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cs_summit 6: Match Bets

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Adam’s 2020 cs_summit 6 Record (updated daily)

PicksWinLossPushAvg. PriceAccuracyProfit
1648579+13651.38%+22.78u

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MATCH BETS – July 5

NOTE: There was an error in yesterday’s article which displayed GenG moneyline at +320 instead of +220. It has been corrected.

Grand finals day has arrived for the Summit 6 tournament. Both regions feature a best-of-five series with the team coming from the upper-bracket being given a 1-0 map advantage. We have already seen Big Clan conquer one of these situations a month ago when they faced G2. There were a lot of similarities to today’s match in fact. An upper-bracket French team with a 1-0 advantage facing a lower-bracket German squad needing revenge for their recent defeat. Both G2 and Vitality were likely to ban Train, with Big opting to ban Vertigo (at least this time around).

However unlike the meeting with G2, Big is actually the favorite against Vitality. ‘But Adam, Vitality is -200 and Big is an amazing +180!’ lsakjfa;osij!??23521…ahem, you’re right of course. However, the task for the Clan is winning a best-of-five before Zywoo’s group can win a best-of-three. Not entirely true, but it is important to think in this context. The much more straightforward way to see which team is favored today is to look at the map moneylines which all hold Big between -115 to -125 and the French side at -105 to +105.

I have decided to go a bit of a different route with my wagers on this match and have taken Vitality’s alternate map spreads. While there is value on their series spread and moneyline, it is their -2.5 instead of +2.5 which is most enticing. It seems that Vitality will get to choose the first map if they like and two of the first three. However, covering the map spreads only requires them to cover on two of four maps for a nice half unit of profit. The sooner they win, if they do, the greater the value. While the series is expected to be a close affair, these -2.5’s are priced around 43% which is always significant value for even marginally better teams which I have Vitality at. Of course, the possibility always exists that their only map wins come 16-14 against a German side with an excellent map pool.

If you prefer the Evil Geniuses side of things today, I recommend taking the -3.5 at even money or greater for all four maps. Those would be the only plays that I have holding a modicum of value. I am REALLY hoping GenG doesn’t choose Train to open up the series again. Yes, they do have one victory on it against EG, but the other performances have been almost entirely ugly in that first T-half.

Europe

Vitality -2.5 map2 v Big @ +135 with BetOnline
Vitality -2.5 map3 v Big @ +135
Vitality -2.5 map4 v Big @ +135
Vitality -2.5 map5 v Big @ +140

North America

GenG +2.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -165 with Heritage
GenG +1.5 v Evil Geniuses @ +200
GenG ml v Evil Geniuses @ +440

MATCH BETS – July 4

As we round into the final two days of the CS Summit 6 tournament there are only three teams remaining in each region. In Europe Vitality‘s win over Big has secured them a grand final spot against the winner of today’s bout between the Germans and, the somewhat surprising, OG. This is by far their best showing of 2020 and it came after a string of truly poor results.

OG lost to Contact at Home Sweet Home 7, followed by consecutive losses in the ESL Pro League qualifiers to Forze and Havu, then a swift knockout at the hands of Complexity and Nip at Blast before entering the Summit. In the five days between Blast and Summit, they must have put some work in as their run has been nothing short of roster-saving. They have now won nine of their last ten matches and are 7-1 at this tournament including the qualifiers. Their singular loss was at the hands of Vitality, while they also beat today’s opponent Big in a tight three map affair. The German clan have been on one helluva heater themselves losing just three matches since the beginning of June – G2, OG, and Vitality. They have attained 11 rounds or more in 33 of their 36 maps played over that time meaning that they have come to play in every single contest.

Interestingly, at Summit, these teams have only played the same five maps with neither playing Vertigo nor Train. I expect OG will once more ban Vertigo, with Big taking out Train but from there it is always a question of whether to go to the same maps. I would lean towards seeing the same veto again. However if I am BIG I am prepping my Overpass here as that is the true wildcard map. That is not to say they cannot win without playing it. However if they have an edge on it, which their statistics suggest, then I will remove Mirage and force OG to choose between Dust2/Nuke or Overpass as the decider. OG is no slouch on Nuke however BIG has been far more dominant. Now there is the possibility that BIG would rather not risk Overpass, with it being a rather unknown entity, and feel they have improved their Mirage and Inferno to counter what OG ran last time. These are just the mind games that coaches and IGL’s will play in preparation for a match.

Tabsen‘s crew do have the better map pool, but unfortunately I cannot take them for their price. Additionally working out the veto is not really what determines the winner anyway. Either team could win 2-0 here, or trade one another’s map as we so frequently see.

