebble Beach GL, he has averaged 0.73 true strokes gained per round on the field. With odds as low as +6000 via Caesars this week, the +9000 available via PointsBet represents a very strong long-shot bet.
Knox ranks second in this field with an average of 1.31 SG: approach across his last 13 measured rounds. He has struggled off the tee, but that has been mostly due to a lack of distance. He's been one of the most accurate drivers in this field over that time, and that's the area to emphasize at Pebble Beach. He's also 14th this season in proximity from 100-125 yards.
Matthew NeSmith (+9000 via PointsBet)
NeSmith tied for 11th in the 2020 Pebble Beach Pro-Am and followed that up with a T-16 result in 2021 before making the cut but failing to finish in last year's event. His odds to win this week are as low as +6000 via Caesars so PointsBet is again giving us the best number on another long shot to back.
Beyond the top three names in this year's field, this event is wide open. Looking at the historical list of winners, it has long been a good event in which to bet long shots. Outside of the course dominance of former PGA Tour pros Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson, it's tough to expect the top names to be putting forth their best effort, especially ahead of next week's marquee event in Phoenix.
NeSmith is third in this field, behind Knox, in SG: approach over his last 12 measured rounds. He's also gaining strokes around and on the greens, and from tee to green. Like Knox, he has been much more accurate with the driver than long. For the 2022-23 season, NeSmith ranks 20th in SG: approach, T-45 in par-5 scoring average, and 50th in birdie-or-better percentage.
Recent Pebble Beach Pro-Am winners
|Year||Winner||Score to Par||Winning Margin|
|20222||Tom Hoge||-19||2 strokes|
|2021||Daniel Berger||-18||2 strokes|
|2020||Nick Taylor||-19||4 strokes|
|2019||Phil Mickelson||-19||3 strokes|
|2018||Ted Potter Jr.||-17||3 strokes|
How to watch the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
The Pebble Beach Pro-Am will be aired on Golf Channel from 3-6 p.m. ET Thursday to Friday, and from 1-3 p.m. ET on Saturday and Sunday. CBS will carry the tournament from 3-7 p.m. ET Thursday to Saturday, and from 3-6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday.
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