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Starcraft2 Summer Leagues: Esports Bets

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Starcraft2 Summer Leagues: Esports Bets


Adam’s Starcraft YTD Record (updated daily)

PicksWinLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
491203288+18741.22%-10.61u

MATCH BETS – Aug 8

Hit a beautiful 4-0 with Rogue over Dongraegu on Wednesday. He admitted that he took a few gambles on those first two maps, but however his execution was still sublime. DRG didn’t play poorly despite not picking up a single game, Rogue just struck him down to early in those first two and then outplayed him in the last two. So a beautiful ten unit hit on the better Zerg.

Tomorrow is the other semifinal, and there is no clear underdog unlike Wednesday’s series. Stats and Ty are currently at the top of their respective races and have been very clean overall this season of GSL. Rogue remarked that he would rather play Stats in the final as he finds Ty’s level of preparation intimidating. However it should be pointed out with so much time in between matches, and these players being on the Afreeca Freecs, one of the biggest organizations in Starcraft, that they both will be able to make the most of their preparation. I mentioned before TY played Parting that this is a race matchup that he was not been great with recently. Sure he beat Parting 3-1 in GSL but he also lost to him in a best-of-three shortly after. Parting at his best does not compare to Stats at his best and this is a question I like to pose. The best-of-seven also adds value to the Protoss here given his superior track record. I decided to put the extra unit on the moneyline though I did consider a spread or the over 5.5 alternatively.

PLEASE READ:
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

MATCH BETS – Aug 5

Tomorrow we have our first semifinal for GSL Season 2. It is a Zerg v Zerg matchup with a very unexpected Dongraegu taking on the ever-dangerous Rogue. DRG has taken some huge scalps en route to this semifinal berth; Taeja, Dear, Special, Ty, and his most impressive victory, a 3-0 against Terran machine Innovation. The critical thing here is he has not taken a win against a top Zerg since Solar back in May. In fact, that is his only one of the entire year. Rogue has had more success both against top tier players, given his own pedigree, and top-level Zergs. His most recent was a victory over Serral. It is not always a huge factor for me, but I believe the mirror matchup is important here.

The remaining three series are best-of-seven, which is usually reserved for Starcraft grand finals. The next semifinal runs Saturday morning between Stats and Ty. That promises to be a very interesting one with both players currently at the top of their respective races in form.

Rogue ml v Dongraegu @ -200 [2%]
Rogue -1.5 v Dongraegu @ -110 with BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)
Rogue -2.5 v Dongraegu @ +220
Rogue -2.5 v Dongraegu @ +550

MATCH BETS – Aug 2

It was another quality day from the GSL tournament even with the matches going 1-1. Parting opened up with a 1-0 lead, but then dropped most of any semblance of creative early game pressure. TY continued his good run against PArting with another win covering the spread by a 3-1 score. In the other GSL series Stats appears to be marching back to the top as the world’s #1 Protoss. He quite honestly played about a perfect game through the entire series. Early on in game one Trap looked to be in control of the map territory and kept Stats penned in his own base. However, it is hard not to believe Stats knew exactly what was needed as he played ultra-conservative until the exact moment when Trap committed to a less than ideal engagement. And then he just took fight after fight until Trap’s army was dismantled. Although different, all three games kinda went this way; Stats didn’t try any overtly aggressive builds, just some light pressure to keep Trap honest and provide some info but not with any real expectation of dealing economic advantage. It looked incredibly clean and Stats delivered perfectly on a delicious 3-0 price

So for some reason, the NeXT Summer group stage did a last-minute swap yesterday, or there is the less likely possibly that Liquipedia and all the sportsbooks had it wrong. Anyway, it means that we miss out on a day of trading this tournament because the matches that were supposed to run Sunday took place on Saturday and vice versa. So below is a re-post of yesterday’s card. The same format with all best of ones beginning at 4 am et. After that we should have some Duyou Cup this week, but if not GSL resumes on Wednesday.

zoun ml v soo @ +500
zoun ml v sos @ +330
scarlett ml v soo @ +300
scarlett ml v cure @ +320 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
cure ml v sos @ -150
sos ml v scarlett @ -160
scarlett ml v zoun @ -150
soo ml v cure @ +110
sos ml v soo @ +140

