Week 12 Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats: Georgia Tech Back as Top Cat, Florida State Still King Rat

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 14, 2017 3:00 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 14, 2017 3:00 PM UTC

Let’s look at the latest Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats rankings for Week 12 and offer up a troika of chalky picks based on some of these ATS Trends and the play of those teams involved.

1—Georgia Tech 7-1-1 ATS (Last Week: #3)

Like cream, Georgia Tech (5-4 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) has risen back to the top as the Top Cat on our weekly ATS Rankings with the Yellow Jackets now having gone a very profitable 11-1-1 ATS their L13 lined games after a 28-22 win as 3-point Home Underdogs on Saturday over #17 Virginia Tech in ACC play. Georgia Tech is now the only team in FBS with just one ATS Loss and GT has been one of the better ATS teams in College Football since 2016, going 14-5-2 (73.6%) over that span. Next up for WR Ricky Jeune (460 Receiving yards) and the Rambling Wreck, a Week 12 ACC date at Duke in a series which has strangely seen the Blue Devils go 3-0 ATS the L3 but just 1-5 ATS the L6 at Home in Durham.

When the two met last year in Atlanta, Georgia Tech won 38-35 but failed to cover ATS as 6½-point Home chalks. The line for this weekend’s game opened up at (Georgia Tech minus) 8½ on Sunday, but an early surge of Duke money has driven this Point Spread down as much as 2½ points to 6 at some Offshore sportsbooks and getting Georgia Tech giving less than 7 seems like a pick which could hold some value with one team 6 games over .500 ATS and under although the SU Records and Site (Durham) tell a tale of a game in which the Home side could possibly pull off what would be called an “upset,” with the Blue Devils currently as high as +213 on the Moneyline (Pinnacle). But with talented QB TaQuon Marshall running the prolific Georgia Tech Offense (31.3 ppg), it certainly won’t come easy for the stingy Blue Devils (20.6 ppg Scoring Defense, Tied #27).

 2—Wake Forest 8-2-0 ATS (Last week: Not ranked)

As we touched upon in our 5 Betworthy Things We Learned in Week 11 assignment, Wake Forest (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS) are a good FBS to learn about for NCAAF bettors, with the Demon Deacons going a profitable 14-4 ATS their L18 lined games (77.8%) after outscoring host Syracuse, on Saturday in ACC play, 64-43 after the Orange (3-8 ATS L11 at Home) held a nice 38-24 lead at Halftime in the Carrier Dome (WAKE -2½, 64, Heritage) only to see QB John Wolford and Wake (W5-6 ATS) outscore Syracuse 40-5 in the 2nd Half en route to the SU Win and ATS cover. After winning the award again this past weekend, Wolford has been named the CFPA National Performer of the Week two times and he helped the Demon Deacons set many new Records on Offense with Most Total Yards of Offense in a Game (734), Most TDs Accounted For in Game (6) and consecutive 300-yard passing games (3) against Syracuse.

Next up on the schedule for Wolford, 4th-year Head Coach Dave Clawson (26-17-1 ATS) and Wake Forest (6-2 ATS L8 Road) is a tough ACC date against #25 NC State at Home in a game which now finds the Demon Deacons from 1½- (Pinnacle) to as high as 2-point Favorites (BookMaker) after opening at -1 on Sunday afternoon at the Offshore line originators (Total 62, JustBet). The Trends show that NC State has held the upper hand in this series of late, with the Wolfpack going 3-0 ATS the L3 including a 33-16 thumping last year at NC State, losing SU and ATS by 3 points as 14-point Road Underdogs. Since 2014, the Demon Deacons are tied for the 8th-best team vs. ATS in FBS College Football, going 21-13 -1 (61.8%) and remain one of those solid teams many ignore, probably because the words “Wake” and “Forest” appear back-to-back and they have no funking idea what a Demon Deacon is or where the university is actually located. You know Wake Forest man. It’s the college of former San Antonio Spurs great Tim Duncan and Houston Rockets PG Chris Paul and has a reputation for having a better Basketball program than Football. The numbers don’t lie. Wake is the real deal on the gridiron, brother. Their opponents are well aware of this.


