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OGA Dota PIT & Great American Rivalry: Daily Esports Bets

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OGA Dota PIT & Great American Rivalry: Daily Esports Bets


Adam’s Record (updated daily)

PicksWinLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
2341261021+12953.85%+30.86u

For those who would like to know more about DOTA betting including an introduction to the markets and some general tips, please read our Ultimate Guide to DOTA Betting.

MATCH BETS – Aug 4

Was a bit painful seeing Thunder Predator perform as they did against the lowly Infamous, a team only infamous this year for being crushed. They did pull out the 2-1 eventually however it was far from clean in those final two games of the series. In the 4Zoomers series with Beastcoast, it was not close from start to finish. There was a brief fight in both games when BC were able to get a great fight and take down the cores of Weaver and Terror Blade in each game however it was far too brief of instance and losing the subsequent fights ended the game rather quickly after.

The next match was a duel between the two winners, 4Zoomers and Thunder Predator. I backed the small favorites of 4Z and they won an entertaining three mapper against the best South American side. Today we have the lower-bracket finals between Crazy and 4Zoomers. Talent-wise there is not as much separating these teams as suggested by the line, however their overall performance through much of July and into the early part of August has me going with 4Z.

4zoomers -6.5 v crazy @ 1.8 with BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)
4zoomers -6.5 v crazy @ 1.9
4zoomers -6.5 v crazy @ 2.0

PLEASE READ:
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

MATCH BETS – Aug 3

There was some good returns on the first day of the Great American Rivalry. Crazy delivered a 2-0 with some unlikely comebacks in both. Through the early game, Thunder Predator was in a good position. In the first, they got multiple kills on Crazy’s Medusa, had most of the map, and then kinda just coasted. At the 15 minute mark, the Dusa had gone down three times, as had their Beastmaster. However, between 15-25 minutes Thunder Predator did not push their advantage. Their gold lead grew but it meant very little given the farm of Medusa. At 25 minutes Crazy was able to take several key fights to push back into the game.

At this point, they took several buildings from TP and this was important later on. In a very unique sequence, Crazy smoked likely to find a pickoff so they could go Rosh. However, the one player they spotted, the speedy Weaver, got away and joined his team for a sneaky Roshan kill. The problem was that they didn’t have the info the whole team was pushing bottom. So Crazy just walked into the undefended base and won the game before their team could even teleport back in time. On game two, Thunder Predator again had a significant lead through the early game. The critical part was that it took everything to kill Crazy’s Spectre and eventually just did not have an answer.

Quincy Crew took wins against 4Zoomers and Crazy last night to secure their berth to the grand finals. Today we visit the lower-bracket for three matches. All are best-of-three eliminations.

Thunder Predator -1.5 v Infamous @ -180 [2%]
4Zoomers -6.5 v Beastcoast @ +100 (Visit our BetOnline Review)
4Zoomers -6.5 v Beastcoast @ +100
4Zoomers -6.5 v Beastcoast @ -100
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MATCH BETS – Aug 2

It’s only been a few days without Dota but it certainly feels like a LOT longer than that. The last wagers we placed were on Alliance taking on OG followed by Nigma in the European/CIS division of the OGA Dota Pit event. The FNG led underdogs delivered a reverse sweep of their lower-bracket opponent before meeting Nigma in the best-of-five grand final. After two maps the Kuroky-less squad had nearly dispatch of Alliance in incredibly dominating fashion. Alliance was not playing poorly whatsoever and actually looked pretty good coming out of the laning phase. However, fight after fight kept going the way of Nigma. On game three, however, the tide changed and Alliance built back into the series with a 2-2 score and a considerable lead in the ace map. And that’s when Terror Blade happened. In the end, was very pleased to be on Alliance for their number.

Today we FINALLY begin the playoff stage of the Great American Rivalry tournament. This has been the worst formatted Dota tournament of the year, but at least the rest of it is rather painless; a two bracket system of best-of-thress followed by a best of five grand final. Standard. Wait, I spoke too soon. The upper-bracket final is actually being played today.

Crazy ml v Thunder Predator @ +130 (Visit our BetOnline Review)
Quincy Crew -8.5 v 4Zoomers @ -110
Quincy Crew -8.5 v 4Zoomers @ -110
Quincy Crew -8.5 v 4Zoomers @ -110

MATCH BETS – July 30

There are now three teams left in the OGA Dota Pit tournament. Alliance lost to Nigma in the upper-bracket final and will now play OG in the lower bracket final for a ticket to play Nigma in the grand final best-of-five. Both Alliance and OG picked up wins against Prodigy and Natus Vincere while losing to Nigma.

Alliance have played OG four times through the online period and each team has come away with two wins. This will be the third different roster however for the TI club during this time. Last week it was announced Ceb was coming back to the team and they would be removing Sumail. I am not sure I understand the pricing here whether this was the first game of the tournament or in reflection on each of their series numbers throughout the playoff bracket. Nice value on Alliance in both respects.

The best-of-five grand finals will be played after thhis series completes. I am very surprised by Nigma‘s performance with RMN this week. If they win the tournament it will be the biggest of his career, as a player, and come after he retired from professional play. Just esports things.

Alliance ml v OG @ +130 with BetOnline [1.5%]
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MATCH BETS – July 29

Alliance were once again dominant with a 2-0, however the second game lost by the hook in a 17-10 score. While they convincingly took down both Nip and Navi, their match against Nigma tomorrow is a different level of competition, even without captain Kuroky. That being said they should be the marginal favorites and if we get to see these two again in the final will take Alliance against Nigma at this number again in all likelihood.