MATCH BETS – Aug 1

Wednesday’s GSL went well even with the series splitting. Innovation carried on his recent dip in form getting 3-0’d by Dongraegu, one of the bigger upsets in GSL Season 2. The other series delivered with Rogue hitting all three wagers with a 3-0 result. Tomorrow the other two quarter-finals are running. Parting is battling a somewhat struggling Ty, at least in regards to his performance against Protoss. That said, two of his victories against Aiur did come over Parting with a 2-1 score last month and and 4-2 in the semifinal of GSL Season1. The other quarterfinal is a PvP between two of the best in the world, Trap and Stats. I’ve gone with the better all around Toss for this one, though this matchup is incredibly volatile.

The other Starcraft tournament is Netease Esports Summer. We are halfway through the group stage which uniquely is best-of-ones all the way through. Only the top two players are progressing through. In Group B this resulted in Dark and Innovation being knocked out by Rogue and Parting. Scarlett was the most undervalued on the whole card, this is crazy pricing for best-of-ones. Only Cure has been in world class form this month, but the pedigree discrepancy is not so great.

parting ml @ +110
parting -1.5 @ +250
parting +1.5 @ -200
stats ml @ -180
stats -1.5 @ +120
stats -2.5 @ +380

zoun ml v soo @ +500
zoun ml v sos @ +330
scarlett ml v soo @ +300
scarlett ml v cure @ +320 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
cure ml v sos @ -150
sos ml v scarlett @ -160
scarlett ml v zoun @ -150
soo ml v cure @ +110
sos ml v soo @ +140

PLEASE READ:
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

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MATCH BETS – July 29

The GSL Season 2 playoffs have arrived. The quarter-finalists are known and begin their best-of-five series tomorrow. The semifinals and finals will be best-of-seven. The first match features dominant Terran, Innovation, against ancient veteran Zerg, Dongraegu. Inno did drop a best-of-three to Parting, while DRG topped his own GSL group, however the value is still with the Terran tomorrow. I’ll be taking him on the -1.5 and -2.5 markets with my esports pick.

The other quarter-final running tomorrow is also a Terran vs Zerg match, with Rogue as the shorter price taking on Dream. Dream has been around the scene for a long time, but has still not found much success in late tournament situations. Back in the day he had some 2nd place finishes at some of the bigger tournaments but still has yet to lift a notable trophy. Rogue on the other hand has that championship pedigree and somewhat drifts in and out of the top 10 in the world at any given moment.

Both underdogs present the ‘maybe they can cheese their way to a victory’ threat. That said, they are both playing against the best in the world who got to where they are being able to counter those as well. DRG and Dream should see their limited group stage success ended here and I like the prices on the favorites.

-Innovation -1.5 v Dongraegu @ -160 with BetOnline
-Innovation -2.5 v Dongraegu @ +200
-Rogue ml v Dream @ -220
-Rogue -1.5 v Dream @ +100
-Rogue -2.5 v Dream @ +300

MATCH BETS – July 25

We have another group of GSL running tomorrow, just about as stacked as we have seen. Two of the top Protoss in the world in Zest and Stats, recent Terran Dreamhack semifinalist Cure, and Rogue the Zerg contender who is a dark horse to win any tournament. I have backed the two Protoss players for tomorrow’s matches.

Stats has had a sublime July only dropping 4 of his 37 series. Why he is not favored has everything to do with his opponent’s recent run at Dreamhack, a tournament this Protoss was not a part of. This is all about the wrong player being favored here, and not a criticism of Cure’s form whatsoever.

The other series you won’t find on Pinnacle due to some suspicious shenanigans on the part of other Protoss fan favorite, Zest. I recently backed Rogue against him at a pick’em in the Douyu Cup for what I had the Zerg at 54%. Rogue lost that series 0-2 and only happened to win the two matches he was priced as an underdog, of course.

Again this isn’t about Zest or Stats being significantly superior players or hot right now. These are not bad race match-ups for players that are equally inconsistent, if not more, and the longer price.