3—Iowa State 8-2-0 ATS (Last week: #2)

Iowa State (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) moves down a notch from #2 by still got the cheddar in Week 11, covering by 1 point as 8-point Underdogs to Oklahoma State in a 49-42 Loss and a game where the Under absolutely had no chance (61). Second-year Head Coach Matt Campbell (15-6 ATS) and Joel Lanning and the Cyclones two ATS Losses have come to Texas and West Virginia. Next up for the Cyclones in Week 12, a trip to Waco to face Baylor in Big 12 play on Saturday (FSN, 2:30 pm/11:30 am PT) at McLane Stadium (Artificial-Hellas Matrix) in a game which currently sees the visiting Cyclones as 9½-point Road chalks. Baylor (4-6 ATS) heads in having played 3 consecutive Unders while the Total has gone Under in 5 of the L6 Iowa State games with last Saturday’s 91-point game with the Cowboys the lone exception. The series Trends show Baylor is 7-6 ATS vs. the Cyclones since 1992 and 4-1 ATS the L5 meetings at Home in Waco, however, Iowa State (+12.0 vs. ATS) is 2-0 ATS the L3 years against the Bears, including a 45-42 loss at Ames last season where LB Marcel Spears and the the Cyclones (+1.0 TO Margin, #12) easily covered ATS as big 17-point Underdogs. The number says it all here, especially for a game being played in the Lone Star State. One of these teams has regressed. The other always seems solid.


4—Ohio 8-2-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

They play tonight (Tuesday) in the first game on the NCAAF Week 12 betting board, and like Wake Forest and Iowa State, Ohio (8-2 SU/ ATS) have rewarded their betting backers very nicely these past couple of FBS seasons, going 30-18-2 ATS since 2014 (62.5%) for the third best ATS Winning Percentage (fourth counting UAB) over that time span (Western Michigan, Temple). This week, Ohio faces Akron in a huge MAC game and both sides come in hot ATS with Ohio (15-10 SU L25 vs. Akron) on a 7-1 ATS its L8 roll and Akron—the biggest Under team in FBS at 9-1—having gone 6-1 ATS its L7. So now you know. The line in this game has already moved 2½ points on Bobcats money (Open OHIO -10½) to 13 at all Offshore sportsbooks (Monday) with the news that Zips QB Thomas Woodson is Suspended and will miss this game while RB Deltron Sands (Leg) left Akron’s last game with an Injury and is listed as Questionable, seemingly good things for both Ohio and the Under with the Zips possibly trying to slow the Pace.

One huge reason the Bobcats have evolved into such a good team both on the football field and at the betting windows, is 13th-year Head Coach Frank Solich (83-67-4 ATS) who has stayed put in Athens, Ohio for 13 years now, building the Bobcats program like a real man would—through Dedication, Intelligence, Recruiting and Hard Work. Expect the Cats (+8-4 vs. ATS) and the Ohio University Offense (42.9 ppg, #9 FBS) and Defense (24.1 ppg, #45) to both shine brightly for Solich under the primetime Tuesday night lights and for this team to roll to a 9-2 marks SU/ATS, topping Akron by 14 to 19.

 5—UAB 8-2-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

UAB? What? Hello (hello), is there anybody in there? Just nod if you can hear me. Is there anyone at home? Newbies Alabama Birmingham are on an ATS teams to bet list? Have you gone mad Pepe? (Well I think we know the answer to that already, as the wounded skies above, say it’s much, much too late.) How? And why? How you ask, they’re 8-2 (80%) sister and actually have been the best team on which to bet (percentage-wise) in FBS since 2016, going 15-6 ATS the L21 (71.4%) with a 7-4 ATS mark in 2015 and that 8-2 ATS tally so far this waning 2017 Regular Season. After covering their third straight and 7th in the L8 game, the Week 12 slate shows UAB (+7.1 versus ATS) UAB travelling to Florida to face the gators in a Non-Conference date in a meeting which sees the host Gators currently favored by 10½ points everywhere, down slightly from an opening 11 on Sunday on UAB action.

