Esports  

DOTA ESL One Birmingham 2020: Daily Esports Picks

profile

Adam Boothe’s DOTA ESL One Birmingham Record (updated daily)

PicksWinsLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
240118122+15249.17%+12.81u

I have written a Guide to Dota2 Betting which I recommend to anyone not familiar with this title, genre, and those interested in eventually being able to find value in this game on their own…or just to decipher the gibberish spoken by the analysts on stream!

MATCH BETS – June 7

Grand finals day is here! In fantastic Dota fashion both are the best-of-five guaranteeing that the better team on the day wins the tournament. In the European match we once more have Secret, the current best team in the world. This will be their fifth bo5 in 2020, third online.

Secret have won four of their finals, three with a 3-0 score. They went 3-2 against EG on lan at the Dreamleague major, and were reverse swept by Nigma at Mad Moon after holding a 2-0 lead. This will be the sixth different opponent Secret have faced. I was on Alliance in their upper-bracket victory over Secret when they were priced at +600 for the best-of-three. Today we find them at a much smaller +300-+350 across the board. Is that justified?

Not really considering this is a best-of-five. Alliance have performed well at this tournament however their price to even get two maps, around 40%, is not appropriate. So once more I have backed the world #1.

Given how soon the match starts, I will post the North American wagers a little later in the day. It features a re-match of the upper-bracket final between the best two performers in their region throughout, Crazy and Quincy Crew.

Europe/CIS

  • Secret -1.5 v Alliance @ -200
  • Secret -2.5 v Alliance @ +190 [BetOnline]
  • Secret -10.5 v Alliance @ -115
  • Secret -10.5 v Alliance @ -115
  • Secret -10.5 v Alliance @ -105
  • Secret -9.5 v Alliance @ -105
  • Secret -8.5 v Alliance @ -115

MATCH BETS – June 6

Not on a fun run the last two days of the Birmingham tournament. There were some theatrics in the Nigma/Secret series. Nigma had a player who was delayed connecting to the servers and it resulted in a one map advantage to a team that certainly does not need a free maps.

In game two Nigma snowballed a Slark lineup to the fastest win I have seen so far this year. It is rare to see these types of games, let alone against the best team in the world, and forcing them to ‘GG’ before their tier two towers were taken. While game two is no indication they would have won the series overall, it definitely hinted that Kuroky’s crew had something more to show than their prior meeting. We won’t know for a while now!

After that series, we moved to Prodigy/Alliance where the CIS squad just got completely wiped once more by the ‘Swedes’. Neither game seemed remotely close after 15 minutes. While a questionable last pick Underlord and lane setup in game one could be partly at fault, game two the Death Prophet bot lane with the Nature’s Prophet mid did not look any better. Over the two games Prodigy took a single-tier two tower, Alliance were kind enough to close both games out in 30 minutes.

The EG/BA match was truly one of whichever team made fewer mistakes would win the game. How many times did Eternal Envy get picked off with no support in map three? At least twice at a critical point in the decider. While I would like to say Evil Geniuses really outplayed Business Associates, the truth is it was BA’s worst series of the tournament so far. Frustrating to reward the chalk in such fashion.

Sometimes it seems like ‘fading’ an incredibly hot team is like constantly banging your head against a wall. However, when you think about the pricing on their map spreads and series spreads our win threshold is significantly lower. I have placed 33 wagers against Secret going 10-23 for a loss of about 6.5 units. The ONE series I backed them was one of the two they lost against a 15:1 underdog 2-0.

So if you had been fading Secret blindly here at Birmingham you would be in profit by a healthy amount. This is what I mean when I talk about that lost opportunity on Unique. Given that they picked up two series victories after, if they had played Secret on last in the group stage and not on day two there is a likelihood we are on them and still back them at least at 9 or 10 to 1.

You might be thinking “well if I just blindly bet Secret -1.5 every match that is easy money”. Is it? Let’s average Secret’s 2-0 pricing at -250 for their nine series (not including Nigma today). That’s roughly an implied probability of 70% which has actually been lower than in five of their series, but for arguments sake, I am fine with putting it there.

Secret have covered the 2-0 in 7/9 series. At -250 that gives you 0.8 units profit. Being that slight bit positive is obviously nicer than a deficit of 6.5 units, but it is not as though Secret is untouchable, nor immensely profitable. A 13-minute loss to Nigma should give you all the confidence you need to know this team is not going to continue indefinitely.