In the North American side of things, it will all come down to which team is more assertive in their calling. I am not sure what it is about this region, but so many of the top teams enter this sort of ‘lull’ through entire maps and they do so on both sides. On T-side it looks like ‘you go first, no you go first, no u…’ and then they die 10 seconds apart achieving nothing mid-round. On CT-side it looks like ‘let’s just play 2-1-2 and even though it is now a 4v4 we’ll just camp in the site and wait for the T’s to execute’. Liquid can marginally get away with it more because they are more talented and experienced as a whole. However, if GenG get in this state, no price will be worth taking them and the maps become wholly irrelevant. If we get the GenG against 100 Thieves (who I was on the other night and also played an excellent series for 3/4 halves) then we might have a contest today. GenG should ban Overpass again, and not pick Mirage. After Liquid picking it against EG yesterday we know it is a map they have once more worked on and they looked very good despite the loss. Nuke or Vertigo would be my leans here but wherever they do decide to go with it no map will be a free win against Liquid.

Europe
OG ml v Big @ +180 with BetOnline
OG +1.5 v Big @ -175 [2%]
North America
GenG +1.5 v Liquid @ -155 with Heritage
GenG ml v Liquid @ +220
GenG +3.5 v Liquid @ -120
GenG +3.5 v Liquid @ -120
GenG +3.5 v Liquid @ -115

PLEASE READ:

Always risking 1u, never ‘to win’ 1u. If I expose two, that still remains risking 2u, not betting 2.5 to win 1 simply because the price is shorter than what I have. A standard stake here is 1u = 1% of your bankroll. This will keep you in the game instead of busting out every other day because you decided to be stupid and put your entire bankroll down on 8 wagers. If you have worse prices you don’t bet more to compensate. Please do not attach my plays in parlays, you are costing yourself extra money trying to cut corners.

MATCH BETS – July 3

Remember yesterday when I said all five favorites won on Wednesday? 24 hrs later all five underdogs at Summit 6 took their series…beautiful! By far the most frustrating series to witness was North pulling off the 2-0 upset over the Ninjas. That was the Danes’s best performance since their victory over G2 ages ago with their coach. Yeah, it’s true, Nip’s numbers were a bit off considering the maps that came up, but the real question is where was this version of North all this time?

The other series I thought fell into this category was GenG’s 2-0 over 100 Thieves. Their T-side was far more assertive than what we have seen through much of Summit and deserved the victory.

Today’s matches march on with the playoffs in both regions. In the three European series, I am on all the underdogs here for considerable value, though all three teams with the shorter price are playing excellent obviously as well. It is interesting that all three series somewhat represent a changing of the guard, in a way. That said all six of these teams have an excellent mix of budding talent and also the most experienced names from the region. The European side has been pretty cold to me this week, but that’s only ever a day or two from turning.

In the America’s side we have a meeting of the two heavyweights of NA – Liquid and Evil Geniuses. Unsurprising to see the line at the price it currently sits about 51-49 in favor of EG. I am going to spend a little more time on this series so will post it later in the afternoon.

Europe

-OG ml v Heroic @ +125 [2%] BetOnline
-Vitality ml v Big @ +100 [1.5%]
-Godsent ml v Fnatic @ +160 [1.5%]

MATCH BETS – July 2

Was a good day for the favs at the Summit 6 yesterday as all five won, and all five won 2-0. All five underdogs put up a good fight on one of those two maps, well Ence did in the first half of Train. As Moses pointed out, after a 6-0 lead on the T-side of Train (solid) the Finns lost 32 of the next 40 rounds to drop both maps rather quickly. I believe G2 has remained undefeated when the opponent has picked Train, however they did lose this map the one time they chose it…lovely!

Movistar Riders, Fnatic, and GenG lost their map pick 16-12, 16-13, 16-14… a little variance there and the day likely ends positive! So I believe G2 and Faze have ended their Summit campaign now with those victories yesterday in the 9th – 12th place decider bracket. Today Nip faces a very poor performing Danish team in North for 7th place. Both teams have disappointed in a sense, however the quality of their play despite both competing for the same position is quite distinct. I’ll say what I said earlier this month – North actually looked better with Jumpy.

Fnatic and OG were relegated to the lower-bracket of the official playoffs and face Godsent and Heroic – both fresh off 2-0 victories. Fnatic and Heroic went head-to-head in the qualifier for this event where an overtime victory and 11 straight rounds on the CT-side of Nuke brought the Danes victory.

On the North American side we have just four teams remaining…wait, that’s all we had to begin the playoffs. Liquid, Evil Geniuses, 100 Thieves and GenG are the final four and the winner will be decided over the next four matches. Oh but Furia and Cloud9 will first do battle to determine which of them was less disappointing at this tournament. 100T and GenG have an elimination match today. These two have faced twice in 2020 with each team taking a 2-0 victory over four different maps. GenG continuing to pick Train would be all 100T might wish for!

