Week 5 NCAAF Major Line Move: Clemson Taking It All Too Far vs. Syracuse

Friday, September 28, 2018 10:05 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 28, 2018 10:05 AM UTC

The No. 3 Clemson Tigers have finally pulled the trigger on Trevor Lawrence. But the college football odds for Saturday’s game against the Syracuse Orange are just too much.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record Week 4: 6-4 ATS; 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units), 0-1 Totals</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/syracuse-orange-vs-clemson-tigers-3448884/odds/" target="_blank" title="Check Syracuse - Clemson Odds">Syracuse vs. No. 3 Clemson</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET, Clemson (ABC)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Orange</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4400&amp;book=BetOnline" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Check this Top Rated Sportsbook!">BetOnline</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3448884, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,238,19,93,92], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>It is very, very difficult to make a sharp <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/" target="_blank" title="More NFL Picks">college football pick</a> this late in the week. Most of the beatable lines get snapped up within the first few hours after they open. But if you dig deep, and peel back the layers, you can find a few hidden gems closer to kick-off. Take last week’s Texas Tech-Oklahoma State matchup, for example. The Cowboys moved from –11.5 to as high as –15 before game time; <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/week-4-major-line-move-pokes-ride-too-far-away-bet-texas-tech-instead/86821/" target="_blank" title="Pokes Ride Too Far Away, Bet Texas Tech Instead">we recommended the Red Raiders</a>, and they won 41-17. Glorious.<br /><br />This week, we’ve got a special tangerine-themed treat for you. It’s the No. 3 Clemson Tigers (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) hosting the Syracuse Orange (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS), and the Tigers are available at –26 on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/" target="_blank" title="Live NCAAF Odds">NCAAF odds board</a> after opening at –21. That’s five points away from a somewhat magical number, and if we’re reading the advanced stats correctly, that’s five points too many.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Tiger Blood</strong></h2><p>All right, let’s roll out the projections and vig-free equivalent odds for this matchup:<br /><br /><strong>ESPN Football Power Index:</strong> Clemson 92.3 percent<br /><strong>Equivalent Moneyline (using </strong><u><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/"><strong>SBR Odds Converter</strong></a></u><strong>):</strong> Clemson –1199<br /><strong>Equivalent Point Spread (via Wizard of Odds):</strong> Clemson –21<br /><br />Yup, this is a classic case of the opening lines matching the projections, followed by the market weighing in and moving thing way too far. Except for one thing: The consensus figures at press time show 62 percent of bettors on Syracuse. That means the big/sharp money is on Clemson – in theory. Why is this happening?</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Eric Dungey was lights out from a clean pocket this past Saturday &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/OTdGcY2jzj\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/OTdGcY2jzj&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— PFF College (@PFF_College) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1044220662838173696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;24 de setembro de 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Two Heads Are Better Than One</strong></h2><p>We’re guessing it has something to do with Trevor Lawrence. Clemson’s promising freshman quarterback split duties with incumbent starter Kelly Bryant during the first four games of the season; now Lawrence (191.8 QB rating) is the undisputed BMOC, and Bryant is no longer with the team – he’s going to transfer elsewhere for his senior year. Assuming Lawrence doesn’t backslide, the Tigers should be better off with him at the controls.<br /><br />The thing is, having both Lawrence and Bryant in the lineup would have been even better for Clemson. That was head coach Dabo Swinney’s game plan, at least until Bryant decided to take his ball and go home. There isn’t really a Plan C if Lawrence has any issues on Saturday – or, heaven forbid, gets knocked out of the game.</p><p>Meanwhile, Syracuse have been on a roll under senior QB Eric Dungey, who was at the helm last year when the Orange surprised Clemson 27-24 as 24-point home dogs. They’ve already pulled off one upset this year, downing the Florida State Seminoles (–3.5 away) 30-7. The running game is clicking for third-year head coach Dino Babers; Dungey (6.9 yards per carry) and RB Moe Neal (4.9 yards) are moving the sticks and chewing up the clock, which will make it even harder for Clemson to cover this inflated spread. Let’s give Syracuse a shot at this bargain price, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
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