Europe/CIS
-Prodigy +1.5 v Secret @ +130 [BetOnline]
-Prodigy ml v Secret @ +450
-Prodigy +13.5 v Secret @ -120
-Prodigy +13.5 v Secret @ -120

Americas
-Crazy ml v Evil Geniuses @ -135 [1.5%]
-Crazy -2.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -110
-Crazy -2.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -110
-Crazy -2.5 v Evil Geniuses @ +100

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Just want to make that clear based on some of the questions this week. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners. If your local only provides moneylines do not tail until you find a sportsbook for adults.

MATCH BETS – June 5

Three 2-0 results in today’s card. Just a classic two steps forward, then one back usual grind. Even though the Liquid/Nigma price was closest to a 50/50, it turned out to be the most one-sided series. Nigma far outplayed TL from the get-go, and could just work the map as they wanted. Their lead was never in doubt and they are far too experienced to toss such games away with all the advantages.

FlyToMoon had periods of time in both games where they were close with Secret, especially in that second game. However after successful engagements killing the Outworld Devourer several times, they never pressed their advantage even with the strongest hero on the map.

Their re-match against Secret can’t run any worse than their last meeting did! Unfortunately at this point the Nigma spread hasn’t reached the 10.5 I am looking for on all three maps. If I see it tomorrow will post it, but if you find em before me don’t hesitate!

Crazy looked to be the best team in the groups but only performed well for part of one map today. I wasn’t a huge fan of either draft from them, but they were undoubtedly outplayed for most of that series as the primary problem.

We have a much better price on Prodigy facing the one team that took a win off them in the groups. There’s too much value on the Dota they are playing to not give them another shot, though Alliance have been consistent for a couple months now.

Tomorrow Business Associates face North American gatekeepers, Evil Geniuses. Though at this tournament EG has been the worst of all the NA teams. So I will going against them again tomorrow. The winner of this match will face Crazy and Quincy Crew awaits the winner of that in the grand finals.

Europe/CIS
-Prodigy ml v Alliance @ -115[2%]
-Prodigy -2.5 v Alliance @ +100 [Heritage]
-Prodigy -2.5 v Alliance @ +100
-Prodigy -2.5 v Alliance @ -115
-Nigma +1.5 v Secret @ +100
-Nigma ml v Secret @ +400

Americas
-Business Associates ml v Evil Geniuses @ +120 [1.5%]
-Business Associates -0.5 v Evil Geniuses @ +100
-Business Associates -0.5 v Evil Geniuses @ +100
-Business Associates -0.5 v Evil Geniuses @ +100

MATCH BETS – June 4

Well the ‘scrappy’ Alliance was able to defeat the ‘indomitable’ Team Secret in a fantastic upset for us. This series had it all, even with a decider map that crashed mid-game and had to be restarted. As a couple of people commented on Twitter, which I certainly agree with, ‘it is hard to see Alliance getting a better shot than they had in the first game 3′. Yet, they did! Alliance gave Secret the Secret treatment and crushed them in that final one.

I was certainly surprised by Secret’s draft in that decider. The Phantom Assassin is not a hero they had shown very frequently to this point, and its strengths were never felt for maybe other than one engagement in this game. However Enigma had run perfectly seven other times this month. Well, to be frank, there are only four heroes which Secret have not won a game with this month, and 45 they have yet to lose with. I don’t envy FlyToMoon‘s position tomorrow!

In the other series Prodigy smacked Nigma around in the opener and it was looking like they were just going to far outclass Kuro’s crew. However as their improvement at Birmingham showed, they legitimately are playing better Dota and over the next game and a half outplayed the CIS boys. Until Phantom Lancer came online and Prodigy did an excellent job playing around him and ensuring that every team fight from then on would go their way.

So Secret losing twice in two days would certainly be like lightning striking twice in the same spot. However, the last time they did lose in the upper bracket of the playoffs (recall that memorable triple rapier game against OG eight weeks ago?), they were swiftly knocked out in the lower bracket by Vikin 2-0. ANNNND…who beat Vikin 2-0 only two days ago? FTM!

