Week 2 College Football Picks - Games With The Biggest Line Movement

Northern Illinois Huskies Player Scores TD

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, September 10, 2016 12:06 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 10, 2016 12:06 AM UTC

We had perhaps the best opening weekend of college football ever, Week 2 stinks in quality matchups. Here are the three games that have seen the biggest line move on college football odds at sportsbooks.

Ohio University vs Kansas (-3)
This opened with Ohio as a 2-point favorite across the college football odds board. Break up the Jayhawks! KU was unquestionably the worst Power 5 Conference team in the country last year in finishing 0-12, the school's second-ever winless season and first since 1954. KU lost at home to FCS school South Dakota State, was last out of the 128 FBS schools in total defense (561.0 yards allowed per game) and in scoring defense (46.1 ppg) and 123rd in scoring offense (15.3 ppg). No major conference team had gone winless since Washington in 2008. But the Jayhawks were a really young team last year, and while I'm not ready to say this team is going to approach .500 in 2016, KU did beat FCS school Rhode Island 55-6 in Week 1 to end a 15-game slide overall. The Rams were held to 219 yards of offense by a Kansas defense that gave up at least 40 points eight times last season. Coach David  Beaty will continue his quarterback rotation of junior Montell Cozart and sophomore Ryan Willis  for at least one more week with both playing well vs. Rhode Island as the Jayhawks scored their most points in nine years. So now comes Mid-American Conference team Ohio. The Bobcats, who are led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich, were an 8-5 bowl team in 2015. But they lost 56-54 in triple overtime at home to a bad Texas State team in Week 1. It was the first triple-OT game in Ohio history. The Bobcats did play a Power 5 team last year, losing 27-24 at Minnesota.

Free  College Football Pick: Kansas. It is 9-6 vs. the MAC and won the last meeting with a conference school by two TDs in 2014. KU is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five vs. the MAC.

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Connecticut vs Navy (-3.5)
This opened with  Navy at -6.5 among the top rated sportsbooks. The midshipmen lost record-setting quarterback Keenan Reynolds off last year's team. His replacement was to be senior Tago Smith, who had been waiting patiently behind Reynolds. But Smith tore his ACL  early in the second quarter of a 52-16 win against Fordham in Week 1. Smith had rushed for 97 yards and two touchdowns in that triple-option offense before going down. Will Worth is expected to start in his place against UConn. In his first three seasons at Navy, Worth had only one pass attempt and 10 total rushing yards while contributing on special teams. Against Fordham, he was 3-for-3 passing for 78 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 22 yards and a touchdown. I'm sure the QB change was a big reason for this line shifting. UConn was lucky to beat FCS school Maine 24-21 in Week 1. The Huskies blocked a 47-yard field goal attempt with 1:48 left and won it on Bobby Puyol's 37-yard kick with 11 seconds to go.

Free College Football Pick: Navy leads the all-time series 7-1 and will make it 8-1. Give the points. The Midshipmen have won 11 straight at home and 17 in a row against unranked opponents. The Middies are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 at home.

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Northern Illinois vs South Florida (-15)
USF opened as a 12-point favorite. Northern Illinois has been the Mid-American Conference's marquee program this decade but might be rebuilding this year. The Huskies, who have played in six straight MAC Championship Games, lost 40-34 in triple overtime at Wyoming to open the season. Christian Hagan missed a 38-yard field goal wide left at the start of the third OT. But Wyoming's Cooper Rothe missed a 48-yard field goal at the end of regulation and 37-yarder at the end of the first overtime. Huskies QB Drew Hare completed 24 of 39 passes for 329 yards and three touchdowns in NIU's longest game in school history. This will be Northern Illinois'  first regular-season game in Florida in 12 years. South Florida is a program on the rise and hoping to join the Big 12, although that's not likely. The Bulls closed last season winning seven of their final eight regular-season games before losing a shootout to Western Kentucky in the Miami Beach Bowl. In Week 1, USF set a school record with seven different players scoring in a 56-20 win over Towson. Quinton Flowers threw for 178 yards and two scores and rushed for two more. But top running back Marlon Mack took a  hard hit to the head and is questionable for this game. He rushed for nearly 1,400 yards last year. USF has won six of its last seven home games at Raymond James Stadium, host of this year's national championship game, while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 45-19.

Free College Football Pick: At 12, I would have taken USF. But go NIU at 15as your college football expert picks. The Huskies have covered 19 of their past 27 road games. 

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