Hero World Challenge Picks, Odds, PGA Tour Predictions: Tiger Withdraws from Own Event

Tiger Woods hosts a small but star-studded field for the 2022 Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas. Check out our preview and top picks for the Hero World Challenge.

Woods was supposed to play for the first time since his disappointing missed cut at The Open Championship but announced via Twitter on Monday afternoon that he was forced to withdraw due to plantar fasciitis.

Woods' withdrawal leaves a 19-man field at Albany Golf Course in The Bahamas. The field includes Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and defending Hero World Challenge winner Viktor Hovland. Rory McIlroy is among the notable absences.

Here are our top picks and predictions for the 2022 Hero World Challenge based on the odds via our top-rated sportsbooks.

Hero World Challenge Odds

Hero World Challenge Odds Analysis

Rahm, who enters the week at No. 5 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) but with two wins on the DP World Tour this fall, is the runaway consensus tournament favorite. His implied win probability is as high as 16.67% via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best price on the tournament favorite with odds of +550 still representing a 15.38% implied win probability.

Scheffler and Tony Finau follow suit at each of our top sportsbooks. From there, we start to get some variation in the odds. Hovland represents some potential value as the defending champion is seventh in this field by the measure of the OWGR and is seventh on the odds board at most sportsbooks.

Hero World Challenge Picks

Albany Golf Course Profile

Par: 72
Length: 7,414 yards

Albany GC is a links-style venue but with many water hazards. Sand dunes as high as 30 feet can alter approach angles and shot shapes.

Last year, 10 holes played below par. The 552-yard, par-5 15th was the lowest-scoring hole on the course at a stroke average of 4.15 with 11 eagles and 47 birdies carded against a single bogey.

The five par 5s range between 552 and 632 yards. Par 4s range between 307 and 498 yards. The most common range is 450-500 yards with four such holes. Two of the five par 3s exceed 200 yards with a low of 179 and a high of 217.

In the six years that this event has been held at Albany GC, the winning scores have ranged from 18-under par to minus-25. Hovland won at minus-18 last year with 12 other golfers finishing at 10-under or better.

Hero World Challenge Key Stats

Strokes gained: off-the-tee
SG: around-the-green
Sand-save percentage
Par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards
Birdie or better percentage

Thirteen of the 20 members of this year's field have made at least one appearance at the Hero World Challenge in Albany. Corey Conners, Max Homa, Sungjae Im, Tom Kim, Shane Lowry, and Cameron Young are those making their debuts in this week's event.

Jordan Spieth leads this field with 20 career rounds played at this venue, but Hovland won in his debut last fall. Rahm leads the field with 3.83 true strokes gained on the field per round. He won this event in 2018 and was the runner-up in 2019.

Strokes gained: off-the-tee is the top stat to consider due to the length of Albany GC. Play around the greens must also be monitored in combination with sand-save percentage.

Who Will Win the Hero World Challenge?

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1200)

Matt Fitzpatrick's lone victory on any tour in 2022 was the U.S. Open in mid-June. In addition to the Englishman's first PGA Tour win, he won the DP World Tour's Andalucia Masters last fall, and he lost in a playoff to Robert MacIntyre at the Italian Open this September.

Fitzpatrick tied for 12th in his debut in this event last year. He sets up as a strong course fit after ranking 10th in the PGA Tour in SG: off-the-tee and seventh in SG: around-the-green last season. He was also sixth in sand-save percentage.

The major champion is priced at +1200 across the board, but that number could rise closer to Thursday with some of the more popular names at the top of the board likely to draw the majority of the cash bet on the Hero World Challenge.

Justin Thomas (+1200)

Speaking of more popular names, Justin Thomas makes his fifth appearance at Albany GC after back-to-back T-5 results in this event. Thomas won this year's PGA Championship to snap a winless drought of over a year.

Entering the week eighth in the OWGR, Thomas' lone event of the PGA Tour's fall swing was The CJ Cup, in which he tied for 40th. The time off this fall, especially compared to the likes of Rahm and Scheffler, may be helping boost Thomas' odds as high as the +1200 available via BetMGM.

Thomas was 16th on Tour in SG: off-the-tee, 15th in SG: around-the-green, eighth in sand-save percentage, and second in birdie or better percentage last season.

Sungjae Im (+1600)

Im is among this week's debutants in the Hero World Challenge. He enters the week 21st in the OWGR. After beginning the fall swing with a promising seventh-place showing at the Shriners Children's Open, Im finished just T-29 and T-34 in smaller fields at the Zozo Championship and The CJ Cup, respectively.

The sportsbooks are seemingly high on Im this week with consensus odds of +1600. It's not hard to see why, as the South Korean star is a strong course fit after ranking eighth on Tour in SG: off-the-tee last year. Im was also 12th in SG: around-the-green and 24th in birdie or better percentage for the 2021-22 PGA Tour season.

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

• FanDuel Sportsbook
• Caesars Sportsbook
• DraftKings Sportsbook
• PointsBet
• BetMGM

Hero World Challenge picks made on 11/28/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.