Week 6 College Football Preview with Joe Lisi

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Joe Lisi

Thursday, October 5, 2017 5:57 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 5:57 PM GMT

Joe Lisi finds value on the betting lines for four different Week 6 college football matchups. 

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Iowa State vs. Oklahoma 

Line: Oklahoma -28.0  

Since 2011, Oklahoma is 6-0 over the Cyclones and have won those games by 27.3 points per game. Oklahoma has won 18 straight games over the Cyclones with the last loss coming on October 20th, 1990 (33-31).  

Iowa State is averaging 32 points per game and is passing for 295.0 yards per game and rushing for 113.0 yards per game on the ground.  

Jacob Park struggled last week in the home loss to Texas (24 of 48 passes, 246 yards, TD & 3 INT’s) which cost his team field position along with having the opportunity to score points against the Longhorns.   

On the year, Park has completed 61% of his passes for 1,181 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.  

Iowa State should be very aggressive in this game playing on the road in Norman against the Sooners. They are a team that is looking for bowl eligibility this season and should be ready for battle against the top-ranked Sooners.  

The Cyclones enter this game allowing 116 rushing yards to opposing offenses and yielding 264.0 passing yards to opposing offenses. The defense has created turnovers and enters this game +3 in turnover margin.  

On the other hand, Oklahoma is coming off a bye week and has the Red River Rivalry game with Texas the following week.  

This is a critical game for Oklahoma because of their new head coach Lincoln Riley. Riley is a new coach that must prepare his team after a long layoff and this could play into this match-up. The most important aspect of coming out of a bye week is to maintain focus and cohesiveness on the offensive line along with the quarterback to wide receiver relationship in regards to the passing game.  

Oklahoma is averaging 48.0 points per game and is rushing for 205 yards per game along with passing for 399.0 yards per game through the air.  

Wide receivers Jeff Badet, CeeDee Lamb, Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews have combined for 55 receptions for 1,043 yards with 7 touchdowns They will look to challenge the Cyclones defense vertically in this game and force Iowa State into a high scoring game.  

Oklahoma is allowing 134 rushing yards per game and is giving up 198 passing yards to opposing offenses this season.  

The Sooners will look to pressure Park into quick throws underneath coverage and challenge and Iowa State offensive line that has given up 5 total sacks through the first four games.  

Iowa State should be able to move the football on Oklahoma’s defense and Matt Campbell is a solid game planner in big games. Look for the Cyclones to keep this game close throughout Saturday afternoon in Norman.  

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Arkansas vs. South Carolina 
Line: Arkansas -2.0  

Keys to the Game: 

Arkansas is coming off of a 42-24 win over New Mexico State in Fayetteville this past Saturday, while the Gamecocks lost in College Station to Texas A&M by a score of 24-17.  

Arkansas was very balanced last week passing for 264 yards and rushing for 230 yards in the home win against the Aggies. The offense was solid on converting third downs last week (9 of 13) and is converting 50% of their third downs this season.  

The Razorbacks are rushing for 205 yards per game and are passing for 203 yards per game with quarterback Austin Allen.  

Allen has completed 58% of his passes for 766 yards with 7 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this season. He has struggled with inconsistency due to the lack of protection from the offensive line. Offensive coordinator Dan Enos has been very predictable on first and second downs and must be more aggressive on the road in Columbia this weekend.  

Defensively, Arkansas is giving up 203 passing yards per game and is yielding 142 rushing yards to opposing offenses. Arkansas needs to force South Carolina into long third downs to put the pressure on South Carolina quarterback, Jake Bentley, to make plays over the top of their secondary.  

Arkansas is +2 in turnover margin and is allowing opposing offenses to convert 44% of their third downs this year.  

South Carolina enters this game averaging 22 points per game and is a one-dimensional offense that cannot run the football consistently. The Gamecocks are passing for 251 yards per game and are rushing for only 84 yards per game this season.  

The Gamecocks rushed for 23 yards last week in College Station and forced Bentley to make plays over the top of the Aggies secondary. South Carolina managed to convert only 2 of 13 third down attempts in last week’s loss.  

Bentley enters this game 62% of his passes for 1,257 yards with 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions.  

Defensively, the Gamecocks are giving up 153 rushing yards per game and are yielding 253 passing yards to opposing offenses. In back to back SEC games against Kentucky and Texas A&M, the defensive front seven has worn down in run support.  