Stats ml v Cure @ +100
Zest ml v Rogue @ +100 with BetOnline
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MATCH BETS – July 22

The second day of Group C was a bit of a funny one – profitable, but just the way it played out. Rogue dropped his series to Armani, but took a 2-0 against number one in the world, Serral. Zest was able to take victories against both Parting and Clem but again couldn’t take a map off Serral yesterday. So get this – we took Zest against Serral in that series priced around 25%. Zest lost 0-2 the only series he both lost and did not take a map. Serral only lost one series, however he did not cover the -1.5 in any series other than the Zest one – the only player to finish above him.

Clem, whom price-wise was considered to be second in the group, finished fifth out of six. The one player he beat was Armani with a 2-0. Armani was able to take maps and even a series against every player besides the French Terran. Make sense of this? Nah don’t bother. Group D will begin on Monday – prepare for more shenanigans.

Tomorrow we have another round of GSL. Maru is matched up against one of the more underrated Koreans in the scene, Solar. I’ve written at length about him before so I won’t go on here. The reason I won’t be on him tomorrow is even at +200 he is overpriced against Maru. With my luck he’ll probably beat Maru in the first match and lose 0-2 in the second, but I have to back it anyway.

Maru -1.5 v Solar @ +120 with BetOnline
Trap ml v Dream @ -160
Trap -1.5 v Dream @ +180

MATCH BETS – July 21

Zest and Parting both won their series over Armani, but neither could deliver on the excellent 2-0 price. Same thing occured with Serral against Clem with a market number of 40% when I took it closing at an implied probability of 50%. Such a ridiculous swing, but we know Clem is playing well at the moment too. I backed Rogue, one of the best Zerg players in the world, in his three series today against players all of a lesser pedigree but in better form through most of 2020. Funny enough the one victory he did pick up was the final match of the day when he had the lowest probability to do so. In Zest’s one loss today he wasn’t able to take a game off Serral

Tomorrow we have the final day of Group C. Armani is unsurprisingly a big dog in all his series, but the one number which stood out most was Zest’s price against Clem. I get it, kinda, the French Terran is having the best couple months of his career. He looked excellent in the European side of Dreamhack, but this still needs to be put into the context of what does being the third-best foreigner in the world mean. It’s kind of like the Reynor/Innovation price from Saturday. Even though it came in, going through it, Reynor was not deserving of that number by close. Clem has the ability to beat anyone in the world on a good day, but so does Zest. The Protoss is not so far removed from his own tournament runs. You can make arguments for Clem being in the better form, which I do not disagree with.

Zest ml v Clem @ +125 with BetOnline
Serral -1.5 v Armani @ -200 [1.5%]
Rogue -1.5 v Armani @ +120
Clem -1.5 v Armani @ -120
Parting ml v Zest @ 160
Clem ml v Parting @ -115
Rogue +1.5 v Serral @ -125
Rogue ml v Serral @ 250
Serral -1.5 v Parting @ +120
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MATCH BETS – July 20

Well that completes an incredibly disappointing run at the Dreamhack tournament. With either Douyu Cup and GSL running almost daily I’ll include those and look to start moving back in the right direction. I’ve only posted the one day of GSL and Douyu this past week, both are included in the above table. It is nice to see some markets up for both of these already this week. Since we’ll be moving back and forth, the record is the year-to-date.

The Douyu side of things is just at the halfway point of the group stage. Similarly to Dreamhack we have a mix of Koreans and foreigners. Many of the same players we viewed this past week are competing. Tomorrow Group C begins with three zerg including recent Dreamhack champ, Serral. There are six players in each group and the C qualifications will run on Monday and Tuesday with Group D a week from now.

While most of the best in the world are in this tournament, Group C is undoubtedly the most stacked. Serral stands out at the top, and Armani at the bottom, however seeing any three of these six making it out or being eliminated would not be that much of a surprise. Lines will go offline at 7am eastern usually.

Parting -1.5 v Armani @ +100
Zest -1.5 v Armani @ +120
Rogue ml v Clem @ +125
Rogue ml v Parting @ -135
Rogue ml v Zest @ -105
Serral -1.5 v Clem @ +150
Zest +1.5 v Serral @ +100
Zest ml v Serral @ +330
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PLEASE READ:
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

MATCH BETS – July 19

Reynor picked up an incredible reverse sweep victory today taking down Innovation after an 0-2 hole. We have seen him play supreme in the mid and late games. His ability to ensure his worker count remains not just high, but ahead of his opposition has allowed him to comeback in many games and rebuild his army in a rapid fashion.

