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WePlay! Clutch: Esports Betting Picks and Predictions

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Adam’s 2020 WePlay! Clutch Record (updated daily)

PicksWinLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
342113+11361.76%+8.73u

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MATCH BETS – June 28

Final day of the CIS Clutch Island tournament has arrived. Natus Vincere await the winner of Spirit and Virtus Pro in the grand finals. It will be a best-of-three played after the fifth place decider between Espada and Gambit Youngsters.

Yesterday we backed Spirit against Nemiga to avenge their prior loss when they attained just 3 rounds on their T-side of Nuke enroute to a close 16-14 loss in the final map. Their re-match played out very differently with a much closer affair on Nemiga’s choice of Mirage. The first map went to overtime and the favs marginally edged out before once more handing Nemiga a smacking on Dust2.

We also backed Natus Vincere against Virtus Pro and, as hoped, they covered on two of three maps. Their CT-side left something to be desired on Dust2 however they did make a respectable comeback before eventually losing in overtime. The decider map, Train, was once more incredibly impressive. The team is just working this map so well at this tournament and it does hold a strong likelihood to surface in the grand finals once more.

I am a bit surprised this pricing between Spirit and Virtus Pro sits around where it was the last time. While I personally believe Spirit to be the better team in 2020, it’s too short. So I am giving VP another go around here. We should be seeing the same permabans come out from both sides. Spirit’s best map of the remaining five does seem to be Dust2, though I think beyond that there is not a significant enough advantage for them on any map to call their pricing value. We have seen them making improvements to their Nuke (won’t get played) and Mirage this week, so I am expecting a better performance on the maps VP somewhat rolled them on a couple of days ago.

Espada and Gambit are nearly mirrors to me ratings, though subjectively the players on the Youngsters could be more talented. We shouldn’t see Nuke or Vertigo here either, but otherwise this is a perfect illustration of a series where whomever performs better on the day will win it.

Esports Picks:

Virtus Pro ml v Spirit @ +125 with BetOnline
Espada +1.5 v Gambit @ -180 [2%]
Espada ml v Gambit @ +160 [1.5%]

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MATCH BETS – June 27

Nemiga took Navi the full distance yesterday with three long maps, two which went to overtime! We hit everything on that series except the match moneyline. Maps two and three each held some nice comebacks for the respective teams but the CIS kings took down both in the extra frames. It was a great series and Nemiga almost brought it home for us.

Virtus Pro is undoubtedly on an upward trajectory. To get a sense of their ceiling, they were ranked #3 last year after their run to the finals of the Major. However, after several months of inconsistent and downright poor results, they have regained a bit of form in at least beating teams they should call their peer. Since Yekindar joined they have lost two best-of-threes; a close affair with Big clan, and an even tighter one to Spirit…the team they had revenge against yesterday.

The CIS region is too talented not to have a few teams contending for titles. Well obviously I am not referring to this tournament as it only comprised of this region. However Spirit, Virtus Pro, and possibly Nemiga are all looking rather good at the moment…watch out Navi!

The upper-bracket final will be played today with the loser dropping down to play the winner of Spirit and Nemiga. Espada and Gambit Youngsters are playing in a 5th place decider match tomorrow as well. Every position finished has RMR points differential so all the games are meaningful…or that’s the idea anyway.

Tomorrow we will have another three matches running with the winner of the lower-bracket final meeting the winner of Navi/VP. That match is scheduled for 2pm eastern but could be earlier.

Esports Picks:

Spirit ml v Nemiga @ -150 [2%] Heritage
Navi -2.5 v Virtus Pro @ -115
Navi -2.5 v Virtus Pro @ -125
Navi -2.5 v Virtus Pro @ -120

MATCH BETS – June 26

After two days struggling to put up terrorist rounds on Nuke, Spirit finally showed an improvement. That is probably understating it significantly. Spirit posted a 12-3 T-side which puts the game out of reach, even if the opponent is decent tactically on the map, about 99.9% of the time. I like that they continued to play this map even though it was a short turnaround from the two days prior. Like I mentioned the day prior, we aren’t looking for anything more than 6 rounds on this side of this map.

