Pebble Beach Pro-Am Expert Picks: Best Outright, Long-Shot, Prop Bets
This is a bit of a down week on the PGA Tour in preparation for what will be an elite field at TPC Sawgrass for next week's WM Phoenix Open. That said, the field for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is still headlined by Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Viktor Hovland, as we offer up our expert picks.
Tom Hoge returns to defend his 2022 title at Pebble Beach against former winner and last year's runner-up, Spieth. However, after the top few names on the odds board, this becomes a wide-open event so we're targeting long shots with our Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks.
Here are our expert picks for the 2023 Pebble Beach Pro-Am based on the best odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and PointsBet.
Check out our Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions and power rankings.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am tournament info
When: Thursday, Feb. 2 - Sunday, Feb. 5
Where: Pebble Beach Golf Lins, Pebble Beach, CA
How to watch: Golf Channel and CBS
2022 winner: Tom Hoge
Pebble Beach Pro-Am expert picks
|Esten McLaren||Neil Parker||Shane Jackson|
|To win||Seamus Power (+2500 via PointsBet)||Matt Fitzpatrick (+1100 via DraftKings)||Tom Hoge (+2200 via PointsBet)|
|Long shot||Matthew NeSmith (+8500 via FanDuel)||Nick Taylor (+7000 via FanDuel)||Nate Lashley (+8000 via FanDuel)|
|Favorite prop||Top Asian: Satoshi Kodaira (+900 via BetMGM)||Ben Griffin to finish Top 20 (+280 via PointsBet)||Brendon Todd to finish Top 10 (+850 via FanDuel)|
Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks to win
Seamus Power (+2500 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
After Power opened with odds as high as +2500 via DraftKings on Monday, it seemed as though the best of the number was long gone by Monday evening. Power's odds to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am dipped to +1900 at several of our best sportsbooks. Fortunately, PointsBet came to the rescue with a +2500 listing as of Tuesday afternoon.
The Irishman tied for ninth in this event last year following a missed cut in 2021 and a T-38 finish in 2020. Power enters this week at No. 28 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) after winning during the fall swing and ending his 2022 season with two more top-five finishes. I like his well-rounded game which includes 1.79 true strokes gained on the field across his last 11 measured rounds. He's also ninth on the PGA Tour for the 2022-23 season in birdie-or-better percentage. - McLaren
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
There isn’t a more complete golfer in this watered-down field, and Fitzpatrick is in the midst of a breakout stretch that includes playing the weekend in 20 of 22 worldwide events, winning the U.S. Open, and posting another eight top-5 finishes. He also enters in top statistical form with the sixth-ranked true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 33 measured rounds.
Fitzpatrick has the short-game chops required to win at Pebble, and he carded a T-6 result during last season’s tournament. While I don’t typically target golfers in this odds range, everything lines up for the 28-year-old Englishman, and there are question marks surrounding the rest of the Pebble Beach field. - Parker
Tom Hoge (+2200 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
I tend to start my cards with a player in the 20/1 range, and the defending champ of this event barely qualifies in this case. Hoge is listed at 20/1 at four of our five best sportsbooks, with PointsBet offering the best price on him at +2200.
Hoge leads the field in strokes gained: approach over the last 50 measured rounds, and that will be key during this event. He gained four strokes on approach during his win ins this event last year and finished T-12 the year before. Hoge has three made cuts this month, including a third-place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and somehow doesn’t seem to be a popular pick this week. - Jackson
Check out our WM Phoenix Open odds and our The Players Championship odds.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am long-shot picks
Matthew NeSmith (+8500 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
NeSmith is checking a lot of boxes as a sexy long-shot pick this week. Though he made the cut but didn't finish last year's event, he previously tied for 16th in 2021 and for 11th in 2020.
He also ranks third in this field with 1.22 strokes gained: approach across his last 12 measured rounds. That trails only Hoge and Russell Knox. NeSmith ranks better than both of them in SG: around-the-green, SG: tee-to-green, and SG: total over that same time. While his play with the driver has held him back at times this season, he's been much more accurate than long, and that'll play well at Pebble Beach GL.