Europe

Nip -3.5 v North @ -120 with Heritage
Nip -3.5 v North @ -125
Nip -3.5 v North @ -125
Fnatic ml v Heroic @ -125 [2%]
Godsent ml v OG @ -125 [1.5%]

Americas

100 Thieves ml v GenG @ -190
100 Thieves -2.5 v GenG @ -110
100 Thieves -2.5 v GenG @ -110
100 Thieves -2.5 v GenG @ -110
Cloud9 +1.5 v Furia @ -155
Cloud9 ml v Furia @ +210
Cloud9 +3.5 v Furia @ -120
Cloud9 +3.5 v Furia @ -120
Cloud9 +3.5 v Furia @ -110

MATCH BETS – July 1

Cadian dropping 45 kills in two maps contrasting MSL’s 14 spelled out another dominant win for Heroic over North. This makes 9/10 maps going their way since late 2019. Was a good veto by both teams, North just didn’t make adjustments to the speed at which Heroic opened up that T-side of Dust2. If players can constantly just sprint with knives out down suicide to catwalk you’re going to have problems. On Train the score was closer, but I didn’t think North actually played better.

It would be completely hilarious for xSeven to be kicked for a lack of firepower on Ence, only to top frag against one of the more talented teams in the scene as a stand-in. Well…that’s what happened yesterday. That was the first time the Finn has dropped 50+ kills in any two maps of a best-of-three since he was with iGame.com playing against SJ in March of 2018 and they won 22-19, 16-6. However it is the first time that he has hit 50 or more kills, without needing overtime, since 2016 when he was with LGR playing against Anox and they won 16-11, 16-11. The 1.63 rating he received on Dust2 was just the 31st time in 950 career matches that he has hit 1.6. This is why there are theories that Jamppi was playing for xSeven – player cameras please? Just jokes, but it was a standout performance for one of those Finns…

Liquid and 100 Thieves had an excellent series. A proper veto from both though we might assume 100T are still brushing up on their Mirage if they are still taking it out. Both teams played well on all three maps, but our side fell short on Inferno!

I posted Vitality’s trades yesterday, the rest are from this morning. When Big last played Fnatic back in March we hit a 30% winner on the Germans with a brilliant T-side comeback. So what has changed in those three months to now favor them to the tune of 58%? They are one of the teams in the hottest form at the moment and have enjoyed picking on a Faze team in desperate need of an IGL. However they are not playing a shitty version of Fnatic either. This is a 52% match, and with a couple pistols and a good veto the Swedes can undoubtedly get it done as well.

Europe

Vitality ml v OG @ -200 [2%]
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -125
Fnatic ml v Big @ +125 [1.5%] with BetOnline
G2 ml v Ence @ -170
G2 -2.5 v Ence @ -110
G2 -2.5 v Ence @ -110
G2 -2.5 v Ence @ -110
Movistar Riders +1.5 v Faze @ +100
Movistar Riders ml v Faze @ +380
Movistar Riders +4.5 v Faze @ -115
Movistar Riders +4.5 v Faze @ -115
Movistar Riders +4.5 v Faze @ -115

Americas

GenG +1.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -150
GenG ml v Evil Geniuses @ +210
GenG +3.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -120
GenG +3.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -120
GenG +3.5 v Evil Geniuses @ -115

MATCH BETS – June 30

North and Heroic both put up a respectable fight as about 36% dogs against OG and Vitality, but neither were the better team on two of three maps and deserved to drop in the end. I thought Fnatic played one of their better series in the past month despite it being only a marginal victory. DDK summarized it best that either team looks fully capable of winning every single round, the winner will simply be which team edges out the trading.

Now, this is the case in most CS matches, but it certainly applied to this series. Brollan, the young Swedish talent who is meant to be their budding superstar, was the difference yesterday in that trading game. Both maps were good for both Swedish teams as well with Fnatic likely edging out their choice of Inferno with both pistols. I did think the Ninjas over-complicated the calling in a few rounds but really can’t be critical of their performance as a whole.

Today we have a derby between #3 and #4 (?) Danish teams. I want to say its an elimination match but looking at the multitude of brackets the loser will likely get relegated to the 7th place decider. Now before any jabronis think this about everyone getting a ribbon for finishing any spot besides #1, it is for the major qualification points [insert:wesmart:].

Unsurprisingly, Heroic is favored to win. Surprisingly they are -200, no -300…wait no, -400…ah yes, 75% to beat their domestic rival. Cause let’s be honest this is a battle of the washed-up big brain IGL’s with their mediocre awp skills trying to grasp at the last tendrils of their careers before they are kicked for one another a final time before retiring for good. Heroic have the superior map pool and form, but tacking an extra 15% onto that seems ambitious.

So Heritage and Bet365 both have reasonable lines for maps one and two, but map three is a delightful -150 for the -2.5. No sense taking that. If Ence stomp on their map pick, or map two, whichever it is we could at the very least see some reduced chalk there. If that doesn’t work out that way will either be a Faze -3.5 at a reduced margin book or a pass.