So can the Blazers upset the SEC’s Florida (L5 SU, L4 ATS) away in the Sunshine State? The number says maybe, but Logic says no, with a 5-game Losing Streak courtesy of a nasty SEC schedule (LSU, A&M, GEORGIA, MIZZOU, SC), 3rd-year Head Coach Jim McElwain and Gators likely finding a way to win in a ugly, low-scoring game, even despite the problems the Gators have had scoring of late (20, 16, 7, 17, 16). Florida (2-7 ATS)—an Honorable Mention rat—is 2-0 ATS against now Conference USA East Division member UAB since 1992. Second-year UAB Head Coach Bill Clark (15-6 ATS) is a deserving National Coach of the Year candidate and the perfect guy for UAB.


1—Florida State 0-8-1 ATS (Last Week: #1)

Who knew. Florida State (2-6 SU, 0-8-1 ATS) kept up its winless ATS ways, losing at #4 Clemson on Saturday at Clemson Memorial Stadium in Clemson, SC by a 31-14 score, losing for bettors getting 16 or 16½ and Pushing ATS for those riverboat gamblers who took (or laid) 17. This weekend, Head Coach Jimbo Fisher (46-49-7 ATS) and the ATS King Rat Seminoles get a break from the Heavens above—or at least the Schedulemaster—in the form of FCS side Deleware State in Tallahassee in a game most sportsbooks won’t put up a Point Spread on unless you’re the cutting-edge 5Dimes and you always have games like this (FSU -57 -120, 5Dimes) and are booking other Added (Colllege Extra) games. Florida State has incurred three SU Losses as ATS Favorites (NC State, Louisville, Boston College) and Fisher and this downtrodden Noles squad probably team that can’t wait for this 2017 Regular Season to finally end. The Seminoles (-1.11 TO Margin, #125 FBS) nightmarish and Bowl-less season started with an Injury to starting QB Deondre Francois against #1 Alabama and has been all downhill ever since. Why you do this to me Dimi?


2—Hawaii 2-7-1 ATS (Last Week: #3)

Hawaii (3-6 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) won its backers money in Weeks 1 and 2 this season (UMASS, FCS WEST CAR), and has now gone 0-7-1 ATS the L8 weeks, after losing to Fresno State on Saturday night in Week 11 MWC play in Honolulu on the Big Island, 31-21, barely losing ATS as 9½-point Home Underdogs in a game which was delayed by storms in the 1st Half (52½). The ATS Loss makes the Golden Rainbows 4-13-1 ATS their L18 lined games and Hawaii still hasn’t covered a Home game at Aloha Stadium since a Week 5 win over Nevada early last season when Barack Obama was still in the White House. Our next chance to fade the Rainbows (this is not a Skittles commercial) comes on Saturday in Week 12 at Utah State where sportsbooks have the host Aggies (5-5 SU/ATS) as 10½-point Favorites right now after opening at 11. With Utah State 3-0 ATS the L3 against Hawaii (HAW 14-USU 35—2015, USU 47-10 HAW—2014, HAW 31-USU 35—2012), everything points toward taking the hosts in this MWC clash from Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium (GameDay Grass) up the road from here in Sin City in Logan, Utah, with the Aggies playing in their last Home game of the season.

Hawaii will head in on a 2-13-1 ATS run and there’s no doubt that there will be a couple of Utah State (Full Game and 1st Half) tickets in my possession in the immediate future. (Screw the Sharps.) Of note: This will be the first meeting between these two since 2014, and, Utah State Overs are 8-2, one of the strongest Totals Trends this 2017 Regular Season along with Akron’s profitable 9-1 Under mark. The Rainbows are the worst team ATS the L3 seasons going a weak 10-25-1 ATS (28.6%).