Moving to Espada’s choice of Overpass, another dominant opening half. I am not really sure why they didn’t go back to Mirage as they did in the prior series. It is easier to attain rounds on T-side Mirage than Overpass, and it seemed to be another map that Spirit was not looking as dominant on this week.

In the next series, I once again backed Gambit Youngsters against the top dog in the CIS, Navi. Unfortunately, this one could not cash twice this week, though Gambit did have the opportunity. In map one, their choice of Inferno, the Youngsters held a 13-6 lead on the CT side. Both teams were incredibly patient on the T-side willing to run the clock down and trade off one another with superior numbers. Gambit also gave away far more 4v2’s and 3v2’s on that defensive side – players becoming impatient, not rotating in time, or simply missing their shots. It can be incredibly hard for pros, especially younger ones, to not wait for teammates or a flash and just peek out for info only to die to Simple picking you off with the AWP because he has been holding the angle for 20 seconds and doesn’t miss. So Gambit go on to lose that one in overtime. Moving to Train, Natus Vincere once more pulled out an excellent T-side, as we saw against Hard Legion, and it was far better than their prior meeting with Gambit.

Esports Picks:

Nemiga +1.5 v Navi @ -125
Nemiga ml v Navi @ +270
Nemiga +3.5 v Navi @ +100
Nemiga +3.5 v Navi @ +100
Nemiga +3.5 v Navi @ +100
Virtus Pro ml v Spirit @ +120 BetOnline

MATCH BETS – June 25

Winstrike had a much better performance today, but also against a lesser opponent. And they still came out on the wrong end. Three tight maps with Espada where they fell short 16-14 twice. However it wasn’t just that they lost, Winstrike had sizeable leads in maps two and three as well. On Mirage a 14-9 lead with a bank found them dropping seven straight, while on Overpass a 9-2 lead on the CT side turned into a 9-12 deficit very quickly. Altogether it was Winstrike’s best performance in some time, but we came out on the right end of that one.

Spirit played the same two maps against Nemiga as the prior day facing Espada. Remember when I said I preferred their Dust2 to their Nuke? Well, today I would like to double down on that belief. That’s twice in two days that their T-side of Nuke has been severely lacking. The difference was today they played against a team that was more their peer. Sure they battled back on Mirage and Nuke, but they should have a benchmark number of 6 rounds on the T-side against teams of this caliber on two of three maps…which they have not attained nearly frequently enough so far in their two matches.

Navi came out and crushed Hard Legion. No contest. It was like they were competing with Vitality in speedrunning a best-of-three. Finally saw a dominant T-half from them in their opening choice of Train. While there is undoubtedly a firepower discrepancy, that scoreline with today’s economy also speaks to one team not playing well, thankfully it was the other guys. Legion won the CT pistol before being decimated for 13 of 14 rounds. The last time I recall Navi having a performance like this on Train was against Virtus Pro (the Polish VP). In that match back in 2018, they lost the opening pistol and went down 3-0 before winning 12 straight rounds to end the T-half 12-3. Hard Legion was a team we scored the big upset on against Navi around +600 back in May. Train and Overpass went the distance in that first series, but you witnessed today how ugly it can get for these big dogs when they don’t play when and the goliath’s do (see Vitality).

The final series of the day was another three mapper between Virtus Pro and Gambit. While the Youngsters picked up a win on the opener of Vertigo, they had really ugly scorelines on the next two maps. And maps that they have consistently performed on too. Gambit had three of four pistols going their direction too. They were able to get some post-plant situations on Overpass going, but overall just a fantastic showing from VP in almost every map.