Europe

North +1.5 v Heroic @ -120 [2%]
North ml v Heroic @ +280 [1.5%]
Godsent +1.5 v Ninjas @ -160 [1.5%]
Godsent ml v Ninjas @ +200 with BetOnline
Faze -2.5 v Ence @ -125
Faze -2.5 v Ence @ -125
Movistar Riders +1.5 v G2 @ +110
Movistar Riders ml v G2 @ +400
Movistar Riders +4.5 v G2 @ -120
Movistar Riders +4.5 v G2 @ -115
Movistar Riders +4.5 v G2 @ -110

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Tomorrow:

Vitality ml v OG @ -200 [2%]
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v OG @ -125

Don’t normally share more than a day ahead, but see no reason to hold off on this Vitality line. Going to be posting tonight’s NA match between Liquid and 100Thieves a little later in the afternoon.

MATCH BETS – June 29

Every match yesterday was a rematch of a series we saw either a couple of days prior or within the last two weeks. In the case of Faze and Big it has now been played four times in the month of June, each with the same result – a 2-0 for the Germans where they crushed on Nuke and also stole Faze’s choice. Big is playing incredibly on their choice, so let us say it is a write-off (which it shouldn’t be), the mixed clan have tried Inferno, Mirage twice, and yesterday Dust2.

Faze had the lead briefly in the second half of Dust2 before losing seven of their next nine rounds. It’s really not that hard to get the bomb down without losing your entire team on a short A play – smoke, two mollies, flash, flash, flash…flash, plant bomb, smoke and molly short…play time and kill as they come up from CT and long. Why these rounds fall apart is not because it is to retake, its because teams lose too many players before the bomb is planted in un-tradeable ways. What’s that Niko? You want us to run from catwalk, past ninja and plant? I am sure there won’t be an AWP sitting comfortably.

The other strat which looked so so so poor was the takes of Long A both early and late into a round. Why do it unless you have a spawn to get someone out there before the CT’s? Big never left that open. Here is another tip for all the aspiring matchmaking superstars – if you have the bomb and there are 30 seconds left in the round, why are you running from catwalk back to long doors? Yeah, your players should probably trade but think about the time you are wasting trying to escort the bomb up long. Send your two players through those doors, okay excusable, you can even make one of them the awper. These are the types of details that are holding Faze back.

Next round? Niko brings the saved AWP into a pistol/save. He does a great job getting the pick out mid and Faze has the read there is almost certainly only one remaining player in B, which is correct, so they decide to go B. Sorry, let me rephrase. Niko doesn’t go B, his team with four pistols…sorry let me clarify. Niko with the one long range rifle decides to hold mid with a sniper rifle in a series of close range angles while his players with two glocks, one p250, and one deagle decide to crouch walk through a choke point trying to fight a headshot angle with another AWP. Oh, but did I mention Coldzera through a smoke to block off the rotate from CT while his teammates were dying? How a professional player doesn’t throw the T lurk smoke out of the tunnel there is incredibly perplexing.

Final round of the map Faze go to execute a short A play again. This time an excellent flank from Tizian, who thinks they are going to B, in which he happens to look mid and see Bymas jumping up to x-box and he kills him. Unfortunate part here is Bymas was the only player left with any flashes. Broky rushed out anyway, and the rest is history. This is one reason why less talented teams, if you want to call them that, are able to beat better ones so regularly.

The North American side was excellent – outside of one poor Vertigo showing from GenG we cruised relatively easily to the two wins there. Liquid once more asserted their dominance on the team everyone, well me anyway, is looking at to be the next contender worldwide. Furia’s problem is their CT-sides. They forego proper diversity of setups/pushing for info with ‘let’s win or lose the round in the first 20 seconds’. It is just poor from a strategic standpoint on maps like Nuke and Inferno because there are so few places to go and there is almost always going to be a T there. So even if you go 1-1 the terrorists benefit from that trade and now know where one member of the defense is. CT aggression, though necessary on every map, is much easier to come by on Mirage, Overpass, and Train. This is the next big evolution for the Brazilian tactics.

Europe

North +1.5 v OG @ -165 [2%]
North ml v OG @ +200 [1.5%]
Ninjas in Pyjamas ml v Fnatic @ +100 with BetOnline
Vitality -2.5 v Heroic @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v Heroic @ -120
Vitality -2.5 v Heroic @ -120
Godsent +1.5 v Big @ -140 [2%]
Godsent ml v Big @ +280 [1.5%]

MATCH BETS – June 28

Based on the pricing of the Vitality and North series we knew the Danes were not likely to be on the same level of Zywoo and co but they were not entirely dreadful either. They were not the better team in any half of Overpass or Nuke however they did compete and that’s all you can ask MSL to do some days! We likely get a round cover on Overpass with a slightly more coordinated CT side, but the French did an excellent job to wrestle the economy away in the second half and close it out with aggressive and decisive play.

