After several winning weeks we had a dip in production last week by going 1-2 ATS in our Last Chance Value picks but this week we see new opportunities to beat the books at their own game. Let’s start cashing!
Pittsburgh (+9 ½ to +14) vs. Miami
Saturday, October 17th, 12 pm ET at Hard Rock Stadium
Pittsburgh might be 3-2 straight up this season but they have not been kind to those backing the Panthers in their college football picks this season. After five games, Pittsburgh has covered the number in only one of them and last week was more of the same after they fell to Boston College, 31-30, as 6 ½ point road favorites.
However, eventually, the sportsbooks account for things like this, anticipating that the public will be fading them. This number has spiked from Miami laying 9 ½ to as high as -14 over at Heritage due in at least some part to the uncertain status of Pittsburgh’s senior signal-caller, Kenny Pickett, who injured his ankle in the second half of last week’s game against BC.
But let’s not forget that Miami got owned last week by Clemson and could be taking the Panthers for granted. Nevertheless, I think Pickett will play based on the comments by his head coach, Pat Narduzzi, and even if he doesn’t the Cats have a decent running game that should be able to chew up the clock and allow them to hang tough against the Hurricanes.
Louisville (+14 to +17) vs. Notre Dame
Saturday, October 17th, 2:30 pm ET at Notre Dame Stadium
The Cardinals are not a very appealing team to bet on as they are in the midst of their longest losing streak since 2018, after dropping three straight and allowing over 38 points per game in those losses. Therefore, it’s not particularly difficult to understand why this line has drifted from 14 to 17 since the opener earlier this week.
But we should take into consideration that Notre Dame has not played any of the top tier teams and are, in fact, just 1-2 against the number, after playing the likes of Duke (1-4), South Florida (1-3), and FSU (1-3). While no one will confuse Louisville with a national contender, the Cardinals are a better team than any the Irish have faced this season.
Their defense has been porous lately but their offense is capable of so much better. This will be a closer game than most people suspect which is why the college football odds on this matchup are so appealing, especially with the additional three extra points we will be getting with the Cardinals.
Georgia vs. Alabama (-7 to -4 ½)
Saturday, October 17th, 8:00 pm ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium
This is Saturday’s marquee matchup which features SEC and nationally ranked powerhouses No. 3 Georgia versus No. 2 Alabama throwing down in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide has won the last five meetings against Georgia and owns the nation's No. 1 offense, averaging 51 points per game.
However, the big question mark is an uncharacteristic weak spot for Nick Saban’s team – the defense. Alabama notched a win over former Saban assistant Lane Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad last week in a 63-48 shootout. There were rumors Kiffin knew the defensive plays as they were being called, but nonetheless, Bama’s defense looked bewildered throughout.
Georgia boasts the best overall defense in the nation, currently tops in rushing defense (38.3 yards per game), No. 2 in total defense (236.7), and tied for fifth in points allowed (12.3 points per game). But they haven’t faced a team like Alabama this season and if we’re choosing between a bona fide blue-chip commodity like Mac Jones of Alabama under center and an upstart, bolt out of the blue, in 5’11” Stetson Bennett out of Georgia, there is no comparison.
Let’s take what the oddsmakers are giving us and get down on Bama -4 ½. It’s excellent value considering we have crossed two critical numbers (7 and 6) in what could very well be a double-digit win for the Tide.