I am kidding, there is no way in hell I am using that flawed logic as my rationale here…but I am saying there’s a chance. FTM is playing better Dota here at Birmingham than Vikin was at Los Angeles, which is good because Secret isn’t…yep, I said it. Secret ran a perfect 7-0 in groups, but the actual metrics against the field it has dropped at Birmingham in contrast to LA. So there is a legitimate shot here to about 20% for this CIS squad of relative no-namers.

I am not surprised to see the market changing its mind so far over the Liquid/Nigma match. We were on Kuroky’s side in their group stage win over TL a few days ago. Since then Liquid have won their last two matches over HR and Navi, while Nigma have dropped both against the two best teams in attendance, Secret and Prodigy.

Europe/CIS

  • FlyToMoon +1.5 v Secret @ +160
  • FlyToMoon ml v Secret @ +640
  • FlyToMoon +11.5 v Secret @ -110
  • FlyToMoon +11.5 v Secret @ -110
  • FlyToMoon +11.5 v Secret @ -120
  • Liquid ml v Nigma @ +100 [BetOnline]
  • Liquid -1.5 v Nigma @ -110
  • Liquid -1.5 v Nigma @ -110
  • Liquid -1.5 v Nigma @ -110

Americas

  • Crazy ml v Quincy Crew @ +110 [1.5%]

MATCH BETS – June 3

I took a break from working on the CS yesterday to come to this piece and laugh/rant about that opening Vikin/FlyToMoon series. It concluded 2-0 and, in the words of the panel, Vikin ‘ had a bad day’. I’d say tossing a 10k gold lead within three minutes can probably be summed up like that!

Both games did not seem too lopsided before FlyToMoon and then Vikin suddenly had commanding leads and control of the respective maps. The difference here was one team played around their lead and did not take bad engagements forcing preemptive buybacks. The real puzzler to me was why the Ember Spirit decided to play so far from his team in that final fight. FTM looked to be pushing high ground but instead of taking a team fight Ember moved to the other side of the lane and was instantly killed with no buyback [post game press conferences when?].

The other elimination series today was the short favorite of Liquid facing the dangerous side Hellraisers. Similarly to the FTM match earlier, the first two games found each team heavily outplaying the other bringing us to the decider. On game three I agreed with the analysts, and most importantly PPD, in favoring the Hellraisers draft. We always know even in the direst outdrafts it still needs to be executed. And this is what happened.

Liquid just melted the map and seemed to be everywhere constantly. It began by defending their own mid tier one tower. They didn’t even win the fight, they just ensured that the early push that HR was going for expended all their key ultimates and had to back down. After that it was smooth sailing until an enormous mistake almost cost them the game. It could just be the fact that this Liquid/Alliance roster gained the reputation as a team that throws leads. And not just leads, but the biggest of leads. It happened frequently enough that is now a meme [like me working for Jerry Shoebox], however, for a brief moment looked like it may happen again.

Two members of Liquid returned to the base to defend it from a split push and barracks attempt. That’s all fine. However at the same time two of TL’s cores were alone at Hellraisers high ground. Thankfully a couple of successive pick-offs and loss of the Aegis did not amount to anything, but you never know! We were on the map spreads and even if they had lost that game three, with a 20 kill lead would have been likely to still cover.

Insania said later on that they accidentally selected the wrong ‘Void’ in reference to picking Faceless Void instead of Void Spirit during the drafting stage. Liquid bettors must love to hear that! It was likely a troll however wagers have been lost over smaller mistakes.

Tomorrow the upper-bracket matches will run. We have the indomitable Secret taking on scrappy Alliance still with FNG. On the other side the new kings of the CIS region who topped Group B face a resurgent Nigma. While Kuroky and co are the signature team to be incredibly streaky, and I have backed them in five of their seven group stage matches, those are not enough to put them near 50% against the incredible form of Prodigy for a couple months now.

Americas matches begin Thursday!

Europe/CIS

  • Alliance +1.5 v Secret @ +175
  • Alliance ml v Secret @ +600 [Heritage]
  • Alliance +12.5 v Secret @ -110
  • Alliance +12.5 v Secret @ -110
  • Alliance +11.5 v Secret @ -110
  • Prodigy ml v Nigma @ -135 [2%]
  • Prodigy -1.5 v Nigma @ -110
  • Prodigy -1.5 v Nigma @ -110
  • Prodigy -1.5 v Nigma @ -110

MATCH BETS – June 2

Today we begin the playoff portion of the Birmingham online Dota tournament. Four teams are in the upper-bracket beginning their series tomorrow, while today we look to the four teams in the lower bracket. There will be two matches per day until we reach the final three teams. The best-of-five grand finals against Secret will be played on June 7th… see what I did there. Too bad Unique is already eliminated or we might already have someone capable of stopping Puppey‘s crew.