Heromarine had opportunities to win at least one if not two more games. As a buddy said, he just continues to get in his own head and indecisiveness is what costs him in many games. Trap now plays Reynor in the semi-finals – a PvZ match that the Protoss has struggled mightily with.

In the other side we had a clean-looking Serral take a relatively easy win against Ty. Since winning GSL Season 1 this year, the Terran has really dropped off – at least against the other best in the world. Terran has had some nice balancing changes so it does seem a bit bizarre. Serral might not always play his best, but the opposition almost always has to be playing their best to take maps let alone series against him.

Cure took a very tight 5-mapper over Maru. These two have had a lot of back and forth in their series, as is not uncommon in mirror matches between high level opponents. Still thought the Maru line should have been a bit shorter, and he quite honestly had chances in four of the five maps. So Cure will now meet Serral in the other half of the bracket. The grand finals will follow later in the day on Sunday.

-trap +2.5 @ -200 [1.5%] BetOnline
-trap +1.5 @ +180
-trap ml @ +400
-cure +1.5 @ -120
-cure ml @ +220

MATCH BETS – July 18

The group stage of the Dreamhack Summer closed out on Friday and we now have our eight finalists; Heromarine, Trap, Reynor, Innovation, Serral, Ty, Cure, and Maru. That is a surprising five Terrans comprising the playoff bracket. A huge change from what has largely been Protoss and Zerg domination for the past year.

Reynor played a dominant game one against Special, before needing some heroics in game two. Special killed 30 or 40 drones before we eclipsed the 10 minute mark but after each hold, the Italian Zerg did a brilliant job rebuilding his workers and ensuring that his economy would not suffer the longer the game went on. The turning point was a beautiful surround on Special’s entire battle-mech army in which all the cyclones and battlecruisers were destroyed leaving the Terran with half the army supply. Reynor did a brilliant job stepping on the throat to close the game out swiftly.

In the Astrea versus Maru series, the underdog just couldn’t deal with the multi-pronged aggression coming from the Terran. Astrea did not play poorly in that opening game, however he continued to be frustrated by medivac drops in his mineral lines at all three bases. It just meant that Maru continued to get further and further ahead and was a death by papercuts. In game two Astrea had a much better start, was not behind in the same way. However his downfall was a terribly timed push out of his base right as Maru was coming up the ramp. His small army was divided, away from the shield batteries and destroyed in one fell swoop.

I posted some GSL for Saturday as we round out the final group stage before moving onto playoffs. While Dark is always a contender to win any title, one of the best Zergs in the world, and a solid head-to-head against Innovation, his most recent form both against this Terran and other players should hold him as a marginal dog.

innovation ml v dark @ -105 [1.5%]
bunny +1.5 v parting @ -150 [1.5%]
bunny ml v parting @ +220 with BetOnline


MATCH BETS – July 17

I had a question from a kid today regarding some Starcraft wagers. While he was entirely ignorant and working with the ever lovable ‘look at my knowledge after the match is done’ angle, the question is a good one, though basic. It is one that I have been asked numerous times, and more than once in Starcraft…but let’s allow the kid to go on thinking his idea is original and does not hold the obvious negative value he wishes to ignore.

When I was posting NHL picks I worked in volume with almost every major market leading to bets frequently in the same game. Sometimes this looked like a team moneyline and puckline (NHL equivalent of the MLB runline), while others were a team total and full game total, and others a team moneyline and full game total. It was this last example that I was asked most frequently why I would take the team moneyline and full game total but not the team total. So as an example the New York Rangers are -110 against the Habs, with a team total of 2.5 at -120 and a full game total of 5.5 at -110. With extremely rare exception, the team total to the o2.5 is always shorter than a teams moneyline price. The natural question is why take the moneyline and game total instead of the over 2.5 goals.