These odds are as low as +6000 elsewhere, so be sure to make this bet at FanDuel. - McLaren
Nick Taylor (+7000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Taylor has a proven track record at Pebble Beach, and he enters the week ranked 32nd in SG: approach, 36th in SG: around-the-green, and 37th in SG: tee-to-green. He made the cut in each of his last four trips to this event, which includes his win here in 2020.
Missing the cut in two of his past three tournaments isn’t as inspiring, but we’re landing a long number for a well-rounded player. Taylor’s carded two top-10 finishes and another two top-25 showings through eight events this season. Additionally, we’re gaining a decent edge with the number through FanDuel. There’s a 14% positive expected value compared to the +6000 odds via DraftKings. - Parker
Nate Lashley (+8000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Esten McLaren wrote that this event might be the time to back long shots earlier this week, and it is hard to disagree with that notion. One could probably fill an entire card with long shots, and just pray that Fitzpatrick doesn’t lap the field in the end.
I have my eye on Lashley, who ranks 22nd in stroke gained: approach over the last 50 rounds. He finished T-7 at the Sony Open before a missed cut at The American Express the following weekend. Lashley has a T-28 and a T-5 in his last two showings in this event and has the potential to emerge in a wide-open field. - Jackson
Check out our Masters odds and PGA Championship odds.
Pebble Beach Pro-Am prop picks
Top Asian: Satoshi Kodaira (+900 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Asian contingent in Pebble Beach is rather weak. While we've seen flashes from the likes of S.H. Kim and Byeong Hun An, who are the favorites in this regional group, early in 2023, I prefer to back last year's T-33 finisher at a much better price.
Kodaira rebounded from a missed cut at The American Express for a T-53 finish last week. He also tied for 16th against a strong field at the Zozo Championship in the fall. The 303rd-ranked golfer in the world can lean on his accuracy off the tee, his approach game, and his strong putting to find more success at this venue. - McLaren
Ben Griffin Top 20 (+280 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐⭐
I’d be more confident if Griffin wasn’t playing this tournament for the first time, but the rookie has shown well in weaker fields this season and has played the weekend in nine consecutive PGA Tour events. Add ranking seventh in true SG: approach and eighth in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 30 measured rounds, and I’m encouraged with his statistical form.
Griffin is trading as low as +220 to card a top-20 finish through BetMGM, So we’re also landing a notably better price through PointsBet. Securing the +280 odds presents 19% positive expected value over the +220 number. - Parker
Brendon Todd to finish Top 10 (+850 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Todd was nearly my long-shot pick at 80/1, but I’ll take the +850 price on him to finish inside the top 10 instead since he already has two such finishes in his career here. This market is available at FanDuel, which has a +110 offering on frontrunner Fitzpatrick to finish near the top of the leaderboard this weekend.
After finishing T-16 at this event last year, Todd clearly has a chance to be in the mix come Sunday. He finished T-21 at the Sony Open two weeks ago, in which he gained nearly five strokes with his putter. Get another performance like that from him with his flatstick and this +850 ticket has some serious life. - Jackson
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds
|Matt Fitzpatrick||+1100||+1100||+900 ❄️||+1100||+1100|
|Jordan Spieth||+1200||+1100||+1000 ❄️||+1100||+1200|
|Viktor Hovland||+1200||+1100||+1000 ❄️||+1100||+1200|
|Seamus Power||+1900||+2100||+2000||+1600 ❄️||+2500 🔥|
|Maverick McNealy||+1800||+1700||+2000||+1400 ❄️||+2000|
|Tom Hoge||+2200||+1900 ❄️||+2000||+2200||+2200|
|Andrew Putnam||+3000 🔥||+2400||+2500||+1800 ❄️||+2800|
|Justin Rose||+3500||+3200||+2800 ❄️||+3500||+4000 🔥|
|Matt Kuchar||+3500||+3700||+2800 ❄️||+4000||+4000|
|Joel Dahmen||+4500||+3600||+3300 ❄️||+5000 🔥||+4500|
|Denny McCarthy||+4000||+3400 ❄️||+4000||+4500||+4500|
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