The first lower-bracket best-of-three begins with a rematch of a group stage meeting at OGA Pit tournament; Vikin against Flytomoon. In that series FTM walked away with a 2-1 victory in three pretty lop-sided maps. While I do have AlWAYSWANNAFLY’s side favored to approximately 54%, it is significantly closer than the market pricing. There is value on Vikin’s kill spread at +5.5 and +6.5 on the first two maps, however, it is currently set at +2.5 at both Pinnacle and BetOnline for map3. Unfortunately best case scenario we probably only see a +3.5 if it gets to the decider map so it’s a pass.

In terms of their actual results in the group stage, Liquid and Hellraisers were not so different. While I did consider a play to the HR moneyline, their spread and series price are just a little shorter than they should be. They possess all the capabilities of the upset here today, but the value isn’t there to warrant the shots.

The North American playoffs will not begin until tomorrow, but we’ll continue grinding it out through to the best-of-five finals on June 7th as well. With much fewer matches running through the remainder, most books already have lines up ahead of time – don’t need to wait for me to get started on the preparation!

Europe/CIS

  • Vikin.gg ml v FlyToMoon @ +150 [1.5%]
  • Liquid -6.5 m1 v Hellraisers @ -120
  • Liquid -6.5 m2 v Hellraisers @ -120
  • Liquid -7.5 m3 v Hellraisers @ -115 [BetOnline]

MATCH BETS – May 31

So the final day of the Birmingham group stage has arrived! There are just three teams already eliminated (Gambit, OG, and Winstrike) and only two teams that have locked up their spots to the upper bracket of the playoffs (Nigma and Secret). Prodigy, and I am pretty sure the Ninjas, are guaranteed through to playoffs but we’ll see where the dust settles at the end of the day.

With an upset win in the North American region, Crazy has clinched first place and an upper-bracket berth. Quincy Crew is guaranteed to go through to playoffs though their match with Beastcoast still determines seeding. Evil Geniuses at 1-3 still have a chance to get in as they play 0-4 Thunder Predator. I almost entirely ignore all of the scenarios for my approach, but I know others like to use it so feel free to check out the tournament page for more information!

Same thing with the Nigma map 3 spread as the other day; will wait to see what is offered if we get there. I mentioned earlier this week that Unique held my lowest rating entering the tournament with Winstrike not far behind. However one has had excellent numbers for their pricing, while the other has continued to struggle. Unfortunately I still don’t have Unique favored here against Gambit, or I would be on their moneyline. In this scenario where they have performed above their norm for this tournament only, I have sold kills to get pricing more reflective in the short term. I very rarely do this as it resembles overreaction. However Gambit‘s numbers here at Birmingham are poor enough that I think it’s worth a shot!

Because I took the morning off to make the missus breakfast, running a little behind on the card today! Will have the rest of the Europe/CIS and North American portion up a little later this afternoon. The Europe playoffs begin in two days time, while the North American side will start in three days.

Europe/CIS

  • Nigma +1.5 v Secret @ +100
  • Nigma ml v Secret @ +290
  • Nigma +10.5 v Secret @ -120
  • Nigma +10.5 v Secret @ -120
  • Liquid -6.5 v Navi @ -120
  • Liquid -6.5 v Navi @ -120
  • Liquid -6.5 v Navi @ -120 [BetOnline]
  • Family Team +1.5 v Vikin @ -150
  • Family Team ml v Vikin @ +200
  • Unique -4.5 v Gambit @ +100
  • Unique -4.5 v Gambit @ +110
  • Unique -4.5 v Gambit @ +110

MATCH BETS – May 30th

Secret finally covered yesterday! Well they have obviously been doing a good job winning games, I am only referring to their kill handicap. Depending on the points you had been given, that was likely the first series that Secret covered. Even with their domination of Family Team yesterday their numbers are not nearly as flawless as what we saw down the stretch of the Gamers Without Borders and OGA Dota Pit tournaments playoff stages. Are they still the undisputed best in the world? Certainly, however their price tag has shortened while their performance has not improved in correlation to it.