The Ninjas were able to take a map off Prodigy before being the first team eliminated from the competition. Their form has seen some wild swings over the past five months, however, with a different player in the lineup it is hard to know how much preparation went into this tournament.

Flytomoon had the third-fastest win in professional play of all time today. There is clearly an asterisk here given that Vikin had to start the game three decider 4v5 due to an internet outage for one of their players. Some sportsbooks have the rule that if the series is resigned after a match begins than bets will run, while others such as Pinnacle have a small adjustment where if it is a ruling by admins or before a certain point in the game that it will be graded void. So be sure to check the rules offered by your books before you spend time disputing a result or equally before accepting one.

We return as well tomorrow to the Great American Rivalry however I will be passing on the remaining four matches of the group stage. Vira Lata Caramelo is playing in three of those series against teams that already know their position. It just could lead to a greater chance of trial drafts and loose play. If even Infinity or Midas were the team eliminated playing in those I would probably take a stab but deciding to pass due to the sheer pitiful play of this Brazilian squad (at this level).

Alliance ml v Nigma @ +105 with Heritage
Navi ml v Flytomoon @ +130
Prodigy +1.5 v OG @ -180 [2%]
Prodigy ml v OG @ +170
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MATCH BETS – July 28

Was a good day for the favorites as they picked up wins in four of five series in both leagues with a 2-0 score. The one dog that came in was on Natus Vincere over Prodigy also with a 2-0. I thought both Vikin and FlyToMoon had chances to take a map but the better pedigree of OG and Nigma shone through.

In the North American side of things, Business Associates had two very easy matchups against the lowliest of the low in this tournament. BA wasn’t able to cover on the first map as their midgame was incredibly sloppy, however, their better coordination did allow them to come back with a super farmed Phantom Lancer.

Tomorrow there are no matches in the Great American Rivalry tournament, we return with that on Wednesday. All four teams in OGA PIT are running. I am backing three of the favorites tomorrow with the exception of the Ninja’s playing with Crit. Again this can still be tricky with the long break from officials with these talented but fairly even fields.

Alliance -7.5 v Navi @ -115
Alliance -7.5 v Navi @ -115
Alliance -7.5 v Navi @ -105
Nip +1.5 v Prodigy @ -125 with BetOnline
Nip ml v Prodigy @ +275
Flytomoon ml v Vikin @ 1.8 [1.5%]
OG ml v Nigma @ -160
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MATCH BETS – July 27

In the lower-bracket final of CDA Aster got off to a hot start in the opening game with 18 kills against six in the first twenty minutes. The problem for them though is that it was not amounting to a significant networth lead nor map control. Invictus were allowed to farm at will and, with the better late game lineup though not overwhelmingly, they were never really out of the game. A true team fight didn’t occur until around 25 minutes and IG won two consecutive fights decisively to close out the map immediately.

A lot of people comment on how Faceless Void can’t really team fight unless he has his ultimate, chronosphere, up. Well what happens where one of the cores on the other team has an ultimate that pretty much counters chronosphere. WK’s second life means that even if you land the perfect chrono on him you won’t be able to kill him twice in that time. And if he is as farmed as Void then you’re gonna have to get the hell outta there immediately anyway. And this is the way it played out. At 26 minutes Void stuck Wraith King and Viper killed him off immediately. However even with the first death coming in the first second of the chrono they didn’t come close to killing him off a second time and a perfect echo slam and chrono were, while not wasted, basically useless. FV landed one more chrono in the final minute of the game and it amounted to absolutely nothing and an immediate gg.

The second game was far more contested for the first thirty minutes. Many small skirmishes going each team’s way until finally a critical aegis was picked up on IG’s Morphling. This basically eradicated a perfect black hole from Enigma as only Underlord died meanwhile a perfect echo slam devastated Aster’s lineup and they were all forced to use their remaining buybacks. So in the end just far better team fighting was the difference in the series.

Tomorrow we return to the long awaited European and CIS teams with the OGA Dota PIT tournament. It is not as drawn out as some of the Dota competitions we have had this year. This one will be just eight teams in a two-tier playoff bracket over four days. You should be familiar withh the entire field, though Cr1t will be playing for the Ninjas instead of Sonneiko, Kuroky is out with an arm injury, Prodigy have replaced Virtus Pro. and OG have swapped yet more players. As a whole this is the tightest most talented and competitive region in the world and tournament to tournament the degrees of performance are far more volatile among the entirety…well, except Secret, whom thankfully won’t be attending.

Flytomoon ml v Nigma @ +125 [2%]
Flytomoon +0.5 v Nigma @ +125
Flytomoon +0.5 v Nigma @ +125
Flytomoon +0.5 v Nigma @ +110
Natus Vincere +1.5 v Prodigy @ -150
Natus Vincere ml v Prodigy @ +200
Nip +1.5 v Alliance @ -150
Nip ml v Alliance @ +200 with BetOnline
Vikin.gg ml v OG @ +130

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MATCH BETS – July 26

Invictus and Ehome both trucked on as their playoff numbers continue to surge past their performance in CDA groups and the OGA PIT. Sylar’s group was never in doubt to win either game. Over this run through the upper-bracket Ehome has made every composition look very clean. It is very telling they have had the most heroes banned against them, but never chosen. The impression is that either teams are not aware of Ehome’s meta, or Ehome have prepared more strategies than the rest.

Invictus, to a lesser degree, has also been far improved from their last-place group stage finish. Today they ended a streak of six straight losses with a 2-14 map record against PSG.LGD. It could be the new patch leading to the likes of Aster, Invictus, and Ehome as the final three teams here. However, it is not as though the more talented teams did not have the resources or ability to adjust.