Speaking of decisive, one team that wasn’t, is G2’s performance against Godsent. It is so utterly painful to watch this team continue to Jekyll and Hyde themselves out of matches. Godsent was the better team on Train, but not on Nuke…though that didn’t prevent them from winning. I was wondering when G2 would pick Train. Over the past two weeks, I had been a fan of their improvement on it, though it was never their map pick. In each one they also began on the CT side with 9, 12, and 11 rounds attained in each. Their T-side was not awful but they struggled to limit their fatalities before getting the bomb down. On Nuke we just witnessed a poor T-side, but it was actually a better one than Godsent’s showing.

The big upset of the day was OG over…oh dear, what have I done…Berlin International Gaming (phew). The Germans were on a streak of 14 straight map wins and 8 straight best-of-three victories. I didn’t think either team played poorly though the series was a bit streaky. I think the real trick was Big thinking they needed to ban Overpass against OG. Maybe one of those ‘has OG been practicing it more than us’ scenarios. Either way OG not having to play the German clan on Nuke was pivotal.

In the North American side both series were incredibly lopsided, one for me and one against. I am finding this Liquid/EG rivalry a bit frustrating at this point. Not just because of the sides I happen to back, but the relatively easy victory for the opposition. I was very impressed with EG on Inferno, both sides of the server. Tarik was the standout player undoubtedly, not because he got the most kills last night but because it so rarely happens that he is leading the scoreboard. Maybe he just needs to play against Stewie all the time.

100Thieves got off to a rough start, but the careless CT play from Cloud9 once more resurfaced granting them access into Vertigo. The Aussies had two-player deficits in two of the first three rounds they won, I believe, and yet strung together eight of the next nine rounds. C9 did well to salvage the half with some excellent retakes, however, they were never allowed a footing into the second half. It began with the pistol when 100Thieves PERFECTLY anti-stratted Cloud9’s pistol (very popular at the moment) with a split of B through mid. How do I know it was an anti-strat? Because of the setup. From the very first 10 seconds into the round 100T had both JKS and Grat watching mid from long-range angles. AZR was pushed up to stairs, and they had Liazz already holding as they dropped into B. The strat could have still worked if Sonic had not been waiting so long to move up the stairs. He may have been able to kill AZR before the IGL picked off two players and Liazz would be screwed at the position he held. AZR mentioned after the stream that the team had been working on their CT sides lately. This is incredibly necessary if you recall that one sad Nuke performance they had against C9 at Blast earlier in the month.

Europe

G2 ml v Fnatic @ -150 with Heritage
Movistar Riders ml v North @ +120
Heroic ml v Ence @ -155 with BetOnline
Faze ml v Big @ +100
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MATCH BETS – June 27

Movistar Riders and Fate opened up with a tight first half of Inferno, however, after that it was all Spaniards. They shutdown Fate’s offense rather easily thanks to a second-round forcebuy after the lost pistol. Hitting their shots seemed to be a significant part of it as the rounds were never really that close for the most part. On the Bulgarian’s choice of Mirage their T-side again struggled only getting the bomb down four times in fifteen rounds. Even though they won the second pistol Movistar never allowed them to work back into it. I still would not say MSR are strong on Mirage, their statistics on it are poor especially when considering most of the opposition.

Fnatic and Mousesports also began their series on Inferno. Going back to the trend of Mouse losses on it, I was surprised with about the first 75% of that match. The European mix won the CT-half 9-6, and then their T pistol putting them up to 12. After that, they were absolutely dreadful. Don’t misunderstand this as ‘Fnatic did not play well’, because they did, at least on the defense. However this is Inferno and Mouse have had how long to work on it? Going back to March, when the online circuit began, Karrigan‘s group have lost 10/11 games they have played on it. Half of those losses have been by 11 rounds or more. Dreadful. Their singular win on it was a part of the Gamers Without Borders charity event which played MR12 against OG, so certainly an asterisk needed there.

Moving to Nuke this was an excellent choice from Mouse, though they did not play particulary well. At least it wasn’t a 16-1 like the last time they competed on it against the Swedes. Fnatic was on quite a losing run on Nuke heading into yesterday. Both their CT and T sides were struggling. It should be noted that they had faced some excellent Nuke teams through that stretch.

With Heretics and X6tence we had very contrasting results from these big underdogs. Faze were sublime in both their CT side of Nuke and T side of Train. It’s pretty clear that the French team needs to put some work into their map pool at the moment. That is five straight maps they have been absolutely crushed on, minus the one good half on Nuke against OG.

