Week 6 Top Totals: Expect Defensive Battle in Wake-Clemson

clemson wake forest

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 12:56 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 12:56 PM GMT

Here’s a trio of top totals picks for Week 6, with predictions for the Ole Miss-Auburn, Georgia-Vanderbilt, and Wake Forest-Clemson matchups.

Ole Miss at No. 12 Auburn (56.5)

The Auburn offense is clicking, having scored 100 points in its last two games. That’s 30 more than projected in the betting market. In most scenarios, it’s wise to approach an overachieving unit like this with caution as the team is primed to retreat to the mean. That’s not the case here.

Ole Miss has given up. The program is wrought with turmoil, turnover and is bowl ineligible due to NCAA sanctions. The defense has surrendered 34 points or more in four of its last five divisional road games dating back to the start of last season. The Tigers amassed over 500 yards against the Rebels in a 40-29 win in Oxford last year. The damage will be uglier in this meeting.

The ‘over’ is 4-1 behind head coach Gus Malzahn when Auburn lays a touchdown or more against SEC foes at Jordan-Hare Stadium against defenses yielding greater than 26 points per game. Ole Miss enters allowing 40.0 per game, 118th nationally. The Tigers put up 47.8 points per game in this spot, scoring 40 or more in all but one. The average score is 47.8-18.4. Don’t be surprised if the Tigers score 49 points or more for the third week in a row.

NCAAF Free Pick: Over 56.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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No. 5 Georgia at Vanderbilt (41)

Since 1980, Vanderbilt averages 16.0 points vs. Georgia. In fact, it has scored more than 17 just twice in the annual matchup over the last 10 years.

Commodores quarterback Kyle Shurmur is the best signal-caller the team has fielded in years, but the offense is flawed. Vandy has yet to rush for more than 75 yards against an FBS opponent all season. Coach Derek Mason is forced to go to the air too often, creating a one-dimensional attack the Bulldogs will bite. Expect more offensive woes in this one, but not as bad as last week.

The Vandy defense is stout and should not let Georgia run away with the contest. Don’t read too much into the 59 points it surrendered against No. 1 Alabama last week. That was a David vs. Goliath matchup, and the unit was way overworked with the offense held to a record-setting low 3 first downs and 78 total yards. A little better production will help the defense rebound in this one.

The ‘under’ is 7-1 when Vandy hosts an SEC opponent at home with a total south of 50 points behind Mason. The average game score is 24-9 in this spot. The Bulldogs may reach 30 points here, but another lackluster effort by Shurmur and crew keeps the number under the total. A few online sportsbooks are dangling a total of 42 points.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 41Best Line Offered: Bovada

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Wake Forest at No. 2 Clemson (47.5)

The Clemson defense deserves every bit of praise it receives from the media. This unit, particularly the front seven, is dynamite. It allows 3.7 yards per play, fourth-best nationally. It’s surrendered 21 points or fewer in every game this season despite squaring off against two potent attacks in Louisville and Auburn.

Wake Forest, although improved offensively, offers little threat at Death Valley on Saturday. Reaching 10 points will be a victory for the unit. The Demon Deacons defense is just talented enough, however, to keep the Tigers tame on the other side of the ball. In the last three matchups, it’s yielded 34, 33, and 35 points.

Since 2006, the ‘under’ is 16-4 when Clemson kicks off at home in a divisional matchup with a total less than 50 points. Look for another low-scoring winner behind the Tigers stellar defense here.

Free NCAAF Pick: Under 47.5Best Line Offered: Heritage

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