Ehome will play the winner of Invictus/Aster around 4 am eastern in the best-of-five grand final. We also resume the Great American Rivalry group stage with four matches later tomorrow afternoon.

Invictus ml v Aster @ -160 with Heritage [1.5%]
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MATCH BETS – July 25

Well the CDA was a good day for the underdogs, but only Aster was truly priced as one. They took a solid victory 2-0 at +200 over Vici in two long games. The first was a bit interesting as Aster just got pickoff again and again and gradually their lead grew over a 45 minute affair. Through that entire game, Vici only won a singular fight but were never ahead. Game two was a much more back and forth contest throughout. The difference in the end was some beautiful black holes from Xxs’ Engima.

After that it was incredibly off to see CDEC play so poorly, but it only takes one day with this format to see you eliminated from the tournament. And that’s what happened. Despite being the best performing team through the month of July, CDEC dropped their third consecutive series to Ehome this month. All three maps were entirely lopsided with our boys only get a single tower in games one and three, truly poor. However, it was even worse in that game three decider of that series against Invictus. I couldn’t believe the market number headed to the ace map. Invictus have been one of the worst-performing teams for their price through these two recent leagues but did enough in game two to get the win and then ran over CDEC in the laning stage of game three to roll to an easy victory.

The hilarious game of the day was the opener of the best-of-two between 4Zoomers and Quincy Crew. For 35 minutes it looked like a lot of Quincy games. Solid fundamentals, excellent rotations, map control, and farm…AND then it flipped. Yawar, the position one of QC, decided to upgrade to a rapier for no reason really. The game was firmly in their control, 4Zoomers had not won a single team fight all game. Quincy pushed into the base, took the midlane of barracks and towers, was about to end the game with all the pieces necessary to do so except perhaps they didn’t account for the buybacks on the Zoomers or they didn’t think it mattered but upon killing the Dusa twice in their base, retrieving the rapier, picking Yawar off again moments later on the dire side of the map and that beautiful 25k gold lead all but evaporated. There was a rapier now on Faceless Void, sure, but it was not as though the position was unrecoverable. However the impatience, likely due to some tilt, caused Quincy to lose a rather disjointed team fight leaving three of their players with no buyback and that was the game!

Vici ml v PSG. LGD @ -118 with Heritage 1.5%
Aster ml v Ehome @ +120
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MATCH BETS – July 24

Ehome continues to troll… or maybe it’s PSG.LGD. In that first game, LGD built a nice little KD lead, however, their kills were predominantly only on Ehome’s position four Tusk. Sure preventing one player from having a game is never a bad thing, but it is one example of how kills can be relatively meaningless in the grand scheme of things.

In a game that ended 22-19, 11 of those kills were against Tusk. That opener was still not looking bad for LGD; good map control and farm on four of their players. It began to go wrong when Ehome snuck a Roshan. A couple of minutes later, LGD smoke into the Ehome triangle, initiate onto three heroes, and… only kill Tusk.

The second life granted by the Aegis allowed Ehome to turn that fight 4v5. Shortly after LGD were caught sleeping as two of their cores were picked off completely separated from their team. PSG.LGD continued to take poor engagement, again and again, losing one or two players every time while only killing off the Tusk two or three more times. At the point at which they resigned they had not taken a single 5v5 team fight since the attack on the dire triangle. Very lackluster way to end the game.

Game two was different but kinda the same as well. Every time it looked like LGD were about to take a sizeable advantage they took a poor engagement. The hero of this game was Techies played by Xinq. This hero forces teams to be meticulous in their attack and especially their positioning in every fight. LGD were not this, and it allowed about four consecutive fights to go in favor of Ehome.

Tomorrow we continue with both upper-bracket matches and the loser of the Vici/Aster series playing Invictus in the lower-bracket around 6-7am eastern. There is also a third consecutive day of Great American Rivalry group stage.

Aster +1.5 @ -150 [1.5%]
Aster ml @ +200 BetOnline
CDEC ml @ -150 [2%]
CDEC -4.5 @ -105
CDEC -4.5 @ -105
CDEC -4.5 @ -105

PLEASE READ:
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

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MATCH BETS – July 23

We had a perfect little 3-0 from the CDA as Vici swept their series 2-0 covering both spreads and Aster also took a convincing win over Sparking Arrow Gaming. In that second game, SAG had a six-slotted Nature’s Prophet at 36 minutes. He was the most farmed by a considerable margin, but they got very little accomplished with that. NP is fine as a position one, however, he is very infrequently a position one that can solo against multiple opponents like a Medusa or Terror Blade for instance.

The game wasn’t looking too bad for Sparking at the 20-minute mark. However, Outworld Devourer had next to no impact on the game despite only dying once before 15 minutes. Watching the team fights play out, it took just two quality chronospheres from Faceless Void to end the game. And it was incredibly easy as the hammerhead just sliced through support and core alike as though butter. Warm butter mind you, not the refrigerated stuff that you can’t get through for like 20 minutes.

Again with the CDA matches tomorrow, same thing I mentioned yesterday. I get that this is an “anyone can beat anyone” type of league, but the pricing on these dogs just isn’t enticing for me. And by that I mean the fact Ehome, for example, has beat LGD before does not price them at ~40% to do so again. On that note, the head-to-head, if that’s important to you, is still heavily in LGD’s favor.

