West Virginia vs. Baylor College Football Picks: Bears Will Cover ATS Easily

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 15, 2015 12:14 AM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015 12:14 AM UTC

The West Virginia Mountaineers visit the Baylor Bears in a Big 12 Conference matchup in which we serve our Crusher of the Week college football pick.

West Virginia vs. Baylor (-21), Saturday, October 17, Noon ET FX TV
West Virginia travels to Baylor to meet the Bears in this Big 12 Conference matchup.  When these teams played last year, West Virginia won the game in Morgantown by a score of 41-27.  It was easily the Bears’ worst offensive performance of the year (they gained at least 545 YPG in all but one other game).  Most importantly, it turned out to be the Bears’ lone regular season loss and the game that kept them from making the Final Four.  To say this qualifies as a painful, memory revenge game would be a vast understatement.

 Since opening week, the Bears have been ranked in the Top 3 in the nation, playing every game with passion and intensity.  There will be no missteps as there were last year at WVU.  In every game, Baylor has totaled at least 644 yards in offense and at least 56 points.  Admittedly, this is the toughest defense they have faced in the first 6 games.  WVU is allowing just 20 PPG on 342 YPG.  The first 3 games for the Mounties were at home against outmanned opposition.  The last 2 weeks have seen the Mounties allow 77 points to Big 12 foes, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.  That Oklahoma (44-24) loss was their only road game of the year.  A bad omen was that it featured 3 INTs by starting QB Howard.  Now, Howard must face a Baylor defense which has improved in its own right, allowing just 22 PPG, 364 YPG, only 3.1 YPR and 59% completions.  

While Baylor has been devouring a slate of mostly creampuffs, one cannot ignore two key factors.  First, the Bears’ No. 1 ranked offense is averaging at least 358 YPG, both running and passing the ball and an unconscious 9.1 YP play.  Last week, they led Kansa 52-7 at the half.  Much like other games, they eased up against these outmanned opponents in the 2nd half.  There will be no such mercy today.  In their 2 home games to date, Baylor has averaged 68 PPG and 791 YPG.  That’s not unusual for a Baylor team who plays their best on this field, where they stand 12-3 ATS as home favorite.     

Quite simply, WVU is in the wrong place at the wrong time this Saturday.  Expect the Bears to show no mercy and easily cover the 21 point college football odds in what will be the clear choice as my college football pick as the Crusher of the Week.  This victory will extend the College Football Crusher of the Week to 5-1 ATS as part of our CFB and NFL group of Crushers, Lone Ranger Plays and Big Dog Plays that are 20-9-1 ATS the last 5 weeks.

College Football Picks: Baylor -21 at Pinnacle

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