Europe

G2 -3.5 v Godsent @ -110
G2 -3.5 v Godsent @ -115 with BetOnline
G2 -3.5 v Godsent @ -105
North +1.5 v Vitality @ +115
North ml v Vitality @ +380
North +4.5 v Vitality @ -120
North +4.5 v Vitality @ -120
North +4.5 v Vitality @ -120
Ninjas in Pyjamas ml v Heroic @ -155 [2%]
OG +1.5 v Big @ -125 with BetOnline
OG ml v Big @ +260
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MATCH BETS – June 26

Completely contrasting todays between the two regions over the last two days – a perfect showing from Europe yesterday while dropping both North American wagers. Would it be too bold to say all four EU series won easily? We did see a three mapper in the Heroic and OG series, however, based on the scorelines alone it would be very challenging to say that Heretics or Ence were the better team.

I was surprised OG made Nuke their pick. While they clearly had something prepped, and likely close it out against many opponents after the first half, they were also facing a team that has an unreal win rate on it. It is not just Heretics wins on Nuke either, they have beat a handful of quality opponents on that map while putting up impressive T-side numbers in nearly every single one. I think anyone who followed the Rio Major qualifiers will recall some of the scalps they took on that map. Thankfully OG were ready to go on the CT-side of the other two maps in the series.

Ence had a nice performance on their choice of Train. They lost the opening pistol but still recovered a brilliant 8-7 T-half. When they converted the second pistol it was basically smooth sailing from then on. However, it is clear that having xSeven back in the mix, despite competing with him for two years, was not allowing them to play at their best. Though I certainly do not put that at his feet.

Both Big and Nip rolled to comfortable 2-0 wins in their series. The German side certainly has Faze Clan’s number at the moment. That is three consecutive 2-0’s all by varying levels of dominance. X6tence don’t appear to be the same team since the Rio qualifiers. While the Ninjas are undoubtedly on an upward trajectory, the old Copenhagen Flames likely would not have been decimated to that degree. It will be interesting to see how long it persists.

From the North American side, I wasn’t so much impressed by EG and Cloud9 as I was critical of the GenG and Furia performances. Both sides made mistakes, no surprises there, however Inferno for both teams I backed was plain embarrassing at times. Sure the scorelines were not so distinct but they really didn’t seem to be on the same level for the price we were offered.

Betting Picks:

Fnatic ml v Mousesports @ -140
Movistar Riders ml @ +100 [1.5%] BetOnline
X6tence +1.5 v Ence @ -140
X6tence ml v Ence @ 250
Heretics +1.5 v Faze @ -110
Heretics ml v Faze @ 300
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MATCH BETS – June 25

Incredibly contrasting returns between the European and North American side of things in the Summit card yesterday. As I mentioned in the Clutch piece, Vitality wanted to see if they could beat Navi’s fastest best-of-three record… apparently, the two teams had a date to play Valorant afterward. Mousesports slump continued into their match against Godsent. They didn’t play that poorly to be fair to them. Godsent had the economic advantage in all four halves, won the majority of the clutches, and Mouse was not able to convert their many bomb plants on both maps. Transfer 25% of those and we likely see a Mousesports victory.

I was very impressed by G2’s performance on the most CT-sided of maps. Their calling both pre-round and mid-round seemed very succinct. Their firepower advantage was also realized and Kenny did an excellent job in his opening duels. Nexa continued his run of consistent contribution with 41 kills, 20 headshots, in 47 rounds. He has never been thought of as weak, but there was definitely a spell where his numbers as IGL fell off understandably.

I think we can reasonably say North is at or around the level of opponent they faced yesterday, Movistar Riders. This time they bested them, however, it was a grueling three mapper where MSR were keeping up with them every step. I think MSL’s boast that they would be top 10, or was it top 5, by the end of the year is a bit lofty…but he’s still got time.

In the American side of things we had both our teams winning 2-0 and covering the spread. I’ll admit that when Chaos got out to that 6-0 start on T-side of Nuke it looked like they might have already done enough to get the cover. However their primary tactic of go fast with four T’s does not work well on Nuke and all it took was the Aussies getting the rifles and utility to put an end to it. Chaos won all four pistols in the series but did not cover either map, including 100 Thieves’ choice of Inferno which they had beat the Brazilians on a couple days prior. Did Leaf forget to toggle?

Liquid went back to a map that has been a good one to them overall in the last year, Overpass. They worked out to an 11-4 T-side which actually has not been so rare for them. Moving to Inferno we had a closer affair, however, just when it appeared the Brazilians were about to take a lead for the first time, they lost to a pistol round to put Liquid on 10-9. As it so often does this knocked them to a forcebuy in the next round with smgs and a lack of utility – sure enough TL won that round too putting them on a streak of six of the next seven rounds.

Europe Betting Picks:

Nip -4.5 v X6tence @ -115
Nip -4.5 v X6tence @ -115
Nip -4.5 v X6tence @ -105
Heroic ml v Ence @ -120 with Heritage
Big ml v Faze @ -125 with BetOnline
OG ml v Heretics @ -120 [2%]

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MATCH BETS – June 24

The qualifiers for the two regions of Summit concluded yesterday. In the European side Fnatic locked up the final spot with a 2-1 victory over Contact. It was probably Contact’s best single day performance we have seen from them in 2020, and it was with Snappi. They took down recent kings of Blast Premier Europe with a gruelling three map series 16-14, 17-19, 22-19. The key improvement from them was respectable T-sides against a formidable CT squad on more than one map. While Complexity were off to a slow start on Train, they were not under-performing as the series went on.