For example two days ago we were on Vikin against them at +700 or so, a ~5% difference from their last meeting (which of course I was on when Secret lost). This is the game we play all day everyday! And we will do again with Natus Vincere today. Remember when we backed Secret in the grand finals at Gamers Without Borders? Here was what we took that morning againt Navi:

Now this was for a best-of-five of a charity tournament, but Secret was at a staggering -7.5, which you could still get on maps 4 and 5 two hours later. If you have not noticed, I rarely will put more than one unit on singular maps of any esport. This match was a unique one in that I had ten exposed on each of the five maps for the sheer reason that 7.5/8.5 was far too small. The proof is in the pudding as they say. No this is not a reference to the fact Secret covered on two of their three maps. The ‘proof’ that 7.5/8.5 was too small a number for the form Secret was in is that two weeks later we have a 14.5 across the board.

Let us work with the natural assumption that the spreads opened by the bookmaker are based on the fact they are supremely better at the math needed to set a good hook. Well, today I cannot even sell enough kills to reach that 7.5/8.5. A 10% shift in the series spread too is similarly reflected upon.

Europe/CIS
-Navi ml v Secret @ +850
-Navi +1.5 v Secret @ +200 [BetOnline]
-Navi +14.5 v Secret @ -110
-Navi +14.5 v Secret @ -110
-Navi +12.5 v Secret @ -110

-Vikin -10.5 v Unique @ -110
-Vikin -10.5 v Unique @ -110
-Vikin -9.5 v Unique @ -110

-Nigma ml v Liquid @ -110
-Family Team ml v Gambit @ +120 [2%]
-Family Team -1.5 v Gambit @ +100
-Family team -1.5 v Gambit @ +100
-Family team -1.5 v Gambit @ +100

-OG ml v Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -140 [1.5%]
-OG -1.5 v Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -115
-OG -1.5 v Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -115
-OG -1.5 v Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -115

-Prodigy -6.5 v Alliance @ -110
-Prodigy -6.5 v Alliance @ -110
-Prodigy -6.5 v Alliance @ -115

-FlyToMoon -12.5 v Winstrike @ -120
-FlyToMoon -12.5 v Winstrike @ -120
-FlyToMoon -12.5 v Winstrike @ -115

MATCH BETS – May 29

That was one fantastic day from the dotes (I am allowed to call it that when we get double digit returns)! We were profitable in six of the eight series hitting wins on two +300 dogs and two +200 dogs. Some wild swings over the past couple days but you should be used to the ride after the past couple months, or years for some of you, tailing my work. I’ll be more than pleased if we can double our returns in the second half of the group stage in the Birmingham tournament.

Today we have another eight match slate. The pricing disparity is getting a bit narrower…who would have thought there is less separating these teams than the day one numbers! A bad day is always still around the corner see please stay the course with our staking strategy.

The kill handicap on map three of Secret vs Aggressive Mode (Family Team) is not suitable so let us wait until Secret blows them out on one of the maps before grabbing. We are looking for a minimum of 14.5 at 54-55% here. I have really liked what we have seen from FlyToMoon this week but this number on Alliance is far too good. If Alliance have a lesser performance FTM can punish quite quickly.

OG continues to be the most overpriced team at the tournament. Any day they are capable of rolling over most of the field, but this is a highly competitive tourny and we have not witnessed true ‘OG’ to this point.

The series I am actually most concerned about covering is Liquid taking on Unique – pretty funny I think. Unique has not played poor Dota this week, and TL has been their usual inconsistent selves. While Unique was my lowest rated team coming in, with another upset or two it won’t take much at these numbers to look their way.

So I am riding with a few more favorites than I would typically enjoy, but it is what it is. Simply just the way the scheduling and pricing goes. I am going to post the North American portion tomorrow afternoon!