This is a real situation, is complex to figure out for profitability, but simple logically. Here are the possible categories of outcomes:

Rangers win 6-0 = W/o2.5/o5.5
Rangers win 3-0 = W/o2.5/u5.5
Rangers win 1-0 = W/u2.5/u5.5
Canadiens win 1-0 = L/u2.5/u5.5
Canadiens win 3-0 = L/u2.5/u5.5
Canadiens win 6-0 = L/u2.5/o5.5

Pretend that each of these scores has ~16% true probability. The Rangers moneyline would be 48%, their o2.5 would be 32%, and the o5.5 also 32%. Now factor in the pricing. The worst possible play I could make in this situation would be the o2.5 due to the pricing. Now this is a manipulated scenario with an entirely fictitious range of outcomes. I am using it as an illustration for why in some situations I would not take the o2.5 even though logically I would need the Rangers to score 3 to hit both the moneyline and the over 5.5. The value on the moneyline and game total markets make a 1% stake towards each more valuable than a 3% exposure which uses the team total, or a similar stake of 2% for the team total. Now I played upwards of 400 team totals when the hockey season stopped so there is undoubtedly a huge quantity of spots in which the above illustration does not apply.

Alright let’s bring it back to Starcraft picks now. The question I received was ‘instead of taking the underdog +1.5 for a best-of-three, why not take the over 2.5’. Seems logical right? Similarly to tennis, u2.5’s always hit with significantly higher frequency than o2.5’s at all odds ranges. The linesmakers, individuals whom are specialists in probability, are setting these totals based upon actual data, not a fictitious model that says o2.5 has a greater likelihood because a dog couldn’t 2-0. The under 2.5 prices are always shorter than the favorite 2-0…why? Think really hard – looking at you esports niblet.

Let’s take Pinnacle’s -1.5 lines in contrast to the under 2.5’s for tomorrow’s matches. These are implied probabilities.

Reynor -1.5 @ -180 = 64%
Reynor u2.5 @ -244 = 70%
Maru -1.5 @ -257 = 71%
Maru u2.5 @ -319 = 76%
Cure -1.5 @ -250 = 71%
Cure u2.5 @ -305 = 75%
Trap -1.5 @ +185 = 35%
Trap u2.5 @ -131 = 56%

Just based on these four examples you can tell two things – the under is expected to occur more frequently than the favorite is to 2-0 in every match (and this will always be the case). Second we might assume a lower likelihood of probability for a 2-0 as the moneylines move closer to 50/50. Reminder this is 56% in a 58/42 match with margins removed.

Peanut brain’s point was that his ‘model’ showed the greatest likelihood of 2-1 instead of a 2-0…which is laughable. This is never the case. If his model shows such an outcome for a 70% favorite then the greatest value is always going to be on the dog, in this case Heromarine meaning every single map. UNLESS YOU ARE BETTING BASED UPON MAP POOL, which I asked him about and he flapped about with no answer.

Esports niblet refused to post his percentages, of course, and when queried as to his probabilities by map (the only way his approach holds merit) the ignoramus didn’t respond. For those familiar with betting CS you will be used to utilizing team map strength as a way of finding an edge. Similarly in Dota betting based on draft. If you aren’t using these factors then saying the o2.5 holds more value is complete fabrication. I’ve never heard of a CSGO bettor of which I know hundreds suggesting an o2.5 would be value regardless of what maps came up. Unsurprisingly this why Starcraft nooblet decided to make his comment after the match was over.

To ice this pleb’s argument compare the pricing of all dogs for the 2-0 to the 2-1 on tomorrow’s card. It is one thing to say a singular match-up plays out differently, but you better have some technical backup to support that assertion based upon things that are differentiated between the two maps…again, maps/draft etc. Otherwise you are merely rolling the dice that one player won’t 2-0 and calling it ‘value’. Resorting to ad hominem because you are one of the multitude of hindsight degenerates whom occupy #GamblingTwitter and have no logical explanation for your approach other than ‘bigger number = more value’ will earn your fragile ego a swift mute every time.

Has 2-0 = 9%
Has 2-1 = 6%
Special 2-0 = 11%
Special 2-1 = 11%
Astrea 2-0 = 9%
Astrea 2-1 = 6%
Clem 2-0 = 23%
Clem 2-1 = 23%

Interesting.

