Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Week 1 College Football Picks: Spartans Return Key Starters
Among the various Week 1 college football betting matchups scheduled for Friday night is an in-state battle between Western Michigan and Michigan State. Read on for our top Western Michigan-Michigan State picks.
The last time Western Michigan visited East Lansing for a game in 2019, they lost by 34. Sixth-year head coach Tim Lester will be hoping to avoid a similar outcome on Friday night. To do so, the Broncos will need to lean on their run game and experienced defense.
Michigan State was nowhere to be found in the AP Top 25 at the start of last season. That changed in a big way after the Spartans got off to an 8-0 start. The magical season was capped off with a win in the Peach Bowl. Third-year coach Mel Tucker will have his work cut out trying to replicate last year’s unexpected success.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 1 matchup between Western Michigan and Michigan State (odds via PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Game Info
Date/Time: Friday, Sept. 2, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Weather: 80℉, 7.2% chance of precipitation, 5-to-10-mph winds (blowing south)
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Odds Analysis
The betting public has not been shy about backing Michigan State as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1. Oddsmakers initially offered the Spartans at -19. That number is now long gone with MSU laying anywhere from 22 to 23.5 points across the market.
Public and sharp bettors are aligned in backing the Spartans. However, the public is slightly more on the home side with 75% of the bet slips accounting for a more modest 68% of the handle.
The total has dropped only slightly from 54.5 points to 54. That drop comes despite 84% of the tickets backing the Over while 51% of the cash is on the Under.
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Picks
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
Western Michigan vs. Michigan State Predictions
Michigan State -22 (-110)
Despite the seismic line move in Sparty’s favor, one of the key factors in still electing to lay the points is the returning experience on both sides. Michigan State welcomes back nine starters on defense. It was hardly a dominant unit last season but is poised to improve in 2022. The front seven in particular is likely to be among the best in the Big Ten.
The fact that MSU’s defensive front is very strong could be a massive difference-maker Friday. The departure of Kaleb Eleby means redshirt freshman Jack Salopek is poised to start at quarterback for the Broncos. His mobility will serve him well in the MAC, but it is going to be much more difficult against a Top 25 opponent.
Unlike the Broncos, Michigan State welcomes back starting QB Payton Thorne. The Spartans also count last year’s leading receiver, Jayden Reed, among their five returning offensive starters. Losing Heisman Trophy finalist Kenneth Walker hurts, but Tucker reloaded the backfield with a pair of quality transfers in Jarek Broussard and Jalen Berger.
Provided that Michigan State’s offensive line holds up, the Spartans should be able to win this Week 1 matchup going away.
Over 54 (-110)
Although Michigan State has nine starters returning defensively, it’s worth reminding bettors that this wasn’t exactly a top-tier unit last season. The Spartans played a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense last season. Despite surrendering 442 yards per game (325 through the air), they managed to hold opponents to an average of just 25.3 points.
By all accounts, MSU should be improved defensively with so much returning talent. However, one cannot dismiss Western Michigan’s offense entirely even with the inexperience at quarterback. Salopek will benefit from working behind a solid offensive line. While the Broncos return just two of their own starters, a pair of FCS transfers help boost the outlook up front.
Of course, it’s no secret that Western Michigan wants to run the football early and often. The Broncos have both Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson back in the fold for 2022. The tandem fell just shy of 2,000 yards combined on the ground a year ago. Not only that, but both players were fairly successful last year in two tough Power 5 matchups against Michigan and Pittsburgh.
It’s quite plausible that Western Michigan will be able to move the ball and score between 14 and 20 points in this game. This along with Sparty’s own offensive production should be enough to push the game Over the total.
1st Quarter Total: Over 12.5 (-105)
Western Michigan managed to score three touchdowns in the first quarter of its games against Michigan and Pitt last year. One could argue that even a field goal from the Broncos in the opening 15 minutes on Friday would be enough to help push this first-quarter total Over 12.5.
With an experienced quarterback, plenty of talent at receiver, and a pair of quality transfers in the backfield, Michigan State should be able to impose its will offensively. The Spartans have to be considered good for at least one touchdown drive, if not more, in the first quarter.
Another variable that could come into play early in the game is the inexperience of Salopek under center for WMU. Nerves could very well lead to an early giveaway that helps set Sparty up with a short field.
Where to Bet on Western Michigan vs. Michigan State
SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.
Western Michigan-Michigan State picks made 8/31/2022 at 7:17 p.m. ET
Related Articles
