Week 9 Steamroller NCAAF Pick for Georgia Southern vs. Georgia St.

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 23, 2014 8:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2014 8:21 PM UTC

Here is Week 9's Steamroller edition, where this time we take a look at the Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State matchup. Find out where the best lean is for our College Football picks.

This week’s lead article in my Pointspread Prognosis Newsletter outlines the parameters for 200 Club Members. It is a must read if you are a statistical handicapper. But, explosive balanced offense is only 1 of the ways in which I isolate my CFB Steamroller selections which have won over 60% of the time since being instituted some 25 years ago. The other way in which I isolate these winning selections is to focus on the dominance at the point of attack. In tracking statistical outcomes since the year 2000, I have found that whenever one CFB team outrushes another by a greater than 2 to 1 margin, that team has covered the pointspread an amazing 75% of the time. In fact, in the last 4+ seasons, this record is 1,073-370 ATS, just shy of the long-term 75% winning action. It is this handicapping theory which I put into action as we take to the fast indoor track of the Georgia Dome for this week’s winning steamroller selection.   

Today’s combatants, Georgia Southern and Georgia State, are new members of the Sun Belt conference. Georgia State is led by 2nd year HC Trent Miles. As recently as 2008, Georgia St. began their football program under legendary HC Bill Curry. By 2010, they were fielding a football team as a FCS Independent. The previous 2 seasons, they played as members of the Colonial conference.  Success has been hard to come by for the Panthers, who have gone 1-22 SU in those 2 years. This season, they fielded just 9 RS with just 58% returning lettermen. The step to the Sun Belt is a more comfortable fit. Nonetheless, this team has lost 6 consecutive games after defeating lowly Abilene Christian 38-37 in their opener. In their most recent home game against an elite member of the Sun Belt, they lost 52-10 to Arkansas St. Georgia Southern is a far more-experienced program. In the last 4 years under former HC Monken, Southern had a record of 38-16 SU. With 15 RS this year and lots of experience in the OL and RB positions, there was reason to believe they could be successful at the Sun Belt level under 1st year HC Fritz. After all, the bread and butter of this team was a ground attack that in each of the previous 2 years had rushed for 360/6.3 or better. That is expected against the Savanah States of the world. But, when the Eagles closed out the 2013 season with a 26-20 victory at Florida (as +28) and rushed 54 times for 429 yards, the buy signal was flashed. Though picked by many in the lower echelon of the Sun Belt, the Eagles quickly proved they were far better than that.        

The linemaker was quick to make adjustments after Georgia Southern’s 5-0 SU ATS start. Though 2 defeats dot their resume, note those were by a combined 5 points at ACC pedigree, GA Tech and NC State. After defeating Idaho 47-24, they have a week of rest for a stretch run which shows a potential path to the Sun Belt crown, as neither, Arkansas St. nor LA Lafayette, dot the schedule. In this first meeting ever of in-state rivals, look for the Eagles to steamroll their rival.  Southern is the top rushing team in the nation at 375/7.1. How do you think that plays out against a Georgia St. defense that allows 241/5.2 overland? With the advantage of the fast track of the Georgia Dome as an ally, look for the Eagles to soar to an easy 3+ TD victory for our College Football picks. Remember to always place your bet at a trustworthy sportsbook like 5Dimes.

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