Dreamhack Finals

-Reynor -1.5 v Special @ -164 [2%]
-Astrea +1.5 v Maru @ +200
-Astrea ml v Maru @ +650 with BetOnline
-Clem ml v Trap @ +125

MATCH BETS – July 16

The final stage of the Dreamhack Summer tournament has arrived, and hopefully a change in the winds of variance! My worst esports day of the year sandwiched between two other almost-blanks made for a dreadful three days last weekend.

Today did not begin very well in terms of preparedness, which I normally pride myself on. I misread both the format and the schedule. Leading to the missed opportunity on Time’s spread and moneyline. So the format for groups is GSL, which is the bane of my current Starcraft existence. As we saw in the actual GSL tournament books just are not offering the decider matches. Instead of having five matches to bet, including re-matches in many cases, we only get two. Think if you were only able to bet 40% of one of the biggest tennis tournaments of the year, say the US Open…would be incredibly frustrating. Aannnnd right as I said that, Time takes the opening series against TY @ +450…boohoo.

The defense of both Innovation and Parting against the foreigners was impeccable. Better pros likely would have closed those significant advantages in two of those games however, given the price and correlated skill discrepancy, games playing out this way could be somewhat expected. Neeb took a poor engagement against Innovation’s small skirmish force. He broke his army into segments and took probably 3-4x the damage he should have. When Inno brought his actual force up to the other side of the map Neeb was out of position and without a sizable army. Thankfully Heromarine did not choke in game two and held on through some early Parting shenanigans for a nice lead headed into the mid-game.

I’ll have tomorrow’s opening four matches posted in far better timing. The playoffs should offer all the matches given how spread out the start times are, but you never know!

-Neeb +1.5 v Innovation @ -125 with BetOnline
-Neeb ml v Innovation @ +250
-Heromarine +1.5 v Parting @ -160
-Heromarine ml v Parting @ +200

MATCH BETS – July 13

The three series once more did not go my way yesterday with Reynor beasting the European side and beating both Clem and Serral by a cumulative score of 7-2. I had taken him in the best-of-five two days prior for a better price, but unfortunately in the series in which he had a 1-0 disadvantage heading in he won 4/5 games against the number one European to win the regional bracket.

The season finals worldwide begin on July 16th, so we have a bit of reprieve before getting socked again. Today I worked on the Douyo Cup which is another tournament going on at the moment. It is currently in the midst of Group B, but will be running until the middle of August. The tournament meets my requirements, but until today only a couple of places had lines up and only the winners market.

I’ll be posting for this one as often as we have proper options for the next month, but unfortunately with Starcraft it seems to have low priority. Hopefully with all the handle I turned over to the books this weekend they’ll make more of an effort…

Esports Picks:

Scarlett +1.5 v Ty @ +140 with BetOnline
Scarlett ml v Ty @ +450
Scarlett +1.5 v Uthermal @ -175
Scarlett ml v Uthermal @ +170
Ty ml v Soo @ +110
Solar ml v Soo @ +100
Uthermal +1.5 v Solar @ -110
Uthermal ml v Solar @ +300
Uthermal +1.5 v Ty @ -110
Uthermal ml v Ty @ +300
Bly +1.5 v Uthermal @ -110
Bly +1.5 v Uthermal @ +300

MATCH BETS – July 12

Saturday’s Dreamhack Starcraft went as poorly as possibly – was the worst day of the year for not only this title but all esports combined. I haven’t had an entire tournament show such staggering losses as this one day. Every favorite with the exception of Scarlett won and covered just about every spread…but not Scarlett, the one favorite I was on. This brings the Starcraft returns into the red for the first time since March at about -11u. Any market that my average price is in that +200/+300 range is going to be prone to a fluctuation like this due to the high volume. The shitty part is when it happens in short succession.

That’s enough about that. Today we have the lower-bracket finals and grand finals in both Europe and North America. In EU we have undoubtedly the top three performing players in this region both at this tournament and in 2020; Serral (Z), Reynor (Z), and Clem (T). Serral is awaiting the winner of these two in the best-of-seven finals with a one map advantage. Both Clem and Reynor played out of their minds over the past couple days against the Night King but both were dealt 3-2 losses.

