Week 4 Major Line Move: Pokes Ride Too Far Away, Bet Texas Tech Instead

Friday, September 21, 2018 12:11 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 21, 2018 12:11 PM UTC

The No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys have owned the Texas Tech Red Raiders in recent years, but the Week 4 college football odds have swung too far in OSU’s favor.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NCAAF picks record: 5-3 ATS (plus-2.00 units), 0-1 ML (minus-1.00 units)</strong></em></p><h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/texas-tech-red-raiders-vs-oklahoma-state-cowboys-3449060/odds/" target="_blank" title="Check Texas Tech - Oklahoma State Odds">Texas Tech at No. 15 Oklahoma State</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, Stillwater (FS1)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4395&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Check This Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3449060, "sportsbooksIds":[19,93,43,92,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>This is where the gold is at. If you didn’t get the chance to jump on the Week 4 <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/">college football odds</a> the instant they opened, no problem – we’re going to scoop up some value at the back end with our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/">NCAAF picks</a>. All it takes is a moment or two to read the line moves, a touch of math, and <em>presto</em>. Hey, <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/week-3-line-moves-rio-grande-rivalry-send-lobos-odds-upstream/86732/">it worked last week</a> when we took the New Mexico Lobos over the New Mexico State Aggies. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/college-football/massive-week-2-line-move-for-sooners-have-they-gone-too-far/86638">And the week before</a>, when we took the UCLA Bruins over the Oklahoma Sooners. Just sayin’.<br /><br />This week, we couldn’t help but notice the big line move in Saturday’s matchup between the No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys and the visiting Texas Tech Red Raiders. This used to be a close rivalry when Mike Leach was head coach of the Raiders, but the ‘Pokes have had their way with TTU of late, winning nine straight games dating back to 2009. Oklahoma State opened at –11.5 for this week’s tilt; they’re –14 as we go to press. That’s a spicy meatball.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Alan Bowman currently ranks as our third-highest graded quarterback in the nation.&lt;a href=\"https://t.co/WYjtV9dGP0\"&gt;https://t.co/WYjtV9dGP0&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/lmEJAJ8nLv\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/lmEJAJ8nLv&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— PFF College (@PFF_College) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1042866067876573185?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;September 20, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><h2><strong>Bowman Heritage Signs of Greatness</strong></h2><p>Given that Texas Tech has covered three of the last four games after getting rag-dolled during the early ‘10s, it wouldn’t be earth-shattering news if these odds have moved too far in the other direction. Projections and math, please:</p><ul> <li><strong>ESPN Football Power Index:</strong> OSU 79.1 percent</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Moneyline (using <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/">SBR Odds Converter</a>):</strong> OSU –378</li> <li><strong>Equivalent Point Spread (via Wizard of Odds):</strong> OSU –11.5</li></ul><p><br />Delightful. There are times when the odds move towards the projections after opening too loose, and there are times when they move away from the projections after opening right on the nose. This is a case of the latter. There is one point of concern, though: At press time, the consensus reports show 55 percent of bettors choosing Texas Tech. That means, in theory, that the big money is on Oklahoma State, and at least once upon a time, big money meant sharp money. In theory. It’s not as easy to get a big bet down these days if you’re a known sharp, and recreational bettors have deeper pockets now.</p><p>Either way, we’re still inclined to recommend the Red Raiders here. Aside from the lopsided SU rivalry warping public expectation, Texas Tech also has sneaky value (for now) with freshman back-up QB Alan Bowman, who took over for incumbent McLane Carter after he hurt his ankle in Week 1. This being college football, there isn’t nearly as much difference as the public thinks when it comes to the first and second (and third) units. This is a coaches’ sport, and Bowman has done very well running head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s version of the Air Raid offense – which Kingsbury himself did under Leach at the turn of the millennium. It’s the circle of life, my friends. <em>Hakuna matata.</em></p>
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