Europe/CIS
-Hellraisers ml vs Nip @ +130 [BetOnline]
-Natus Vincere -5.5 map1 vs Gambit @ -120
-Natus Vincere -5.5 map2 vs Gambit @ -110
-Natus Vincere -5.5 map2 vs Gambit @ -105
-Cyber Legacy +1.5 vs OG @ -115 [Bookmaker]
-Cyber Legacy ml vs OG @ +300
-Cyber Legacy +9.5 map1 vs OG @ -110
-Cyber Legacy +9.5 map2 vs OG @ -110
-Cyber Legacy +9.5 map3 vs OG @ -110

-Liquid -9.5 map1 vs Unique @ -120
-Liquid -9.5 map1 vs Unique @ -120
-Liquid -9.5 map1 vs Unique @ -110
-Alliance ml vs FlyToMoon @ -150 [2%]
-Alliance -2.5 map1 vs FlyToMoon @ -115
-Alliance -2.5 map2 vs FlyToMoon @ -115
-Alliance -2.5 map3 vs FlyToMoon @ -115

-VP.Prodigy -14.5 map1 vs Winstrike @ -110
-VP.Prodigy -14.5 map2 vs Winstrike @ -110
-VP.Prodigy -14.5 map3 vs Winstrike @ -110

-Aggressive Mode +1.5 vs Secret @ +200
-Aggressive Mode ml vs Secret @ +900
-Aggressive Mode/Family Time +15.5 map1 vs Secret @ -120
-Aggressive Mode/Family Time +15.5 map2 vs Secret @ -120

MATCH BETS – May 28

Yikes what a rough day that was from the Dota. I’ll admit the loss on Secret distracted me far more than the dropped wagers on any of the other series. It put all of the other big upsets you may have witnessed this month in moderation. My success in esports betting has largely been based around snagging those unrefined lines so when I am on a short favorite it takes a little more for me to move on.

Again, it is only two units, but it is the lost (potential) profit of the upsets that is frustrating. However, I will say that at open at 10 to 1 in favor of Secret, it is still the ‘right’ side against a team of Unique’s quality and performance entering. As I have mentioned time and again, when I take these big dogs it is not with the hope that the favorite has the worst series of their life or one player has ping issues or they get severely outdrafted. Well, I suppose any of those factors would be nice. Perhaps I should clarify that is not with the expectation of any of those things.

A buddy messaged me after the series saying that he was surprised I was on Secret. My response was ‘where they opened at with a 14 kill spread and only 10% offered on Unique I was very pleased to take those numbers’, and still am. I would have needed an 18.5 kill spread for the CIS squad here, though at their ~5% closing moneyline probability it certainly would have had my interest at least. This is not a closing line value rant, though it is a comment on how drastically the odds can sway within a 6hr time frame to find interest on both sides of a series. I do not think Secret played poorly, however it was not the performance they have made a name for themselves on through the past month. And here’s to hoping they drop a couple more series, this time against some other quality opponents! One interesting note – Puppey died more times in this series than he did through the entire OGA playoffs last weekend.

Alright now that I’ve got that off my chest let’s move on! We had a second consecutive day where none of the big prices came in. Gambit, Aggressive Mode (now named Family Team), and Cyber Legacy all had varying levels of closeness with their opposition but all fell short. Again it is much easier for me to stomach those losses though cumulatively more exposure than the above match and those of you who have been in the betting industry for a long time will understand why.

Moving to the Americas region Thunder Predator were absolutely smoked. That’s two series now where they really have not contested and I was not happy with the price in contrast to their performance numbers – just are not getting the right bang for our buck!

Europe/CIS

  • Aggressive Mode (Family Team) ml vs Natus Vincere @ +175 [Bookmaker]
  • VP Prodigy -7.5 m1 vs FlyToMoon @ -120
  • VP Prodigy -7.5 m2 vs FlyToMoon @ -120
  • VP Prodigy -7.5 m3 vs FlyToMoon @ -120
  • Nigma -8.5 m1 vs Unique @ -120
  • Nigma -8.5 m2 vs Unique @ -120
  • Nigma -8.5 m3 vs Unique @ -120
  • Cyber Legacy +1.5 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas @ +100
  • Cyber Legacy ml vs Ninjas in Pyjamas @ +300
  • Cyber Legacy +9.5 m1 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -115
  • Cyber Legacy +9.5 m2 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -115
  • Cyber Legacy +9.5 m3 vs Ninjas in Pyjamas @ -120
  • Hellraisers +1.5 vs OG @ -125
  • Hellraisers ml vs OG @ +300
  • Hellraisers +8.5 m1 vs OG @ -125
  • Hellraisers +8.5 m2 vs OG @ -125
  • Hellraisers +7.5 m3 vs OG @ -125
  • Vikin +1.5 vs Secret @ +175
  • Vikin ml vs Secret @ +700
  • Vikin +14.5 m1 vs Secret @ -120
  • Vikin +14.5 m2 vs Secret @ -120
  • Vikin +13.5 m3 vs Secret @ -120

