FedEx St. Jude Championship Expert Picks and PGA Tour Bet Slips

TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN, hosts this week's FedEx St. Jude Invitational and our PGA Tour betting experts break it down with their top picks.

Two-time FedEx Cup winner Rory McIlroy enters the first event of the 2021-22 playoffs as the consensus betting favorite for the FedEx St. Jude Championship. This year's field consists of 122 of the 125 eligible golfers based on the season-long FedEx Cup standings. The top 70 in the standings after this event will be eligible to advance to next week's BMW Championship. Scottie Scheffler is in the pole position at the end of the regular season.

Below, our PGA Tour betting experts offer up their top picks for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, and Jordan Anderson are based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Expert Picks

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks to Win

Zalatoris (+2500 via Caesars Sportsbook)

Will Zalatoris left many outright bettors disappointed last week as he struggled with his driver en route to a T-21 finish. However, that finish has only helped to boost his odds at a course that seems a much better fit to his game. He tied for eighth in his debut at TPC Southwind last year.

The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year often struggles with his flat stick in big moments, but he gained strokes on the greens last week and is once again on Bermuda surfaces. He'll benefit from the wider fairways and will have a bigger advantage at a longer venue. Zalatoris also enters the week first in strokes gained: approach, second in SG: tee-to-green, and third in proximity from the key distance of 150-175 yards for the season.

Zalatoris finished T-6 or better in three of this year's four majors and as the runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. He has proven himself in many big events and there's no reason to fade him getting his long-awaited first PGA Tour win in the first event of his debut in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. - McLaren

Thomas (+2000 via PointsBet)

I'm not getting cute with this pick, especially with a +2000 available on Justin Thomas this week at the FedEx St. Jude. The fact that Thomas has not been at the top of his game since winning the PGA Championship does not worry me in the least. In fact, it is allowing me to get Thomas at a much higher price point this week.

On the season, Thomas has averaged 1.938 SG: total and is one of only five golfers who have averaged greater than 2.00 SG: total. Aside from his elite stats this season, he is a major champion and a proven winner on the PGA Tour. In case that is not enough to convince you, Thomas won the FedEx St. Jude in 2020 at TPC Southwind by three strokes.

In my opinion, Thomas has everything you are looking for in an outright winner. PointsBet has also decided to hang a +2000 price on Thomas at a time when we see sportsbooks such as DraftKings with Thomas at a price of as low as +1400. - Metler

Morikawa (+3300 via BetMGM)

Collin Morikawa is in the midst of a down year, but still managed a T-5 t the U.S. Open in June. He’s coming off a missed cut at The Open Championship, but St. Andrew's wasn't a great fit for his game, so there's little to be nervous about.

It's imperative to stay out of the rough at TPC Southwind, and Morikawa is an accurate driver of the ball. Approach is vital here, and Morikawa is T14 this season from 125-150 yards and T25 from 150-175 yards.

His flat stick remains inconsistent, but even an average week on the greens will allow him to excel. Expect Morikawa to be in the mix Sunday afternoon, despite his inflated odds. - Anderson

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Long Shot Picks

Pereira (+13000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

The books are clearly fading Mito Pereira following a stretch of four consecutive missed cuts. With two of those events taking place in Scotland and another being the U.S. Open, bettors can trust in Pereira's form from earlier in his breakout 2021-22 season.

The T-3 finisher at the PGA Championship still ranks T-13 for the season in SG: approach and 15th in SG: tee-to-green. He's also 18th in bogey avoidance and 33rd in par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards.

The near-major winner will make his professional debut at TPC Southwind, but his odds are more reflective of his poor play on links-style courses than his fit for this venue. - McLaren

Bradley (+10000 via DraftKings)

It is unlikely that you will hear too many people advocating for Keegan Bradley this week as a result of his history at TPC Southwind, however, it is this history that has enabled us to secure a favorable price at +10000.

It is always my preference to back golfers who excel at ball striking rather than putting, and Bradley has been exactly that this season. This season, Bradley has averaged 1.27 SG: tee-to-green and has had one of his best seasons on the PGA Tour in awhile.

Based on his performance this year, Bradley does not feel like a long shot with this wager, rather he feels like someone who has been mispriced and has a legitimate chance of winning this week at TPC Southwind. - Metler

Hubbard (+21000 via FanDuel)

The man they call Homeless Hubbs is primed to have a solid week in Memphis. Asking him to win may be a stretch due to the strength of the field, but if he does, his buddies will have to change the Homeless moniker.

Here's a list of the important categories for success at TPC Southwind and Hubbard's rank this season:

• Bogey Avoidance: 2nd• SG: Approach: 25th• Good Drive Percentage: 34th• Approaches from 125-150 yards: T12• Approaches from 150-175 yards: T31

As you can see, Hubbard excels in five major categories; at this number, he's worth having a piece of. - Anderson

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top Matchup Picks

Burns (+100) vs. Spieth (via DraftKings)

Sam Burns begins this week third in the FEC standings to Jordan Spieth's 15th. Burns also enters this event one spot higher than Spieth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), and he has three wins this season to Spieth's one.