-PSG.LGD ml v EHOME @ -200
-PSG.LGD -7.5 v EHOME @ -110 BetOnline
-PSG.LGD -7.5 v EHOME @ +100
-PSG.LGD -7.5 v EHOME @ +100
-CDEC -4.5 v Royal Never Give Up @ -110
-CDEC -4.5 v Royal Never Give Up @ -110
-CDEC -4.5 v Royal Never Give Up @ -110

MATCH BETS – July 22

Well Quincy Crew allowed Thunder Predator one map, thankfully, but severely outplayed them in the team fights for most of the rest of it. The SA squad was not out-laned significantly, it was more so to do with the timings and coordination being off more so than we have seen from them against other opponents. You can just see the movement around the map, the positioning in fight after fight – QC can always play like this, but it is not as though the skill gap prevents the rest of the field from doing the same. It only takes them playing less perfectly to get another map or cover on the kill spread. So Quincy get the best-of-five victory and we conclude with a very nice return from that tournament.

Tomorrow the playoffs resume in China with two matches at 1 AM Eastern – Vici against Invictus and Aster against Sparking Arrow. I am on both favorites here what should be slightly shorter prices. We also resume the Rivalary tournament tomorrow with four matches. I’ll be posting those later in the day.

Vici -5.5 v Invictus @ -115
Vici -5.5 v Invictus @ -110
Vici -5.5 v Invictus @ -110
Aster ml v Sparking Arrow @ -140 with BetOnline

MATCH BETS – July 21

Quincy Crew once more made quick work of Business Associates. A 25 minute game followed up by an 18 minute is about as easy as it gets. It was not even a contest at any point in the series. Quincy outplayed BA in every single lane and just snowballed to a victory in both. If a team wins all three lanes and push their advantage they can close the game out far too frequently. Give a superior team this lead and it is basically gg from the 10 minute mark.

So Quincy now meets Thunder Predator in the best-of-five finals. They have played each other twice over the past three months with QC repeating dominant performances in all four maps of two 2-0 decisions. However it should be noted whichever side you take today, this is not the same Predator team as back then. Through the Great American Rivalry tournament and now OGA Dota PIT, we have seen significant improvement from the South Americans.

I am pretty sure Quincy has competed in every single best-of-five finals in the North American region since March – two 3-1 losses to Evil Geniuses, a 3—1 loss to 4Zoomers, a 3-0 victory over Crazy, followed by a 3-2 revenge series against 4Z. All said they have certainly been the most consistently good team in this COVID online phase.

Thunder Predator +2.5 v Quincy Crew @ -225 [2%]
Thunder Predator +1.5 v Quincy Crew @ +130
Thunder Predator ml v Quincy Crew @ +300 with BetOnline
Thunder Predator +9.5 v Quincy Crew @ -110
Thunder Predator +9.5 v Quincy Crew @ -110
Thunder Predator +9.5 v Quincy Crew @ -110
Thunder Predator +9.5 v Quincy Crew @ -110
Thunder Predator +9.5 v Quincy Crew @ -120

There is always the possibility of 10.5 appearing on the board for the same prices as the 9, but this about 3 kills from where it should be going on this past month’s kill data. Based on the eye-test the pricing kinda makes sense, but if QC isn’t able to snowball off the laning stage TP has been playing well enough in the mid and late game to put up a better showing than some of the lower-bracket teams have.

MATCH BETS – July 20

Been on a nice little run with the Dota in both the CDA league in China and the OGA PIT Americas this past week. We will resume with the Great American Rivalry matches at some point coming up, believe it is Tuesday or Wednesday.

Today we have a break from the domestic Chinese league, however the final two matches of OGA will be played. The first is a meeting in the lower-bracket between Business Associates and Quincy Crew. Since losing their opener of the tournament, when we grabbed Quincy for a nice upset by BeastCoast, Quincy have been running over the lower-bracket teams. While Crazy did take a map off of them on Sunday, it was the only close game in the series with QC disposing of the dogs rapidly thereafter.

Quincy has owned all the head-to-head meetings with Associates this year. BA took three of the eleven maps they’ve played and all three were far from straightforward. Thunder Predator have been on a solid rise since June. Going back a few months the difference is unbelievable. Will be interesting to see how that hold up against a likely Quincy Crew in a best-of-five.

Business Associates +1.5 @ -130 with Heritage
Business Associates ml @ +230

MATCH BETS – July 19

On Saturday we came ohhhhh so very close to the outright win with huge dog IG Vitality in not one but both series. That game three against LGD was especially tight. Sure they were down by 15 or 20 kills, but as I’ve mentioned before the kills and gold differential are rather meaningless when we get to the late game scenarios.

Vitality took a couple excellent engagements as we moved past the 35 minute mark. They were able to secure aegis and even picked off the Drow Ranger a couple of times. Around 40 minutes they decided to go for the throne instead of megas, which I actually liked. Against a superior team, ahead, in the final game of the season…why not put it all on the line. It didn’t end up paying off, but they were not out of it. The final stroke however was a poorly executed team fight on the top lane. Clockwerk initiated upon them, but without his team. Vitality killed him, Clock bought back and the ambush a little south of that was ready. Vitality was left with no buybacks and that one fight decided the game. They were never ahead in that game, but they definitely had an opportunity to close it out at +900, which would have been one of the bigger ones this year.

In the Americas side of things only one of the three matches cashed, but it turned out to be a relatively breakeven day when the dust settled. Quincy Crew ran over the opposition in both their series. Pinnacle had them sitting at -155 against 4Zoomers which was honestly a huge gift. We only need to reflect on where they closed against 4Z in that best-of-five in June to call that pricing value and I stand by that even where it ended up around -200/-250.