In North America Neeb (P) awaits the winner of Future (T) and Astrea (P). I stick by my numbers on the Scarlett series – and if you translate the Future line to Astrea today it would be difficult to postulate an argument for the Terran and Queen of the Swarm being similarly priced against the talented protoss. It would take significant rationality for how the players matched-up, which isn’t really true either.

Esports Picks:

Clem +1.5 v Reynor @ -150 [2%]
Clem ml v Reynor @ +150 [1.5%] BetOnline

MATCH BETS – July 11

Yesterday was tough day for the Starcraft. Namshar was the one series that was decimated, Scarlett just crushed him in all three games. However Vanya, Heromarine, Reynor, and Nina were all so incredibly tight with opportunities to bring home some further returns. Vanya was beaten in games three and four by Mana‘s strong adept pushes into the mid game. A case of ‘fool me twice, shame on me.’

Heromarine, similarly to Showtime the day prior, seemed to slip up when going to close I believe it was game three. Ptitdrogo has been a frustrating player to go against at the Dreamhack tournament. In the case of Nina, she really struggled with her micro in a couple of those games. As a lesser quality player than Astrea that was bound to happen I suppose.

Series of the day was Reynor and Serral. This was all about brilliant mind games and preventing the opponent from knowing what was coming. Serral edged it out once more in a 3-2 decision.

Today we have three playoff matches from the European side and two from North America. There are two, perhaps, unexpected players still fighting in Europe, while the four players who topped the groups in NA are the only ones remaining.

Esports Picks:

Mana +2.5 v Reynore @ -150 [2%]
Mana +1.5 v Reynore @ +250
Mana ml v Reynore @ +620 with BetOnline

MATCH BETS – July 10

Had a chuckle this morning seeing Vanya lines back on Pinnacle. For those unaware, on his last two matches, Pinnacle graded all wagers on the series as void based on their regulations. If you are familiar betting with this fantastic esports book you will know that they can be incredibly ambiguous about what leads to this occurring so it does lead to massive speculation about the cause. One thing is obviously clear – Ivan Chepurnov, aka Vanya, obviously has ties to the Russian mafia…maybe even to the Kremlin. Yes, this suspicious activity might go all the way to the top.

There are rumours that Vanya is the son of former KGB operative Valentine Zukov. I contacted Pinnacle about this and they sent me some evidence of Ivan’s dark past:

So now you have all the information on whether to proceed. As one of my partner’s commented, ‘would like a dog price on whether Vanya wagers are settled today’. I still have some work to do on the other four matches, two in Europe and two in North America. Those will be posted in about 60-90 minutes from this post. If you don’t hear from me again please call MI6.

Esports Picks:

Vanya +1.5 v Mana @ -115 [2%]
Vanya ml v Mana @ +190
Vanya -1.5 v Mana @ +350
Heromarine -1.5 v Ptitdrogo @ -135 [2%] BetOnline
Heromarine -2.5 v Ptitdrogo @ +220

MATCH BETS – July 9

Was not a great showing from Bly to open up the series against fellow Zerg, Vanya. In the first game, he tried some early aggression which was completely shutdown. He did a poor job scouting after this point which made him unaware that Vanya had prepped a strong game-ending push. On game two Bly attempted a cheese on his own map pick of Ever Dream. However, the micro of his drones was far inferior to the Russian and he never got his spine crawlers up in time, therefore, forcing the resignation.

While Bly might not be known for his late-game prowess, his aggression in all three games he lost was expected and countered perfectly from Vanya. While Lambo is the superior player to Bly, and of course the Russian, not to the extent of the current number but rather ~2%. That said, Lambo has been in a nice run of form so I can understand why the market might price him even shorter.

Another Starcraft tournament, another incomplete board. It looks like not a single sportsbook managed to have all the correct games for today. I don’t have an explanation for why this should happen so frequently, but hopefully, the other matches go up later in the day for everybody.

EDIT: Well I delayed long enough, and whaddaya know…some places actually posted a line with one hour before the first match started! Sarcasm aside, thank you. And also to all those who took part in our letter writing campaign over the last 24hrs.

