The Europe side of the IEM bracket was filled with three ‘upsets’ over the four matches on day one of the new event. Are they really upsets though? In betting terms, yes, but not truly when you are looking at the talent and capabilities. I had the option of writing about the Dota here, but wanted to look at the biggest dog win on the day instead – Faze over Heroic. This series is the perfect illustration of my point.
The Danes made headlines on Monday when they were announced as the new #1 team in CSGO per the HLTV rankings. HLTV is the unofficial official voice on this matter, made known by the many players whom have tweeted out that they have officially reached a professional goal by achieving this.
This was followed by this tweet today:
It is interesting because statistically this is not the worst game they have played with this lineup. In fact their worst was actually last week being crushed by Navi when Cadian attributed that loss to Electronic having a day, which is somewhat true at 54 kills. However two Faze players both ‘popped off’ with 46. What really separates the two scores was Heroic demonstrated less firepower today achieving less kills even though there was one more round played than against Navi. Cadian is likely right in his assessment that it was their worst performance as a lineup, especially considering the price. However it was only a month ago that these very same Danes were priced as an underdog against Faze Clan.
If you took Heroic today I can certainly understand why, but you have to ask yourself what is the tipping point. How much worse can Faze become and how much better can Heroic perform. Additionally how good must Heroic be in order to justify a price like that against the talent that is on the server facing them game in and game out. The other thing to note is that the HLTV ranking system has been somewhat suspect through this online era. In 2020 there have been 9 lead changes at the top of HLTV’s board – NINE! Since the ranking’s inception in 2015 there has only ever been five changes in an entire calendar year and I only looked at March to October. There have been eight different teams crowned as best in the world, and several only for a week or two.
These are just a few reflective notes to keep in mind when pricing out this same circle of teams through online competition. It is not to suggest Heroic would not return the favor to Faze if they played tomorrow, or to say the Danes are undeserving of their illustrious new position at the top of the world.
- (visit our Sportsbook Review)
- Heroic ml v Big @ -130
Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.