Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions from Tuesday's Sports Slate
We've shopped the odds and lines at our best sportsbooks in search of today's best bets for Tuesday, March 21. Our top picks include offerings from college basketball, the NBA, PGA Tour, and Tuesday's WBC final.
College basketball has dominated the sports landscape in recent weeks, but there's also been a ton of buzz surrounding the World Baseball Classic, with its final taking place Tuesday. We'll also this week's PGA Tour event as well as Tuesday's NBA action.
Read on for today's best bets for Tuesday, March 21, based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.
Tuesday's best bets
- College basketball: North Texas +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Oklahoma State ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- NBA: Nic Claxton Over 11.5 points + Darius Garland Over 7.5 assists (+308 via FanDuel)
- WBC: Japan Moneyline (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- PGA: Jordan Spieth to win WGC-Match Play (+2500 via PointsBet)
Tuesday's college basketball best bet
North Texas +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
To this point, Oklahoma State has not looked like a team soured by the fact that it was the last one left out of the NCAA Tournament field. The Cowboys survived a road game at Youngstown State when scheduling conflicts prevented it from hosting its opening-round NIT game, and the Cowboys beat Eastern Washington by 11 in a game it led by as much as 15.
However, North Texas is 4-0 in games decided by three points or fewer, and its dominance through two NIT games (it beat Alcorn State and Sam Houston State by 36 combined points) is something to take note of. In addition, C-USA teams (FAU, UAB, Rice, and Charlotte) are a combined 9-1 in the postseason, and that trend has us more confidently backing the point spread than the total.
North Texas plays at D-I’s slowest tempo and spends an average of 21.3 seconds on offense per possession. Mike Boynton’s Oklahoma State squad will likely oblige in that slow tempo, ranking in the bottom half of the Big 12 in tempo (per KenPom) in league play.
In addition, the Cowboys rank 316th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (31.4%), and shooting over the top is a necessity against the Mean Green’s no-middle defense. Though Oklahoma State ranks sixth in Haslametrics’ near-shot proximity field-goal percentage allowed, that is not that important against a Mean Green offense that ranks 57th nationally in 3-point shooting (36.4%).
The Under is 9-5 when Oklahoma State is a home favorite and is 5-2-1 when North Texas has just one day off. Thus, we are taking the points in what should be a low-scoring affair with limited possessions.
North Texas vs. Oklahoma State odds and picks made by Mike Spector.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Tuesday's NBA best bet
Nic Claxton Over 11.5 points vs. Cavaliers (+100)
FanDuel is offering the best price on the market for the Over on Claxton's points prop, and this is most likely going to move throughout the day. DraftKings is trading the Over 11.5 points at -110, while Caesars is trading it at -114, yet we're able to purchase this at +100 through FanDuel.
Why is it going to move throughout the day? Well, Claxton should be trading with a total of 12.5 points, and the Over definitely shouldn't be plus money. As Claxton is projected to score 13.1 points against the Cavaliers, we can price the Over 11.5 points at -145 instead of +100.
Darius Garland Over 7.5 assists vs. Nets (+112)
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This prop opened at a price of +118 at FanDuel and has only moved one direction to +112. The pricing on this prop is likely to continue to move toward the Over in the long run, however, it will take some time.
It's likely that this prop will fluctuate between +105 and +115 throughout the day, with one final move occurring before tipoff to push it closer to -105. As Garland is projected to have eight assists against the Nets, we can price the Over 7.5 assists at -110, which is why I believe it will close around -105.
Parlay odds = +308 via FanDuel
NBA SGP picks made by Jon Metler.
Check out all of our NBA best bets, and our 2023 NBA Finals odds and 2023 NBA MVP odds.
Tuesday's WBC best bet
Japan ML (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Terms and conditions apply.
Japan is a team that makes pitchers work by grinding out at-bats and getting on base. That’s going to be important against a USA team that has a weak pitching staff.
Team USA starter Merrill Kelly has allowed two runs on four hits and two walks in three innings in the WBC. Their best pitcher has been Adam Wainwright, who is unavailable for this game after starting the semifinal. They can piece together a solid bullpen, but it may not matter against Japan.
Japan’s Shota Imanaga will take the mound in this one. He’s made two appearances in the WBC so far, allowing one run (a home run) on three hits while striking out five in four innings. They’ll also have Yu Darvish and potentially Shohei Ohtani available to pitch in relief.
This game should be a pick ‘em at around -110 each. Japan’s strengths of plate discipline and command should give them a bit of an edge in the final.
USA vs. Japan odds and picks made by Ryan Gilbert.
Tuesday's PGA Tour best bet
Jordan Spieth to win WGC-Match Play (+2500 via PointsBet)
Terms and conditions apply
Though he's without a win this year, no one has been coming as consistently close as Spieth. The former major champion and No. 1 golfer in the world tied for sixth in the WM Phoniex Open, for fourth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and for 19th in The Players Championship before last week's T-3 in the Valspar Championship. Spieth is once again competing well against the strongest fields in golf and is back up to 14th in the OWGR.
Spieth's form is excellently well-rounded across his last 12 measured rounds with 1.94 SG: tee-to-green, 0.28 SG: off-the-tee, and 0.90 SG: approach per round.
We lost some value in Spieth's odds overnight as the initial +2800 offering from PointsBet dropped toward the market consensus. I wouldn't make this bet at anything lower than +2500.
WGC-Match Play odds and picks made by Esten McLaren.
Check out our best betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet Up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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