Fnatic swept through Pact rather swiftly. Interestingly it was the Swedes first 2-0 since the first week of May when they beat Complexity 19-16, 16-14. Even more surprising is that it was their first 2-0 in which they did not allow the opponents to get to double digits on either map since a 2-0 over Complexity back in March. So yeah, it is fair to say Fnatic played better than usual! They followed this up with decisive wins on Mirage and Overpass against Contact. That said they really should have closed it out in two. They held 10-6 and 14-9 leads on the CT-side of Train. However given the impressive T numbers we witnessed from Contact against Col, we can’t be too critical here.

On the North American side we were one blown 8-1 lead away from sweeping four map spreads, which lost by a round. Interestingly in the decider, Mibr against Triumph, we witnessed Grim post career best performances against a quality team. He had a K/D of 123-70…mental stuff. Oh and he posted those numbers from the losing side! Those are the types of standout performances that will get him poached by a bigger organization.

Today we begin the official tournament. With the exception of Fate, who squeezed their way in through an upset over Dignitas and defeat of Pact, all teams will be very familiar. X6tence signed Copenhagen Flames which no longer holds Farlig as he was signed by Godsent. All matches will be best-of-three until the grand finals which is best-of-five and grants a one map advantage to the upper-bracket finalist…sigh.

Europe Betting Picks:

Fnatic ml v G2 @ +110 with Heritage
Mousesports ml v Godsent @ -165 [2%]
Movistar Riders ml v North @ +130
Fate +1.5 v Vitality @ +170
Fate ml v Vitality @ +630
Fate +5.5 v Vitality @ -125
Fate +5.5 v Vitality @ -110
Fate +5.5 v Vitality @ -130

MATCH BETS – June 23

The talk of the (CS) town on Monday night was the accusations towards one ‘Leaf’, currently playing for Chaos. For those unaware cheating is extremely common in non-professional Counter-Strike. Valve introduced a feature called ‘Overwatch’ to the game in which casual players of varying experience can grade the demos of reported players suspected of cheating. It is a form of allowing the community to self-regulating by essentially granting powers similar to a jury.

In regards to the professional scene cheating accusations have been made towards every player I can think of at all levels. It is a common trend when a relatively unknown player first breaks out on the scene. Steel, IGL of Chaos, and one of the elders of the American region holds a lifetime ban from Valve events for match-fixing. This has left him as the head of a farm team more often than not. Many current pros have played with him and some of the better ones been accused of cheating in the past – Stewie2k, Subroza, Wardell were the ones that came to mind.

Steel’s challenge is he must acquire players that are unknown and unproven, but also talented. Very few experienced pros would choose to play with someone who cannot compete for the biggest events in the calendar. So Steel is continuously forced to play with aspiring pros like 16-year-old Leaf. It is like its ingrained into the CS community psyche at all levels that a player could not possibly be better so they search for ‘evidence’.

Now I am not making a statment on Leaf or Xeppa’s culpability, would be pointless. What I am saying is that these clips that were circulating in volume around social media have been replicated by nearly every single pro who has made a name for themselves, and certainly all of the best. One player that was brought up a lot on Monday was Ropz, due to age at discovery and recency. Robin went from being accused by many current professionals of cheating in FPL (pug league) to consecutive appearances in the HLTV Top20. The most profiled player to ever face the community was Flusha, who as you should be aware, still plays for Fnatic. In the below video Zeus (Navi), Krystal (Godsent), and Shox (Vitality) discuss an opinion on Flusha/cheating years ago.

The problem regarding the cheating situation is many of the clips used as the basis for the accusations can be excused with things like ‘lifted my mouse, mouse hit the keyboard, wireless mouse glitched, GOTV bug, heard a sound’ etc. However this tweet is very applicable:

Europe Betting Picks:

Contact +1.5 v Complexity @ +110 at Bookmaker
Contact ml v Complexity @ +350
Contact +4.5 v Complexity @ -115
Contact +4.5 v Complexity @ -115
Contact +4.5 v Complexity @ -105
Pact +1.5 v Fnatic @ +120
Pact ml v Fnatic @ +450
Pact +4.5 v Fnatic @ -110
Pact +4.5 v Fnatic @ -110
Pact +4.5 v Fnatic @ -115

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Americas Betting Picks:

Mibr -4.5 v Yeah @ -125
Mibr -4.5 v Yeah @ -125
Mibr -4.5 v Yeah @ -125
Triumph -3.5 v TeamOne @ -120 with Heritage
Triumph -3.5 v TeamOne @ -115
Triumph -3.5 v TeamOne @ -115

MATCH BETS – June 22

If you believed we had any reprieve from the CS tournament circuit… well I am guessing no one thought this because it has not occurred at any point since March! Tomorrow we begin the final qualifying stages of one of two tournaments running over the next week – CS Summit.

