Week 6 Picks: Georgia Bulldogs vs Vanderbilt Commodores

Georgia Bulldogs players in action

David Schwab

Wednesday, October 4, 2017 5:35 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 4, 2017 5:35 PM GMT

The No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs take the next step in pursuit of the SEC’s East Division title with this Saturday’s road game against the Vanderbilt Commodores. Join expert capper as he delivers his best college football pick for this game.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs at Vanderbilt Commodores

Pointspread: Georgia -17.5
Total Line: 40.5

The Bulldogs continued their climb up the national rankings with an impressive 41-0 shutout against Tennessee last week as 10-point road favorites. This was fresh off another solid outing in which they dismantled Mississippi State 31-3 as 2.5-point favorites at home to stake their claim as a legitimate College Football Playoff contender. Georgia has also been a solid betting team at 4-1 against the spread with the total staying UNDER in four games with a posted NCAAF betting line.

Georgia’s offense continues to do most of its damage on the ground with an average of 237.4 rushing yards per game as opposed to a passing game that is averaging just 149.6 yards a game. Nick Chubb has led the way with 480 rushing yards and six touchdowns on 75 carries. The other reason why the Bulldogs are No. 5 in the nation is a relentless defense that is only giving up an average of 9.2 points per game.

The Commodores come into this East Division matchup at 3-2 SU with a 2-3 record ATS following last Saturday’s 38-24 loss to Florida as nine-point road underdogs. They opened play in the SEC by getting pounded by Alabama 59-0 as 19.5-point underdogs at home. The total went OVER in both of those games after staying UNDER in two of three nonconference games with a posted total line.

This could actually be one of the better Vanderbilt teams in recent years despite its early setbacks in conference play. Junior quarterback Kyle Shurmur has thrown for 985 yards and 11 touchdowns against just one interception. He has completed at least one pass to 12 different players led by the duo of Trent Sherfield and CJ Duncan who have combined for 36 catches for 463 yards and two scores. Kalija Lipscomb has nine receptions with four going for touchdowns. Vanderbilt’s defense has also helped the cause by allowing an average of just 22 PPG.
 

Betting Trends

--The Bulldogs have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five road games and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with an SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in its last six conference games.

--The Commodores are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss, but they have failed to cover in nine of their last 10 home games against a team with an SU winning record on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 10 October games.

--Head-to-head in this SEC tilt, the underdog has covered the spread in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games between the two.
 

Final Prediction

The Bulldogs have to be wary of a letdown on the road this week coming off two huge wins, but the gap in talent between these two teams is just too wide to keep things closer than three touchdowns over the course of all four quarters. Revenge is also a huge factor following last season’s SU loss. Based on the betting lines, my NCAAF pick in this one is Georgia covering the 17.5-point spread.

 

Free NCAAF Pick: Georgia -17.5 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187934, "sportsbooksIds":[238,43,1096,123,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here