MATCH BETS – July 18

No statement summarizes the last Dota series of the day better:

Game one between 4Zoomers and Business Associates gets this title. A triple rapier game where both teams had chances to end it and a 20k gold swing both ways is rare indeed in professional games. These two played it out like a pug. 4Zoomers had a perfectly farmed six slotted Terror Blade however the cockiness of TB meant that he didn’t buy a black king bar until the 50 minute mark. This left him very susceptible to magical burst damage. To put this in perspective TB purchased a rapier before his BKB but dropped it almost immediately trying to push high ground. Fan favorite, Eternal Envy playing Clinkz, then purchased his own rapier to combine with the one dropped by the Terror Blade. That shot his net worth to highest on the board.

With their high damage output on Clinkz, Business Associates pushed down to Dire’s high ground and took two lanes of barracks. And once more this is where I doubt the decision making. In a 5v2, instead of taking the throne, BA decided to indecisively go for the megas. However, they didn’t really commit to it and lost an ugly fight shortly after with Clinkz dropping both rapiers isolated from his team.

Thankfully in the end Business Associates took games two and three, slightly less sloppy, but both teams were not playing clean Dota by any means. 4Zoomers are not eliminated, they just move to the lower bracket to face the winner of Midas Club and Quincy Crew.

Today we have three matches once more. Quincy and Crazy are very short favorites against the two South American sides. Given what we have seen from Infamous and Midas Club over the past month this is justifiable.

OGA PIT

Midas Club +1.5 v Quincy Crew @ +275Midas Club/Quincy Crew over46.5 @ -120
Midas Club ml v Quincy Crew @ +1000Infamous +1.5 v Crazy @ +100
Midas Club +20.5 v Quincy Crew @ +100 with BetOnlineInfamous ml v Crazy @ +380
Midas Club +20.5 v Quincy Crew @ +100Infamous +10.5 v Crazy @ +100
Midas Club +19.5 v Quincy Crew @ +100Infamous +10.5 v Crazy @ +100
Midas Club/Quincy Crew over45.5 @ -120Infamous +10.5 v Crazy @ -110
Midas Club/Quincy Crew over46.5 @ -120

MATCH BETS – July 17

Sirius started the day off dropping a 2-0 decision to Vici. The first game they might have had a chance to take, holding a 4k gold lead with solid farm on their carry, Morphling. However, around the 20-minute mark, Vici began to heavily outplay them in the team fights and Morph could not do enough despite only dying twice. Second game Vici was ahead the whole time, far more net worth from the get-go and it just took two team wipes between 25 and 30 minutes to end the game. Aster got the win in their three-mapper with Royal Never Give Up. In the decider, Aster just executed their Io + Gyro strat far superior to what actually didn’t seem like a terrible RNG lineup. Thanks to Io’s Relocate Gyrocopter was in on 19 of Aster’s 22 kills.

In the opening day of the OGA Americas playoff bracket, we got off to a good start closing on five of six trades. The most unexpected victory was BeastCoast’s 2-0 over the team I called the undisputed team to beat at OGA. Thankfully the SA squad offered just enough value that we were on them for such an upset – and probably their biggest one of the year. Quincy now moves to the lower-bracket to join Midas Club and Infamous. Tomorrow holds three more matches with the winner of Crazy and 4Zoomers playing Business Associates, and a South American derby between BeastCoast and Thunder Predator. I’ll get the NA stuff up later in the day when the limits go up.

Sparking Arrow +1.5 v Vici @ -190 with BetOnline
Sparking Arrow ml v Vici @ +180
RNG ml v EHOME @ +100

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MATCH BETS – July 16

Quiet day of Dota ahead as the Great American Rivalry tournament is taking almost a full week off. With a new patch dropping late Wednesday it is just as well, giving these teams some time to adjust. While ya might assume that leaves us with only the CDA until the 22nd, we actually have the OGA PIT turning up in the Americas region starting tomorrow. And thankfully some best-of-threes!

The patch changed a few minor things to items but adjusted a huge quantity of heroes. Some that received major alterations; Bloodseeker, Brewmaster, Centaur Warrunner, Clinkz, Dark Seer, Medusa, Monkey King, Razor, Sand King, Sven, Tiny, Underlord, and Zeus. However, there were so many to a vast majority. Almost 30 had their movement speed either nerfed or buffed. A general trend is heroes which seem to have too high a pick-rate or win-rate see some reduction in their abilities, while the opposite tends to appear for those which have fallen out of favor.

The OGA matches are beginning at noon eastern so I’ll post those a little later in the day. The NA side won’t have a group stage which cuts down on our opportunities but given the drawn-out nature of the other regional tournament, is fine by me. Evil Geniuses are once again sitting out, leaving Quincy Crew as the undisputed organization to beat.

CDA

Sirius +1.5 v Vici @ +175 with Bookmaker
Sirius ml v Vici @ +700
Aster ml v Royal Never Give Up @ +110

MATCH BETS – July 15

Invictus closed a pretty swift series against Royal Never Give Up on Tuesday. Two games both ending around the 30-minute mark in which IG never trailed, never even losing a tier two tower, and their cores having relatively free games from start to finish. This brings the head-to-head through the online season to 5-6 for RNG against Invictus in series.

Tomorrow Sparking Arrow plays a doubleheader against Aster and Invictus. SAG came into the OGA Pit tournament as favorites in most of their opening matches until a brief losing streak set their number straight. They were moderately short against both teams they face tomorrow, teams which ultimately beat them in the prior match.

We also resume the Rivalry tournament tomorrow night with four best-of-twos. Two of the series feature those 90% favorites that we love so much. I’ve skipped the other two matches given the only real options are a draw or -1.5. The two-way moneyline just isn’t enticing.