The Gamecocks allowed the Wildcats to rush for 184 yards and the Aggies to rush for 237 yards last week. Now they must face another “heavy” offensive line in the Razorbacks that could allow the Razorbacks to control the time of possession and keep Bentley and the offense on the sidelines 

South Carolina is allowing opposing offenses to convert 45% of their third-down attempts this season.  

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Kansas State vs. Texas 
Line: Texas -3.5   

Keys to the Game: 

Kansas State is 3-2 over the Longhorns since 2012 and have won those games by 14.6 points per game. The Wildcats won last year in Manhattan by a score of 24-21.  

This game comes down the rushing game of the Wildcats and the front seven of the Longhorns. Kansas State is rushing for 229 yards per game and is passing for 179 yards per game through the air this season.  

Texas has been playing very well in run support since their blowout loss to Maryland in which they gave up 262 yards in the week one loss to the Terps.  

In games against San Jose State (42 rush yds), USC (71)  and Iowa State (10) the defense has allowed a total of 123 rushing yards or 41.0 yards per game.  

The ability for Texas to shut down the run, has forced opposing offenses into long third-down conversions and given the Longhorns the ability to force three and outs for their offense. Texas is holding opposing offenses to 28% on their third-down situations and will look to force Kansas State quarterback, Jesse Ertz, to beat them over the top.  

Ertz has been an inconsistent passer when forced to make his reads and progressions this season and is completed 52% of his passes for 706 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  

On the other hand, Texas enters this game averaging 178 rushing yards per game and passing for 265 yards per game this season.  

Kansas State has given up 205 passing yards to Vanderbilt and 295 passing to Baylor in back to back games. Texas has the speed at wide receiver to challenge the Wildcats secondary which could open up big plays for the running game later in the contest.  

Texas quarterback, Shane Beuchele, enters this game completing 67% of his passes for 546 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He played very well on the road last week in Ames, completing 73% of his passes for 171 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception.  

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Ole Miss vs. Auburn
Line: Auburn -22.5 

Keys to the Game: 

Auburn has won 3 of the last 5 over the Rebels and have won those games by 7.6 points per game. The Tigers have LSU in Death Valley deck and could be looking ahead to that match-up this coming weekend.  

The key to this game is the ability for Ole Miss to challenge the Tigers into a high scoring game and forcing Auburn out of running the football.  

Ole Miss is coming off an embarrassing road loss to Alabama 66-3 in which the team looked lethargic and out of sync offensively. This will be back to back road games in the state of Alabama for the Rebels.  

Entering this game, Ole Miss is passing for 361.0 yards per game is rushing for 74.0 yards per game. Quarterback Shea Patterson has completed 66% of his passes for 1,446 yards with 11 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.  

Patterson has spread the ball around to four receivers and one running back that have caught over 10 passes each this season. A.J Brown, DeMarkus Lodge, D.K Metcalf, Vann Jefferson and Jordan Wilkins have caught a combined 83 passes for 1,275 yards with 11 touchdowns.  

Two concerns for Ole Miss offensively are third downs (34%) and the offensive line that has allowed 13 sacks through the first four games (3.2 sacks per game). The Rebels must be to throw the short to intermediate routes in the flat to neutralize the Tigers pass rush and get Patterson into a rhythm early on in this contest.  

Defensively, Ole Miss only has 3 total sacks through the first four games and must be able to get pressure on Jarett Stidham in this contest. Ole Miss is giving up 35 points per game and is allowing 229 rushing yards per game along with 200 passing yards to opposing offenses.  

Auburn comes into this game averaging 208 rushing yards per game and passing for 222 yards per game.  

Quarterback Jarett Stidham has looked more comfortable each week and has completed 72% of his passes for 1,110 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.  

Through the past 31 games, Auburn has only passed for 300 yards in two games during that span. One was the 24-10 win over Mercer (364 yards) and the other was in the 2015 home loss to Ole Miss (302 yards).  

Defensively, the Tigers are allowing 142 passing yards per game and are giving up only 116 rushing yards to opposing offenses.  

Auburn has allowed only one team (Missouri-218) to pass for over 200 yards this season.  

If Patterson can start fast on the road and score first, it could put pressure on the Auburn offense that has relied on a balanced attack to wear down opposing teams this season.  

Auburn has scored first in every game this season and has been able to establish the tempo of the game by running the football and working off of play action with Stidham. If the Rebels strike first, this can force an up-tempo game and force the Tigers from controlling the clock.  

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