NA/SA

  • Crazy +1.5 vs Evil Geniuses @ -160 [2%]
  • Crazy ml vs Evil Geniuses @ +200
  • Beastcoast +1.5 vs Business Associates @ -150 [BetOnline]
  • Beastcoast ml vs Business Associates @ +200

MATCH BETS – May 27

Well the great powers that be saw fit to snag my daily Dota wagers for ESL One Birmingham for the remainder of the tournament. So now you get to gloss over long-winded and rambling blocks of text relating to another video game.

Birmingham is the one tournament each spring which the lonely island of England is granted by ESL. Dota is not overly popular here, but it is nice of the biggest company in esports to think of us! If you haven’t been following my work in Dota, please check out the above guide. It will certainly answer some of your questions about what is going on in the server.

The online version of this tournament began on Sunday but is being ran in four regions; Europe and CIS, North and South America, China, and Southeast Asia. I’ll only be sharing my wagers for those first two but if you want literal around the clock Dota action, you’re welcome to take a stab at those other two as well.

An important thing to note, if you choose to dabble in particular regions, commit fully for the duration of the tournament. With the formats being round robins you want to have as many opportunities for what you deem your edge to play out.

You are more than welcome to pick and choose from what I am on but, unless you are familiar with Dota, it is better to stick entirely to one or two types of market. For example, you may choose to skip the kill handicaps or series moneylines etc.

Today we enter day four of the European/CIS round robin. Teams have been split into two groups of eight and there are 35 matches left to go over the next five days. Playoffs begin on June 2nd with teams 1-2 in each group going to the upper-bracket and teams 3-4 starting in the lower-bracket. In the NA/SA region the format is the same but with one group of six; top two still to the upper-bracket, next two to the lower-bracket, bottom two eliminated.

I will be trying to get these out to the public the night before the matches like we were doing earlier this week. Yesterday was a bit difficult as a couple of key sportsbooks did not have lines up until about 7/8 pm eastern and, being in the UK, I was already past the point of being fresh.

Europe/CIS

  • VP.Prodigy ml v OG @ -120 [1.5%]
  • Secret -14.5 m1 v Unique @ -120
  • Secret -14.5 m2 v Unique @ -120
  • Secret -15.5 m3 v Unique @ -110 [BetOnline]
  • Cyber Legacy +1.5 v Hellraisers @ -170 [2%]
  • Cyber Legacy ml v Hellraisers @ +200
  • Cyber Legacy +6.5 m1 v Hellraisers @ -120
  • Cyber Legacy +6.5 m2 v Hellraisers @ -120
  • Cyber Legacy +5.5 m3 v Hellraisers @ -125
  • Gambit +1.5 vs Nigma @ +120 [Heritage]
  • Gambit ml v Nigma @ +400 [Bookmaker]
  • Gambit +10.5 m1 v Nigma @ -115
  • Gambit +10.5 m2 v Nigma @ -115
  • Gambit +10.5 m3 v Nigma @ -115
  • Winstrike +1.5 v Alliance @ +175
  • Winstrike ml v Alliance @ +600
  • Winstrike +12.5 m1 v Alliance @ -120
  • Winstrike +12.5 m2 v Alliance @ -120
  • Winstrike +12.5 m3 v Alliance @ -120
  • Natus Vincere ml v Vikin.gg @ +150
  • Aggressive Mode +1.5 v Liquid @ +110
  • Aggressive Mode ml v Liquid @ +420
  • Aggressive Mode +10.5 m1 v Liquid @ -110
  • Aggressive Mode +10.5 m2 v Liquid @ -110
  • Aggressive Mode +10.5 m3 v Liquid @ -110

NA/SA

  • Thunder Predator -5.5 m1 v Business Associates @ -110
  • Thunder Predator -5.5 m2 v Business Associates @ -110
  • Thunder Predator -5.5 m3 v Business Associates @ -110
  • Crazy -7.5 m1 v Beastcoast @ -110
  • Crazy -7.5 m2 v Beastcoast @ -110
  • Crazy -7.5 m3 v Beastcoast @ -110