CDA

Sparking Arrow ml v Aster @ +100
Sparking Arrow ml v Invictus @ +130 with BetOnline

Rivalry

Quincy Crew -19.5 v Vira Lata Caramelo @ +100
Quincy Crew -19.5 v Vira Lata Caramelo @ +110
Infinity +1.5 v Business Associates @ +275
Infinity +15.5 v Business Associates @ +100
Infinity +15.5 v Business Associates @ +100

MATCH BETS – July 14

For the first time in awhile we had a genuine Dota base race. Game one of the Infamous versus Thunder Predator series, the incredibly short favorites of TP absolutely robbed the game at the very end. Infamous played a fantastic game from start to finish…well, almost finish. Thunder Predator made the only play they could to win it – a last-ditch effort to teleport bottom and take the ancient of the undefended base. At the same time, two Thunder Predator players were playing distraction on the Dire side against a full Infamous roster. And it worked!

So that was an unfortunate way to lose on such a big underdog given how rare games actually end in such fashion. Contrarily Beastcoast robbed Midas of potentially winning not only one, but both games. They trailed by a large margin until it got to the late stages and it was only through superior team fighting that they pulled out the 2-0.

The final week of CDA season two begins today. There is only one match on Monday, but will be two for the rest of the week. Playoffs begin July 22nd through until the 26th. At this point, the only team eliminated is IG Vitality. Ehome and Invictus only need to win one of their remaining series to secure a playoff spot. Considering that eight of the ten teams go through, and Ehome has two matches while Invictus has three, this shouldn’t be too difficult.

Royal Never Give Up ml v Invictus @ -110 with Bookmaker

MATCH BETS – July 12

Ehome crushed recent OGA PIT best-of-five winners, CDEC, 2-0. Neither game was close outside a brief lead for CDEC in the first 10 minutes of the second. Ehome’s Nature’s Prophet and Alchemist had entirely free games in the opener not dying a single time, racking up 11 kills, and 21 assists. When a team has taken two barracks at 22 minutes the game is undoubtedly over. Moving into the second game we did see Ehome nearly blow a 15k gold lead at the 35-minute mark before team wiping CDEC twice to close out the series.

In the other series, Royal Never Give Up were felled in a close contest with Vici. I should clarify and that the series was a close 2-1 score, but for all three games the team that won clearly out-executed their composition. Both games that RNG lost they tried running Anti-Mage. Monet did get his farm in both, but the rest of the team was just so far behind that AM couldn’t do enough in every team fight.

I have taken shots on Ehome again today, this time against Vici. Shorter price, still value. The other series is big dog Sirius going up against RNG. I mentioned in a prior piece that Sirius is one of two teams a cut below most of the rest of the field. That doesn’t mean they cannot take games or a series, however. I’ll post the American Rivalry tournament later in the day!

CDA

Ehome +1.5 v Vici @ -170 [2%]
Ehome ml v Vici @ +175
Sirius +1.5 v Royal Never Give Up @ +120
Sirius ml v Royal Never Give Up @ +400

MATCH BETS – July 11

Woke up this morning just in time to witness CDEC come from behind 0-2 and close the final three games for a 3-2 victory. In those three the teamplay was not even comparable. Vici had solid drafts, incredibly poor execution due to sloppy engagements again and again. CDEC made relatively even games look entirely lopsided. This was the Vici we witnessed in the group stage of this event.

Game one CDEC did not ban Terror Blade or Anti-Mage, Vici picks TB and wins. Game two CDEC ban Terror Blade, don’t ban Anti-Mage, Vici wins. Game three CDEC ban both Terror Blade and Anti-Mage, CDEC wins. Game four CDEC ban both Terror Blade and Anti-Mage, CDEC wins. It was game five that broke the pattern – CDEC allowed through both Terror Blade and Anti-Mage. Vici didn’t hesitate and first-picked TB. The problem with this is it shows your hand right off the bat. CDEC can then feel reasonably comfortable picking a draft to counter what they know will a position one Eurus Terror Blade.

The American Rivalry tournament was full of unexpected results. Crazy played the best series we might have seen so far with Hfn, since Skiter left. It was certainly better than what 4Zoomers brought to their series with BeastCoast. I think the gap between series could be feeding into this. After Sunday’s set of matches we will be at the halfway point of the group stage.

Ehome +1.5 v CDEC @ -150 [1.5%]
Ehome ml v CDEC @ +200 with BetOnline
Royal Never Give Up ml v Vici @ +135

MATCH BETS – July 10

Game of the day and the only one I actually watched, making the selection easy, was the decider of PSG.LGD and Royal Never Give Up. I mentioned yesterday that the Chinese region was selecting a plethora of Anti-Mage and Terror Blade’s this week. These are super greedy carries based on the amount of farm they need to get to a level that allows them to take over the game. However, once they are there every team will be in a good position to at least contest for the remainder.

In many of the games we had witnessed this week, and this is how it usually goes in Dota, once AM is ‘online’ he is your win condition. Well, RNG had Monet get to that point where he was undoubtedly the strongest hero on the map. However, facing him was not a single carry, but also an equally farmed, equally dangerous duel carry of both the Troll Warlord and Slark. The real key to the victory was Eleven’s Batrider. When he finally started keying in on RNG’s save (Oracle) for their super carry, the game gradually began to move in their favor. It was entirely a grind for LGD. At the 30 minute mark, AM had not died once and had four kills. Meanwhile, Troll and Slark had died seven times between the two of them to that point.

