Week 2 Value Lies With New Mexico in Rio Grande Rivalry

Doug Upstone

Saturday, September 10, 2016 6:03 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 10, 2016 6:03 PM UTC

In the Land of Enchantment, this football game a pretty big deal. For those doing college football betting, not so much, as New Mexico and New Mexico State are two teams know one cares much about.

For this I-25 rivalry contest, even this could be coming to an end in the not too distant future or at least reduced, with New Mexico State being shown the door in the Sun Belt Conference, leaving them the option to return independent status, which would not work or dropping down to FCS status, which further widens the gap in talent.

The CFB odds at A-rated Intertops (check super bonuses) has New Mexico State as 12.5-point home underdogs with total of 62.5. Where should you be for college football picks on this game? Read on and decide.


New Mexico State a Complete Mess
How bad is the Aggies football program? They last went to a bowl in 1960 and considering there are great more bowls to find a way to stumble into, this is a rather unique accomplishment. You have to really want to be a head coach to take this gig and Doug Martin is in his fourth year and has a 7-30 SU record (12-22-2 ATS) after being fired from Kent State, another pillar of college football.

Other than when New Mexico visits every other year, Aggie Memorial Stadium is less half full of its 30,000 capacity.

The New Mexico State offense has improved since Martin started calling the plays last year and having running back Larry Rose III was a big reason why. Unfortunately, Rose is banged up, missed the opener last week and is "doubtful" Saturday, which limits what the Aggies can do.

Defensively, the Aggies allowed 45 points per game and 522 yards and did not look any different in surrendering 38 points to UTEP and 518 yards. This group in undersized in the defensive front and has inexperienced secondary.


New Mexico Keeps Improving
When Bob Davie arrived in Albuquerque, New Mexico was coming off three straight 1-11 seasons. The former Notre Dame head coach did not not get immediate results in his first three seasons with 11 total wins, but recruits were getting better and so was the performance on the field.

Last year the Lobos had first winning season since 2007 and played in the bowl for the first time in eight years.

Not satisfied, Davie wants to reach 10-win level and while that might be rather ambitious, the quirky 3-3-5 defense has all six front players back and the collection of linebackers is as good as there in the Mountain West.

Davie prefers the option offense, controlling the game with the run, but adding enough passing to keep the defense from loading the box.

Because recruiting in not easy for New Mexico, Davie wisely has his team spend a great of time on special teams to give his squad an edge in that department.


Rio Grande Rivalry Outcome
There will be a lot of emotion in this matchup, even more than usual, given New Mexico State's circumstances and playing at home. Without Rose this feels like a hopeless situation, yet the Aggies are 6-1 ATS as underdogs in this game if coming in off a loss.

However, no Rose is meaningful and while New Mexico State might give their best effort of the year, not sure how they stop the Lobos offense. Look for Aggies to be in the game heading into the fourth quarter, where they will wear down and New Mexico scores a couple times to cover and I improve to 8-2 in college football picks.

Free College Football Picks - New Mexico covers, grab the best priced line when clicking on Intertops.

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