Currently 11 of the best teams in the world hold a spot at the official tourny beginning on the 24th. Another 16 teams will be competing for the five remaining spots. Teams that win tomorrow’s match need only to win their next match to go through. Teams that win the first match but lose the second will be placed into another bracket where the final four teams will compete for the remaining spot rounding out the full 16 for Summit. I should mention this is only for the European side.

On the North American side five teams have already secured a spot; Furia, Liquid, Evil Geniuses, 100 Thieves, and GenG. 8 teams will compete for the final three spots there. All teams in the qualifier begin in the upper-bracket where they need to win two games to make it the event. If a team loses once they move to the lower bracket where those six teams will duke it out for the remaining ticket. So this will be another packed week until it concludes on July 5th. While there was nothing wrong with the Blast and Dreamhack events, I am looking forward to having more than three matches in a day per tournament.

Note that the WePlay Clutch Island tournament will also be running this week from June 23rd to 28th. However the wagers will be included in another piece. This is a CIS exclusive event, which is pretty rare these days. A year ago I had a conversation with a CS personality where I suggested something that is now being put into action for the first time:

For teams which do not get many looks at qualifying for the majors, or simply for adding more importance to the smaller events on the CS calendar, this could be of great benefit. Both events running this week will grant RMR points (Regional Major Rankings). So even for teams, like Natus Vincere who hit rock bottom at the CIS major qualifiers two months ago and received a deduction for a player swap, they have an avenue for catching up from their 5th place position.

About 75% of the teams you should have at least some familiarity with just from the tournaments I’ve been posting the past few months. Some lesser knowns though very common in the MDL, Lootbet, Home Sweet Home class of tournaments are Endpoint, Fate, Pact, Japaleno, Avez, and everyones favorite Sprout (just become a Valorant pro please Spiidi).

All matches in the main bracket of Summit qualifiers will run on Monday, while the final spot deciders are Tuesday. I’ll post those provided the window is manageable and offered by a handful of books.

This is what a typical day’s exposure in CS is for me. Either play all the moneylines and series spread or all the map spreads, or both, but don’t ask me which I ‘like’ the most. I know you can’t see Nordavind or Japaleno or Havu or the Whalers winning…that’s not what its about. GL!

Europe Betting Picks:

Nordavind +1.5 v Fnatic @ +140 with Bookmaker
Nordavind ml v Fnatic @ +530
Nordvind +4.5 v Fnatic @ +100
Nordvind +4.5 v Fnatic @ +100
Nordvind +4.5 v Fnatic @ +100
Heroic -3.5 v Endpoint @ +100
Heroic -3.5 v Endpoint @ +100
Heroic -3.5 v Endpoint @ -110
Fate +1.5 v Dignitas @ +100
Fate ml v Dignitas @ +350
Pact +1.5 v Mad Lions @ +160
Pact ml v Mad Lions @ +650
Pact +4.5 v Mad Lions @ +100
Pact +5.5 v Mad Lions @ -110
Pact +4.5 v Mad Lions @ +100
Contact -2.5 v Avez @ -110
OG -2.5 v Sprout @ -120 [Heritage]
OG -2.5 v Sprout @ -120
OG -2.5 v Sprout @ -120
Japaleno +1.5 v Complexity @ +160
Japaleno ml v Complexity @ +700
Japaleno +5.5 v Complexity @ -120
Japaleno +5.5 v Complexity @ -120
Japaleno +5.5 v Complexity @ -120
Havu +1.5 v Big @ +120
Havu ml v Big @ +400
Havu +4.5 v Big @ -120
Havu +4.5 v Big @ -120
Havu +3.5 v Big @ -110
Contact -2.5 v Avez @ -120
Contact -2.5 v Avez @ -110

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Americas Betting Picks:

Envy -3.5 v TeamOne @ -110
Envy -3.5 v TeamOne @ -110
Envy -3.5 v TeamOne @ -110
Yeah +1.5 v Triumph @ +120
Yeah ml v Triumph @ +450
Yeah +4.5 v Triumph @ -110
Yeah +4.5 v Triumph @ -110
Yeah +4.5 v Triumph @ -120
Chaos +1.5 v Mibr @ +120
Chaos ml v Mibr @ +400
Chaos +4.5 v Mibr @ +100
Chaos +4.5 v Mibr @ +100
Chaos +4.5 v Mibr @ +100
New England Whalers +1.5 v Cloud9 @ +170
New England Whalers ml v Cloud9 @ +600
New England Whalers +5.5 v Cloud9 @ -120
New England Whalers +5.5 v Cloud9 @ -110
New England Whalers +5.5 v Cloud9 @ -110

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