Between the 30 and 40 minute mark, LGD managed to kill Oracle four times, three of which were followed up with the assassination of the Anti-Mage. Interestingly it still was not convincing enough. A blink into the Roshan pit where LGD stole all the items from RNG’s grasp was the true final nail in the coffin. They had the better buyback status and a less top-heavy composition with which there were too man things for the AM to take care of. When he was dead there was hardly any fight left for the RNG side.

IG.Vitality and Team Sirius battle tomorrow. They make up half of the teams that were promoted into the CDA however are far behind the other two – CDEC and Sparking Arrow Gaming. While Sirius does have a singular series victory and one additional game they took off Invictus, they are not 70% against the other bottom feeder. Sirius took a 2-1 victory against them two weeks ago and has won three of four this year however far from blowouts or indication that this match-up is anything more than a 60/40 at most.

Grand finals day for the Chinese portion of the OGA PIT tournament. Won’t be long before we begin the Americas and Europe regions as well. Rivalry also resumes their Div 1 group stage tomorrow with four matches.

OGA PIT

CDEC ml v Vici @ +125
CDEC +1.5 v Vici @ -180 [2%]
CDEC -0.5 v Vici @ +100
CDEC -0.5 v Vici @ +100
CDEC -0.5 v Vici @ +100
CDEC -0.5 v Vici @ +100
CDEC -0.5 v Vici @ +100

CDA

IG.Vitality +1.5 v Sirius @ -160 [2%]
IG.Vitality ml v Sirius @ +200 [1.5%] with BetOnline
EHOME ml v Sparking Arrow @ -150 [1.5%]

Rivalry

Thunder Predator -1.5 v Infinity @ -190 [2%]
Thunder Predator -11.5 v Infinity @ -120
Thunder Predator -11.5 v Infinity @ -120
Infamous +1.5 v Crazy @ -140 [1.5%]
Infamous ml (2-way) v Crazy @ +350
Infamous +7.5 v Crazy @ -120
Infamous +7.5 v Crazy @ -120
4Zoomers -1.5 v BeastCoast @ -140 [1.5%]
4Zoomers -12.5 v BeastCoast @ -120
4Zoomers -12.5 v BeastCoast @ -120

Greatest exposure on tomorrow’s card is in the CDEC match and the Infamous match. Not every book has them, but if you would prefer for a little nicer return on the Infamous kill spreads you can join me on -0.5 in addition or in lieu of the other trades. Nothing for the Infinity against Midas match. Let us exercise the old adage – TBTNB (two bad teams no bet). I mean I think there’s value to Midas here, but I honestly don’t know whether to believe that so just going to veto myself. I’ll take another look tomorrow, but that’s where we stand for now.

MATCH BETS – July 9

The theme of Wednesday’s Chinese Dota was how many Anti-Mage and Terror Blade games can we see, can they remain undefeated. In the four series, with ten games being played, TB went 3-2 winning all three games in the CDEC versus Vici series. AM was chosen 3 times winning two and the singular loss being Sirius against LGD. They can be very fun heroes to watch as spectators so it certainly wasn’t a boring way to begin my morning with these hard carries.

Tomorrow is the lower-bracket final between CDEC and Royal Never Give Up. Marginal value to CDEC. Would like to see a little more dynamic drafting from them tomorrow. We also continue with Week 3 of CDA. LGD needs to be priced at a minimum of 66% against the field. While I will happily go against them as frequently as there is value, their numbers are excellent as a whole over this online period and they still win at a respectable clip in most group stages, playoffs, etc.

There are no Great American Rivalry Division 1 matches on tomorrow. How Midas won a game…still not sure! It was probably the biggest one for these guys over the summer. They still have some time to build on it given how the scheduling is through the group stage so their number will be one to continuously be growing, but might turn rather quickly. Will be interesting!

OGA PIT

CDEC ml v RNG @ -120 with BetOnline

CDA

Aster ml v Invictus @ +110
PSG.LGD ml v RNG @ -160 [2%]

MATCH BETS – July 8

Only one of the four dogs came through yesterday, but that was all that was needed to grind out a marginal +0.3. Our average odds for these three tournaments moved 0.10 up to 2.04 which is something I always like to see when betting esports. Ehome was pushed around for almost the entirety of their 44 and 35 min games. In game one the offlane Visage died four times in the first fifteen minutes. Faith Bian has been performing nearly perfectly on it in 2020, as have all Visage players in the two Chinese tournaments. However, we have seen a bit of a dip on this hero at the highest level since 7.27, which did not actually nerf the hero interestingly enough. With Faith Bian being part of the Wings roster which won TI, the last Chinese team in fact in 2016, I’ll assume it was just a bad opener from him struggling in the 1v2.

Game two was better start for Ehome, but once again their offlaner flopped making an RNG victory almost inevitable. FB was on a Legion Commander this time however the laning stage actually went worse. LC died five times before the 15 minute mark. With Royal Never Give Up running super-carries like Terror Blade and Anti-Mage, not only should the offlaner not gift them a free game, but they need to not feed their own game away either. AM didn’t have any record-breaking timings but a free game means that he will come on before you have delayed his game enough to do take some Roshan’s, take map control or get ahead. Once he has those third and fourth items, and we haven’t reached 30 minutes, then you’re….in trouble.

Aster had a great series with Invictus, falling short in game three. You can compare the Anti-Mage game they ran in contrast to RNG’s to see what I mean about timings. While Aster’s AM eventually was six-slotted, he was the be-all and end-all of their hope to win the game as the other cores were picked off far too many times. Fade did have some sublime echo slams but was not enough in the end.

