Week 8 NCAAF Line Mover: Army Marches Over Miami-Ohio

Friday, October 19, 2018 11:27 AM UTC

Friday, Oct. 19, 2018 11:27 AM UTC

The Army Knights are big favorites this Saturday over the Miami-Ohio RedHawks – but not as big as they were when the Week 8 college football odds first hit the board.

<p style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record through Week 7: 11-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-2 Totals</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/miami-(oh)-redhawks-vs-army-black-knights-3448393/odds/" rel="nofollow" title="Game Odds">Miami-Ohio vs. Army</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, West Point (CBSSN)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NCAAF Pick: Knights</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line Offered: <a href="http://https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" title="Top-Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448393, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,238,999991,169], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>It’s like pickin’ cherries off a tree. Once again, our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/week-7-ncaaf-line-movers-take-ball-state-over-central-michigan/87094/" rel="nofollow" title="More Picks">featured line mover</a> took the college football odds to the woodshed: The Ball State Cardinals did David Letterman proud and beat the Central Michigan Chippewas 24-23 as 2.5-point road dogs. That’s 6-1 ATS after seven games of scanning the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" rel="nofollow" title="Check the Odds">NCAAF odds board</a> for late-week betting value. And there was much rejoicing.<br /><br />This week, it’s the Army Black Knights (4-2 SU, 4-1-1 ATS) getting ready to host the Miami-Ohio RedHawks (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS), and the lines for this matchup are running away from Army like the Crusaders ran away from the Hussites at the Battle of Domažlice in 1431. The Knights were 11.5-point favorites when the odds for Saturday first hit the board; they’re 7.5-point favorites as we go to press. Let the bloodshed commence.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>A Case of the Zips</strong></h2><p>As always, we start with the projections for Saturday’s game and how they match up with the odds:</p><ul> <li><strong>ESPN Football Power Index:</strong> Army 81.9 percent</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Moneyline (using <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/" title="Odds Converter">SBR Odds Converter</a>):</strong> Army –452</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Point Spread (via Wizard of Odds):</strong> Army –13</li></ul><p>Well now. What is it about the Knights that has people scrambling in the opposite direction? Maybe it’s more about what they see in the RedHawks: offense, and plenty of it. After a horrible start to the season, Miami-Ohio have covered four straight games, scoring at least 30 points every time. They even dumped the Akron Zips 41-17 as 5-point road dogs. Nice.</p><p style="text-align:center;">[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/H3O6r-Z3M4A", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]</p><h2><strong>A Terror in the Fray</strong></h2><p>Be that as it may, the RedHawks still don’t measure up to Army. Football Outsiders have the Knights ranked No. 56 on their F/+ Combined Ratings through Week 7, and No. 35 on the S&amp;P+ offensive charts. Miami checks in at No. 67 and No. 96, respectively. This isn’t Ben Roethlisberger’s Hawks anymore.<br /><br />It also isn’t the same Army team that kept getting their helmets handed to them in the Army-Navy Game. Jeff Monken has worked wonders with this program since taking the reins in 2014; he knows the triple-option cold, having worked under Paul Johnson at both Navy and Georgia Tech – and even before that, at Georgia Southern. Go figure, the Knights are second in the FBS behind the Yellow Jackets (and ahead of the Midshipmen) at 313.50 rushing yards per game.</p><p>As for the RedHawks, beating up on MAC teams is fine and dandy, but the Mid-American ranks No. 10 out of the 11 FBS conferences (including Independents as a group) at Sports Reference, ahead of only Conference USA. Army are plus-11.55 on the Simple Rating System; the best the MAC can offer are the Buffalo Bulls at plus-5.75, and Miami haven’t played them yet. We’re putting the Knights in our Week 8 <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" rel="nofollow" title="More NCAAF Picks">college football picks</a>, thank you kindly. Rah! Rah! Rah! Boom!</p>
comment here