Esports Picks:

Spirit -1.5 v Espada @ -110 with Heritage
Gambit +1.5 v Natus Vincere @ +100
Gambit ml v Natus Vincere @ +330
Gambit +4.5 v Natus Vincere @ -125
Gambit +4.5 v Natus Vincere @ -125
Gambit +4.5 v Natus Vincere @ -130

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

MATCH BETS – June 24

Spirit opened up Tuesday with a 2-0 of countrymen, Espada. There was nothing flawed in choosing Nuke, but I hold them at a greater advantage against this particular team on Dust2, which was the decider map instead. Additionally, with their T-side round win percentage at 53, I would have expected them to get a few more rounds in the first half. Espada were deserving of the scoreline considering how many advantages went Spirit’s way. In the second half, they flexed dominantly on the underdogs limiting them to five bomb plants total in those fourteen rounds. Moving to Mirage, nothing wrong with this pick for Espada either. They are simply up against a superior team with a deep map pool and playing well.

The second series was the closest line of the day, but you may not have understood why after watching it play out. Nemiga absolutely crushed all four halves in a rapid 2-0. That’s fine Winstrike are saving strats for the major I guess…I hope. Because if they are not then this ice-cold losing streak they are on does not bode well. While Vertigo has been one of their best maps, it is also a good one for today’s opponent. The contrast is that moving to Mirage only one team looked relatively versed on it.

Gambit and Navi had a heater of a match. While Natus Vincere did not play poorly, they did not flex at any point like their 80% price tag. Each map went over the total and one bad T-side from Navi on Dust2 ended up being the difference. The final series of the day also went three maps. Overall on the decider, Inferno, Virtus Pro were the better team despite some of their players struggling to frag. VP had many opportunities to close it out but ran into an equally stalwart defense. The final difference was a 1v4 from Jame in which the CT’s overplayed their hand in the retake.

Esports Picks:

Espada ml v Winstrike @ -135 with Bookmaker
Spirit ml v Nemiga @ -190 [2%]
Spirit -2.5 v Nemiga @ -120
Spirit -2.5 v Nemiga @ -120
Spirit -2.5 v Nemiga @ -115

MATCH BETS – June 23

This CIS exclusive event begins early tomorrow morning. Geographically it includes nations formerly in the Soviet Union, however in terms of our current competitive CS scene it is primarily comprised of Russians, Ukrainians, and Kazakhstani. If you’re familiar with European matchmaking and Dust2 then you are undoubtedly well-versed in the most essential and colorful of Russian linguistics.

Navi is the most well-known organization from this region, however, almost every team competing this week has plenty of experience in high-stakes tournaments. Additionally we witnessed this field at the major qualifiers in May when the kings of the CIS lost against just about everyone. While I would be surprised to see Simple and co similarly get outplayed, and we have seen a bit of life from them in June, their price will likely be too short against nearly every opponent this week.

Virtus Pro have been on a nice run of form over the past month or so, but I was still surprised they weren’t in the 58-60% area against Hard Legion. Winstrike on the other hand has been slumping through the doldrum of many meaningless online leagues and matches. While their performance in those is not irrelevant, I want to see if it carries into Clutch Island as well.

Spirit are quickly becoming the team to beat in the region, and their win rate has not truly slowed down. While Espada are not a ‘bad’ team, I was again a little surprised to see the 3.5 spread rather than a clear 4.5 if not plus number on a 5.5, which would have me on the dog side very likely. We’ll see how day one plays out here with a very volatile region.

Esports Picks:

Gambit +1.5 v Navi @ +120 at BetOnline
Gambit ml v Navi @ +410 at Heritage
Gambit +4.5 v Navi @ -110
Gambit +4.5 v Navi @ -110
Gambit +4.5 v Navi @ -110
Hard Legion +1.5 v Virtus Pro @ -180 [2%]
Hard Legion ml v Virtus Pro @ +180 at Bookmaker
Winstrike ml v Nemiga @ +100
Spirit -3.5 v Espada @ -110
Spirit -3.5 v Espada @ -115
Spirit -3.5 v Espada @ -105