However at +300 they were able to get the 2-0 over PSG.LGD. Game one was wild with seven or eight gold advantage changes, LGD getting megas, but ultimately losing to buyback status and some key Aegis’ victories for the underdogs. Game two was entirely one-sided in favor of our guys. Only need to contrast the game Medusa and Lifestealer had. Additionally, facing LGD, there was no better sight for us than seeing an Arc Warden die five times in twenty minutes, only attain a monkey king bar, and do less damage than Aster’s position four Void Spirit.

We resume the Great American Rivalry Dota tourny tomorrow. I have backed all the favorites on their kill spreads with the exception of Infamous/Infinite in which I sold 5 pts on Infinite to cover -0.5 instead. Only just noticed that Evil Geniuses had dropped out at some point, giving way to an unknown entity to enter the ring. For those whom have just started following, Rivalry’s tournament is in the group stage running best-of-twos for the next week or so. I despise bo2’s for no other reason than ‘why even bother if there is no certainty there is going to be a winner’. NA brain I suppose.

OGA PIT

Royal Never Give Up ml v Invictus @ -111 [1.5%] BetOnline
Vici ml v CDEC @ +100 [1.5%]

CDA

Sirius +1.5 v LGD @ +170
Sirius ml v LGD @ +700
Aster +1.5 v CDEC @ -170 [1.5%]
Aster ml v CDEC @ +200

Rivalry

Crazy -16.5 v Midas @ +100
Crazy -16.5 v Midas @ +100
Infamous -9.5 v Midas @ -110
Infamous -9.5 v Midas @ -110
Infinite -0.5 v Infamous @ +120
Infinite -0.5 v Infamous @ +120
Thunder Predator -6.5 v BeastCoast @ -110
Thunder Predator -6.5 v BeastCoast @ -110

MATCH BETS – July 7

Had a chat with a colleague this afternoon regarding the duel competitions running in China at the moment and agreed with his suggestion it would add value to share for both. It is a rare situation in both sports and most esports to have teams competing in more than one tournament day-to-day, however that is the situation with the CDA and OGA PIT. If my ratings are adjusting based upon performances that I am not sharing it is likely more detrimental where there is such significant overlap between the teams.

CDA is a national domestic league only running in China and currently in the midst of season two. Week 3 begins tomorrow with 12 matches up to July 12th followed by Week 4 and then playoffs. It holds 10 teams, 8 of which competed in OGA and 6 that are still remaining in those playoffs. The two teams which were excluded are Sirius and iG Vitality. PSG.LGD and Sparking Arrow are the two already eliminated from OGA Pit but currently running a bit better in the domestic league.

Tomorrow we have two big underdogs in Sirius facing Sparking Arrow and Aster against LGD. In terms of pedigree, LGD has separated itself from the pack for most of the past two years straight. While they are undoubtedly the team to beat in the region just about every other Chinese organization has taken a series or two off them over the past four months.

In the PIT tournament we continue with the lower-bracket elimination matches. You can take the Aster +1.5 for 2% stake down a bit past 70% to -250/1.4. The Bet365 prices are lagging quite a bit behind the respect of the market at +175 and -200 for the spread.

I think the expectation is that EHOME’s wins over Vici and LGD are not reliable or something possibly? Even prior to this tourny though the form is not nearly this distinct between RNG and Ehome and could say that about these two for most of the past two years with neither club ever running away with the head-to-head.

The Great American Rivalry tournament is still going, the scheduling is just a bit silly with the two divisions and neither running both days. Think we are back on the 8th and then every 2-3 days through the remainder of the month.

OGA PIT

Aster ml v Invictus @ +155 [1.5%]
Aster +1.5 v Invictus @ -210 [2%] Heritage
Ehome ml v Royal Never Give Up @ +130 Bookmaker

CDA

Sirius +1.5 v Sparking Arrow @ +100
Sirius ml v Sparking Arrow @ +350
Aster +1.5 v PSG.LGD @ -120
Aster ml v PSG.LGD @ +300

MATCH BETS – July 6

A new home and even American odds for the anti-decimal crowd out there! The daily Dota entries will be out each night, possibly some mornings instead, and will cover the remainder of the OGA Pit tournament and the Great American Rivalry group stage and playoffs. Did I just hear a collective sigh of relief there is no Team Secret running amok this week?

Some wagers may sometimes still be posted on Twitter due to the availability of lines being less than 12 hours in many circumstances. I was a bit chaffed today that a number of prominent sportsbooks were not offering kill spreads for the Rivalry tournament. Some did later in the day, but we are still not at the point where there are a full slate of sports on…so what gives!

The Chinese competition continues with two upper-bracket matches at a lovely 2 am eastern. That means you can go from watching CS Summit 6, to Rocket Mortgage, to Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400, to OGA Dota Pit and then round out your all-nighter with some NPB! I knew no one was really missing mainstream sports…

OGA has been a funny one so far. By funny I mean the form of teams is incredibly difficult to be confident in. Chinese Dota, when I last shared it, was incredibly profitable and perhaps we will still end that way. However, seeing how terribly inconsistent some of these teams have looked from one day to the next leaves me feeling less than inspired. Like always though we plug on and hope the same methodology that has been profitable in the Dotes all year long comes to fruition here.

If you are looking Vici’s way, there is a -120 out there which, prior to this tournament, would be excellent for them. However even with their last two victories, over Aster and a wtf version of PSG.LGD, I prefer the value to the marginal dog. With the other series I actually have IG favored…but again, which CDEC are we seeing.

Esports Picks:

Ehome ml v Vici Gaming @ +110
Invictus ml v CDEC @ +120 at Heritage