3—UTEP 2-8-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

UTEP (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS) returns with a loud bang, or maybe just a dull thud after the Miners lost 45-10 to North Texas in Week 11, failing to cover the betting number as big 24-point Road Underdogs, Texas El Paso’s 4th straight ATS setback after winning 2 straight ATS after losing its first 4 to the line this 2017 Regular Season. Get it? Got it? Good. In short, they suck. And despite a 2-0 ATS mark the L2 meetings with Week 12 opponents Louisiana Tech, the Miners have gone 1-7 SU the L8 meetings with the Bulldogs (L4-5 ATS). Noteworthy: UTEP (-5.3 ppg vs ATS) has played 7 Unders and 3 Overs and the L2 meetings in this series both went Under to posted Total with just 32 and 35 points scored. UTEP is 13-20-1 ATS since 2015 heading into NCAAF Week 12. After losing by 24, 17, 35 and 24 (SO MISS 24-0), 17 (UTSA (31-14), 27 (MTSU 30-3) and 35 (NT 45-10), fading the ratty Miners (37.1 ppg Scoring Defense, #117) and taking Louisiana Tech seems like the logical pick here. Do they still make Logic?


4—East Carolina 2-8-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Welcome back you ratty Pirate bastards, we knew you razor-fearing, parrot-loving freaks wouldn’t be gone for long. Now swashbuckle your way up to the No. 4 spot in this Top 5 ATS Rats List rankings before we make you walk the plank. Aaarrrrgh. East Carolina (2-8 SU/ATS) lost another one ATS, this time by 1 point to Tulane as 6-point Home Underdogs in a 31-24 outcome last week at Home at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, North Carolina. The Pirates are the third-worst team ATS the L3 seasons (HAW, C-CAR), going 10-23-1 ATS (30.3%) the L24 games and ECU will strap on their helmets Saturday (CBSS, 12 pm ET/9 am PT) to face Cincinnati (4-6 ATS) at Home in AAC East play in a game which currently (and wisely) sees the visiting Bearcats as 3- to 3½-point Road Favorites at Dowdy-Ficklen (Grass). The Trends here reveal that East Carolina (-5.8 ppg vs. ATS) is 0-3 ATS the L3 meetings against the Bearcats, including a 31-19 outright Loss as 1-point chalks in Cincinnati last season, showing just how much this Pirates squad has regressed in a year. ECU possesses the worst Scoring Defense in the nation in FBS, allowing an embarrassing 45.0 ppg.


5—Indiana 2-8-0 ATS (Last Week: Not ranked)

Indiana (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) finally got its first Big Ten Win last Saturday in Week 11, beating Illinois, 24-14 at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, but the Hoosiers failed to cover ATS at most Offshore sportsbooks where 11 and 10½ were the predominant Point Spreads. With the ATS Loss, Indiana fell to a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS the L17 games (31.3%) and 1-6 ATS the L7 Big Ten Road games. The Hoosiers have now L7 straight ATS going from 2-1 ATS to 2-8 ATS and failing to cover ATS by 11, 1, ½, 1½, 9½, 15 and 1 in those 7 respective games, so 1st-year Head Coach Tom Allen (2-8 ATS) and his Crimson and Cream footballers haven’t exactly been that Point Spread-Lucky either.

WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. (63 Receptions, 716 yards, 7 TDs, 11.4 ypc) and the Hoosiers will welcome Rutgers to Memorial Stadium in Bloomington in Week 12 play on Saturday (IND 0-3 ATS L3) in a game which sees IU as 11-point Home chalks at the Rock, and the Hoosiers end the Regular Season at West Lafayette vs. rivals Purdue in the battle for the Old Oaken Bucket (Nov. 25).

Free College Football Pick: Iowa State -9 Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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