Week 9 College Football Betting Recap: What Do the Numbers Say?

free ncaaf picks and predictions

Jay Pryce

Sunday, October 29, 2017 1:04 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 29, 2017 1:04 PM GMT

The betting favorites in one Power 5 conference came up short across the board in Week 9. Find out which one here, and gain insight into other notable trends, achievements, and factoids from the market in this action recap.

Backing favorites proved a poor decision in Big Ten competition this week. Not one covered the spread, going 0-6 overall with Iowa and Minnesota pushing a touchdown in a 17-10 Hawkeyes victory. Its the first time since the final week of the 2013 regular season chalk has come up empty versus the number in conference play. Three favorites lost outright (Indiana, No. 16 Michigan State, and Purdue), while No. 6 Ohio State needed its largest rally every (18 points) under head coach Urban Meyer to nip No. 2 Penn State 39-38 as 6.5-point chalk at The Shoe.

Week 9 Betting Trends

Number of outright underdog winners: 16

Average line among underdog winners: +6.9

Underdogs went 28-23-3 ATS

Visitors went 28-23-3 ATS as well

‘Overs’ went 28-27-1. 'Unders' dominate the season, going 314-251-12 overall.

Away dogs proved most profitable in Week 9, going 16-10-3 ATS. Eight won outright at a 10.2 average line

Arizona was this week’s offensive juggernaut, scoring 26.8 points above its projected team total. The Wildcats topped No. 15 Washington State 58-37 as 1.5-point chalk with a 64 game total.

Fresno State, meanwhile, proved flattest, putting up 23.5 points less than expected in its 26-16 home loss to UNLV. The Bulldogs went off 21.5-point favorites with a 57.5 game total. Fresno State had scored 27 points or more in each of its four Mountain West showdowns prior.

Money Line Stunners

UNLV +900 vs. Fresno St. (26-16)

Florida International +500 vs. Marshall (41-30)

UAB +375 vs. Southern Miss. (30-12)

Houston +300 vs. No. 17 South Florida (28-24)

Air Force +295 vs. Colorado State (45-28)

Public Lashings

Kansas State received roughly 78 percent of ATS bets across multiple top-rated online sportsbooks in its 30-20 win over rivals Kansas Saturday. The Wildcats failed to cover 24.5 points offered up before kickoff. It's just the second time in the last 17 meetings the Jayhawks have beaten the number when catching 4 points or more.

No. 8 Miami needed 17 second-half points to scrape together an ugly 24-19 win over North Carolina and remain undefeated on the season. The public backed the Hurricanes laying three touchdowns with nearly 73 percent of ATS tickets. Miami's 12 straight wins is the longest in the FBS. It's 8-4 ATS during the run, dropping the last three in a row.

No. 5 Wisconsin failed to cover a whopping 29.5 points in its 24-10 win at Illinois, disappointing 75 percent of backers. The Badgers have dropped four of five in the series when gifting more than 20 points on the betting odds boards.

The betting public fretted through three overtime periods before ripping up their tickets in Northwestern's 39-31 win over No. 16 Michigan State. About 71 percent of bettors laid 2 points behind the Spartans. Michigan State has covered the spread once in its last seven conference road tests.

Notable Stats, Trends, & More

No. 6 Ohio State's 18-point comeback win over No. 2 Penn State is the largest under head coach Urban Meyer. The Nittany Lions jumped out to a 35-17 lead early in the third quarter, only to lose 39-38 after the Buckeyes rallied for 19 in the final period. Ohio State is now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus opponents with a better ranking.

No. 25 Iowa State has beaten two AP Top-5 teams in October following its 14-7 home win against No. 4 TCU. LSU was the last to accomplish the feat in 2011. The Cyclones win over the Horned Frogs was just their second against a ranked opponent at Jack Trice Stadium in the last 24 played.

All six home teams in Conference USA matchups (Marshall, North Texas, Rice, Southern Miss., UTEP, and Western Kentucky) failed to cover the spread in Week 9, playing -11.4 points below a -0.2 average line.

New Mexico committed 7 turnovers in its 42-3 loss at Wyoming. The Lobos kicked off 1.5-point pups for the game. It's the most turnovers for the program in a single game since coughing up five at rivals New Mexico State in 2010.

Arizona and No. 15 Washington State combined for 877 passing yards, the second most in a FBS contest this season. Nevada and Colorado State tallied 892 in Week 7.

View Our Other NCAAF Betting Update: 5 Betworthy Things We Learned in CFB Week 9

comment here