Spieth has two T-12 finishes in his last three trips to TPC Southwind but Burns tied for second last year while losing to Abraham Ancer in a playoff. Burns concedes the advantage to Spieth in SG: tee-to-green and SG: around-the-green, but he outranks his counterpart in SG: approach, bogey avoidance, and par-4 efficiency: 450-500 yards.

I'd take Burns if this was an evenly priced matchup, but the +100 underdog tag makes it even that much more appealing. - McLaren

Kim (+100) vs. Henley (via DraftKings)

Our golf expert Esten McLaren predicted Joohyung Kim would win the Wyndham Championship last week and cashed in some tickets as a result of his victory. Despite the fact that he is less of an unknown this week at the FedEx St. Jude, I do not believe the markets have caught up with him completely.

The majority of Kim's season has been spent on the Asian Tour, but his performance on the PGA Tour has been nothing short of impressive. In three out of eight tournaments in which he has participated, he has gained strokes in all four major categories.

In a matchup against Russell Henley, Kim's balanced attack will allow him to compete on any course, and at a price of +100, I like the value we are receiving on him. - Metler

Henley (-130) vs. Kim (via DraftKings)

Kim took the golf world by storm last weekend by winning the Wyndham Championship after shooting an otherworldly 61 on Sunday. Though we’ve seen numerous back-to-back wins recently, this field is going to be tough to overcome for the young phenom.

Henley enters in fine form, with a T-5 and T-10 in his two most recent starts.

Just like last week, this game fits his game well. He ranks ninth on tour in good-drive percentage and has gained +33.2 strokes on approach in his past 24 rounds – ranking first in the field.

Henley is an experienced veteran and has the statistical profile to make his way up the leaderboard. Don't be afraid to back Henley here over the hot rookie. - Anderson

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top Prop Picks

McIlroy to lead after Round 1 and win (+4500 via DraftKings)

Rory McIlroy is one of the only golfers I ever take with this prop. I want no part of the tournament favorite at odds around +1000 to win this week, but the +4500 combining the first-round lead with the victory makes the Northern Irishman much more appealing. It's also important that this isn't a wire-to-wire victory; McIlroy can slip out of the top spot anytime between the start of Round 2 and the end of the tournament.

McIlroy is first on the PGA Tour this season with a first-round scoring average of 67.92. He held at least a share of the first-round lead four times this season and was second on two other occasions.

The third-ranked golfer in the world was kept out of the winner's circle in each of this year's four majors, but he can get some retribution by starting strong in his bid for a third FedEx Cup title. - McLaren

Top Australian: Smith (+130 via PointsBet)

While I took a long hard look at fellow Australian Cameron Davis in this prop, I am not convinced that he represents great value at +450. In Davis' last four tournaments, he has four top-20 finishes, but all against watered-down fields. His driving distance won't help him as much this week at TPC Southwind.

Considering Cameron Smith is in a class of his own when it comes to this nationality prop, I can justify a price of +130. This tournament is very important to Smith, as he attempts to move up to No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings and secure the -10 starting point for the Tour Championship. - Metler

Niemann Top-5 First-Round Leader (+800 via BetMGM)

Joaquin Niemann has excelled in the first round this season, ranking third overall in first-round scoring average with a 68.42 average.

We're looking for a player capable of shooting a 62. Niemann has shown a penchant for going low early after 8-under in the first round of The Genesis Invitational in February - another tough course and field.

I prefer targeting the morning wave for these bets. Niemann tee's off at 7:48 a.m. ET, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him start hot. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Finau

Tony Finau won each of his last two starts to get back to 13th in the OWGR, however, I’m fading the winner of last year's Northern Trust in the kickoff event to the 2021-22 FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Finau played this event at TPC Southwind each of the last four years. He missed the cut in 2018 and finished no better than T-27 in his other three appearances. Though his ball striking ranks near the top of this field across everyone's last 16 rounds, Finau has struggled in SG: approach and SG: tee-to-green at this venue. He also lost strokes on the greens in two of the last three years at this event. - McLaren

Morikawa

Morikawa lost strokes in every category except on approach in his last appearance at The Open Championship, which was his second consecutive missed cut on the PGA Tour. It has been a difficult second half of the season for Morikawa as he has missed the cut in three of his last four tournaments.

In the +3000 price range, there are simply so many better options than Morikawa. The current form of Morikawa does not appeal to me at a price of +3000, and I would need a much higher price point to consider backing him. - Metler

Schauffele

There’s no doubt Xander Schauffele has been on a heater after winning the Genesis Scottish Open and Traveler's Championship back-to-back in late June and early July. Still, this field will be much more robust, and I'd like to see him win a test like this before I put all my faith into him.

Other names on Caesars at +1800 and +2000 that I would rather have are Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, and Justin Thomas.

This is more of a fade of the number than Schauffele himself. Nothing personal, Xander. - Anderson

Where to Bet on the FedEx St. Jude Championship

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