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Week 7 NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks

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Week 7 NCAAF Last Chance Value Picks
Michael Penix Jr. #9 of the Indiana Hoosiers. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

Each week we look for premium lines at all of the major online sportsbooks and go bargain hunting for the best value on the college football board. Let’s see what this Saturday brings us in terms of betting opportunities and cash with our college football picks!

Michigan State Spartans vs. Indiana Hoosiers 

Saturday, October 16, 2021 – 12:00 PM EDT at Memorial Stadium

The college football odds at all of the best online sportsbooks have moved off of the three and as high as Michigan State -4 ½ which bodes well for those of us looking for value on a live home dog-like Indiana.

Look, MSU has become the darling of college football with a 6-0 straight up record and a 4-0-2 ATS mark (could be 6-0 ATS if you got the best numbers), which always means there will be a deluge of public money on them. That, and Hoosiers’ starting quarterback, Michael Penix Jr. could be out due to injury which means Jack Tuttle will be under center. The operative word here is could.

However, Indiana is a better team than their 2-3 record insists and if we look at the Spartans’ defense, we see that their run-stop unit is decent enough, currently allowing 117.8 yards per game (35th) but their pass defense is porous, surrendering a whopping 302.3 yards per contest. Now I’m not saying that Indiana’s passing offense is All-World but getting 4 ½ at home against a conference rival is valued and that’s why we’re here.

Lastly, let’s also consider that Michigan State has a date with Michigan next week and if there is one game on their schedule that they could overlook, it’s the one this Saturday.

NCAAF Pick: Indiana +4 ½ (-110)

Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas Longhorns 

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 12:00 PM EDT at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium

The Longhorns opened as 5 ½ point favorites but that number has dropped to -4 as of this late writing. Texas is coming off of a 55-48 loss to Oklahoma while Oklahoma State is a perfect 5-0 straight up and has covered in their last three games. They look like a live dog to the betting public and it’s hard to disagree.

However, laying four at home with a team like Texas looks like value to us. After all, they have one of the nation’s best rushing attacks, led by sophomore tailback Bijan Robinson, and are averaging over 245 yards per game.

That’s enough to smother any defense, keep the chains moving, and ground-and-pound a victory. However, to be fair the Cowboys have a decent run-stop unit but I’ll take my chances with the Horns in this one.

NCAAF Pick: Texas -4 (-110)

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats

Saturday, October 16, 2021 - 07:30 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium

Iowa State has been excellent at dismantling lousy teams as evidenced by their 48-3 thrashing of UNLV as 32-point favorites and 59-7 waxing of Kansas as 34 ½ point home chalk. But there was a game wedged in between the two, a 31-29 loss to a decent Baylor team in which the Cyclones were installed as 6 ½ point road favorites.

Running back Breece Hall #28 of the Iowa State Cyclones. Chris Unger/Getty Images/AFP

This game feels eerily similar to that one and we are now getting an identical 6 ½ point head start after this game opened at Iowa State -4 ½ at some shops very early in the week. Kansas State had a gritty performance last week but ultimately lost, 37-31, to powerhouse Oklahoma. I think they can hang and bang with the Cyclones here, especially at this number and if you are someone who likes a trend or two then take a look at these:

  • Cyclones are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Cyclones are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +6 ½ (-108)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.