Europe

Vanya +1.5 v Lambo @ +100 with BetOnline
Vanya ml v Lambo @ +220
Vanya -1.5 v Lambo @ +400
Showtime -1.5 v Ptitdrogo @ -180 [1.5%]
Showtime -2.5 v Ptitdrogo @ +200
Heromarine -1.5 v Marinelord @ -140
Heromarine -2.5 v Marinelord @ +220
Mana ml v Soul @ +100

North America

TLO +1.5 v Namshar @ +110
TLO ml v Namshar @ +250
TLO -1.5 v Namshar @ +500
Nina ml v Silky @ -170
Nina -1.5 v Silky @ +120
Nina -2.5 v Silky @ +350

MATCH BETS – July 8

All four favorites in the upper-bracket hammered home wins yesterday. We came out with +0.2 thanks to a dominant 3-0 sweep from Clem over Mana and an attempted reverse sweep from Showtime against the Night King. The four players who dropped their series move to round 2 of the lower-bracket, awaiting the winner of today’s Europe matches.

None of the players in the lower-bracket competing today stick out as real contenders for a run to the finals. The four that moved down, as well as the four still in the upper-bracket, do seem a cut above from the other eight but that does not mean they are not susceptible to dropping entire best-of-fives.

We open up the day with a ZvZ between Bly and Vanya. I couldn’t really understand why Bly’s price wasn’t shorter. Fantastic form, most especially in the mirror race matchup, both recently and long term. Dominant head-to-head against Vanya both over the years and in 2020. I’ve got Bly’s moneyline at 68% so have placed 2% here as well as 1% on the -1.5, and 1% on the -2.5 which is a touch under 30%. Vanya has beat Bly many times before, but not nearly in the frequency, nor recency, to suggest this is a 55/45 series.

The North American playoffs also begin today. Given the smaller field, there is an abbreviated bracket with four pros in each of the upper-bracket and lower-bracket. Scarlett and Neeb are expectedly short favorites. With time constraints being what they are today, will post those a little later on.

Esports Picks:

Bly ml v Vanya @ -155 [2%]
Bly -1.5 v Vanya @ +140 with BetOnline
Bly -2.5 v Vanya @ +390
Gerald +1.5 v Soul @ +110
Gerald ml v Soul @ +250
PtitDrogo -1.5 v SortOf @ -125
PtitDrogo -2.5 v Sortof @ +250
Marinelord +1.5 v Denver @ -160
Marinelord ml v Denver @ +120
Marinelord -1.5 v Denver @ +270

MATCH BETS – July 7

Today we begin the playoff stage of the Dreamhack Summer tournament in Europe. First up is the upper-bracket quarter-finals. The eight players here all finished top two in their respective groups. All eight had varying levels of dominance over the rest of the European field from a 5-2 series record and a 68% map win rate up to a perfect 7-0 with 93% of maps won.

Serral, the Night King (though the one whom could never be defeated by a little girl hiding in a tree because his scouting is flawless), is the one player who has separated himself from the pack since being the best player in the world for most of the past two years. However, he also practices the most against this field making it still a dangerous one for the talented Finn. Protoss is his ‘weakest’ race match-up, however, that is not to say it is a weakness. It is also the race he has played against the least this year in officials.

I would call Reynor’s number against 90% of European’s value, however, Heromarine has played the Italian Zerg incredibly well this year. I am taking a stab on the alt spread here though I understand a lot of books won’t offer. On that note, Starcraft betting can be incredibly difficult to find options for, consistently, and anything other than moneylines even more challenging. Again, just another reason to have your bankroll distributed at a number of shops.

Today there are just the four matches, however the lower-bracket begins tomorrow with eight more, as does the North American side with two. Starcraft often holds the seemingly lowest priority for most books so tomorrow’s entry will likely have to wait until 7-8am et as well…but at least we have some spreads!

Esports Picks:

Clem -1.5 v Mana @ -190 [2%]
Clem -2.5 v Mana @ +180
uThermal -1.5 v Lambo @ -110
uThermal -2.5 v Lambo @ +275
Heromarine +1.5 v Reynor @ +100
Heromarine ml v Reynor @ +200 with Bookmaker
Heromarine -1.5 v Reynor @ +400
Showtime +1.5 v Serral @ +200
Showtime ml v Serral @ +480 with BetOnline
Showtime v Serral o3.5 @ -150 [2%]