Week 6 NCAAF Marquee Game: Tight Lines for Georgia-LSU

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 9, 2018 11:55 AM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 9, 2018 11:55 AM UTC

The No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs opened as 7-point road favorites for Saturday’s gigantic SEC matchup with the No. 13 LSU Tigers. Those NCAAF odds look just about right.

Jason’s record through Week 6: 10-6 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-1 Totals

No. 2 Georgia at No. 13 Louisiana StateSaturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Baton Rouge (CBS)Free NCAAF Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: BetOnline

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We’ve finally reached the meat of the SEC schedule. These next four weeks will go a long way toward determining who will make it into the College Football Playoff – especially for the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS). They’ve got four straight games coming up against ranked teams, starting this Saturday with the No. 13 LSU Tigers (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS). This is going to be a doozy.

Too bad these college football odds aren’t giving us much room for profit. Georgia opened as a 7-point road favorite, and they’re still –7 at press time, with the early consensus reports showing a slight 53-percent lean toward the Bulldogs. You can get LSU at +7.5 if you shop around, but only if you’re willing to pay the –125 vigorish, and 15 cents is just too damn high for that extra half-point.

Bulldog Mentality

Not that it matters much if the stat nerds are correct. FiveThirtyEight have started doing projections for the top teams in college football; they have Georgia beating LSU 70 percent of the time, the equivalent of Georgia –233 according to the infallible SBR Odds Converter. Wizard of Odds says that’s somewhere between Georgia –7 and –7.5 for a vig-free point spread.

ESPN’s Football Power Index likes the Bulldogs a little more, giving them a 73.9-percent chance to win, which bumps their kayfabe spread up to –9. FiveThirtyEight’s projections actually have the FPI formula baked into them; they also run 20,000 rest-of-season simulations, twice as many as FPI if I’m not mistaken. For funsies, let’s try the Simple Rating System at Sports Reference. They have Georgia on top of the FBS at plus-42.30 SRS, and the Tigers ninth overall at plus-35.40 SRS, so that’s only a 7-point difference on a neutral field, which Tiger Stadium definitely is not. Hmmph.

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Add @dannykanell to this list of talking out of both sides of his mouth. Calling LSU fools gold. Is cbs trash talking us because they dont understand the value of Saturday night football? Looking forward to Saturday now... #GeauxTigers

— Christopher Douglas (@FlyingNCMBA) October 3, 2018
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Nowhere to Run

Stat-wise, we’re generally inclined to go with FiveThirtyEight’s projections – as are the oddsmakers, evidently. But we still need to recommend something for your Week 7 college football picks, and as we often do here at the ranch, we’re going with the UNDER as a back-up plan. The total for Saturday’s game is 51 points at press time, up from 50.5 at the open. Every half-point counts.

It helps that the LSU offense isn’t moving the chains on the regular. The Tigers have the No. 49-ranked offense in the FBS, using the S&P+ numbers at Football Outsiders. The Florida Gators sacked QB Joe Burrow five times last week en route to a 27-19 victory (UNDER 44); Georgia’s defense is a little less imposing, checking in at No. 19 overall to Florida’s No. 11, and the Bulldogs only have six sacks on the season, but that’s more a product of Georgia’s emphasis on stuffing the run – which is LSU’s bread and butter. We’ll buy that for a Guyanese dollar.

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